MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[jamestroll]

Looks like McCaskill has raised around 2.8 million dollars and is roughly even with Ann Wagner (MO-02) in fundraising.

Maybe McCaskill can win a third election she was not supposed to win

Obviously I would support Jason Kander as the nominee over McCaskill but that is not likely to happen. I support Kander because 1) he is hott and 2) his persona does connect better to Missourians and 3) less potential attacks on Kander.

But this is a race McCaskill can win.

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if mccaskill loses to someone like austin peterson or billy long.. i may have fainted.. but I live near a hospital so I should be treated very quickly.

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Let's help McCaskill win a third election in a that she is not supposed to win!


I AM IN LOVE WITH CLAIRE MCCASKILL.

We can do it!!

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Claire Mccaskill looks so much like an excellent mother also!! Happy mother's day.

Hindsight in 2020 no.. tnvolunteer and I are friends.


And I do not care how good looking Josh Hawley is.. I will NOT vote for him in 2018.

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McCaskill is entrenched! She will win in 2018!

GOP should focus on North Dakota and Indiana and protecting Nevada and Arizona (both of which will likely flip), as well as protecting their very vulnerable House majority.

Yes!!! This is correct.

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"McCaskill fan club" is a phrase that makes me want to vomit, lol.

You endorsed McCaskill and she is moderate

[jamestroll]

Wait till McCaskill wins in 2018 and runs for president in 2020.

She looks very presidential to me.

[jamestroll]

McCaskill is moderate.

She was not like Sherrod Brown who immediately said no to Gorsuch. She gave it thought.  I did disagree with her final decision on that issue ftr.

And she is not trying to pander at all. I think Missouri voters will respond well to that. Voters do not like pandering.

[jamestroll]

President Claire McCaskill does have a nice ring to it...

Do y'all agree?

[jamestroll]

Wagner seems to do better in polling compared to Hawley.

Still McCaskill is not in an impossible race by any means.

I did explain yesterday how Wagner's endorsement, unedorsement and re-endorsement of Trump will end up either being a huge blessing or huge curse for her I see no middle ground in this.

I also hope Democrats take opportunity in contesting the vacated seat. It is not an impossible district at all.

Also McCaskill's progressive punch grade is a D

[jamestroll]

Wagner seems to do better in polling compared to Hawley.

Do we know what Hawley's name recognition is like in comparison to Wagner?

Hawley is better known statewide but Wagner is not terribly far behind. She is not entirely anonymous outside the St. Louis metro.  Hawley just got off a statewide campaign but Wagner has been in office longer and the STL media market does dominate a large portion of the state. For someone who has not ran any ads last year Wagner's name ID is OKAY.

How the hell is Hawley going to explain this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_zzqEA9N2A

My sense is that this could potentially doom her during the primary, but if she survives the GOP primary mostly intact it it may assuage some suburban swing voters. What do you think?

Yea pretty much this. I know McCaskill's strategy for 2018 will be heavily rural based. Too early to count McCaskill out but if Wagner manages to win the GOP primary and Trump remains quite unpopular it could very well help her mitigate a Democratic wave.

I hope she knows she potentially leaves her house seat vulnerable in a strong Democratic year.

[jamestroll]

I AM IN LOVE WITH CLAIRE MCCASKILL.

I will faint if she loses.

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I predict Mccaskill will win next year and in 2020 win the presidency.

[jamestroll]

I predict Mccaskill will win next year and in 2020 win the presidency.

Wait wait wait what?

umm. yea if McCaskill can manage to win next year I believe she would be an exceptionally strong candidate for President in 2020.

Look at her picture she looks like a president!

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Petersen isn't DOA

In the general? No, though I agree that he'd be a weak candidate.
In the primary? Yes.

I'll be very surprised if the nominee isn't either Hawley or Wagner. In any case, I hope Missouri Republicans have learned their lesson from 2012 and 2016.

I hope so too

What lesson? They did well in 2016.

Anyways Peterson may not be DOA. I still have memories on how the Kentucky 2010 Senate race was supposed to be a possible Democratic pick up because Kentuckians are not libertarian people. It it does end up being McCaskill vs Peterson I would see this contest as the only match up in which McCaskill would be favored.  Also there is no Democratic president the voters to protest and Austin Peterson is not exactly going to be the biggest Trump ally either.

[jamestroll]

bump..

Let's hope Austin Peterson is the nominee so McCaskill can breeze to a third term that she is not supposed to win.

Not that she is necessarily DOA against Hawley or Wagner.

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Oh my...

If mccaskill wins reelection i cringe at the nationwide protests and violence from the GOP. 

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There certainly was evidence that Wagners house seat would be endangered for the GOP if open and McCaskill would face a strong challenge from virtually any Republican. That probably factored into Wagner's decision.

Her district is not as Republican as it looks.

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How many more threads do we need about Claire McCaskill.

you guys are too obsessed with her.

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Lol, Peterson? Really? What's he going to do? Reference memes in his ads like he did during the Libertarian primary? Congrats on your reelection, Senator McCaskill!

He won't be the nominee, and this race is winnable for Republicans (in fact, I still think it's the seat most likely to flip, followed by IN and NV).

God has told me Hawley will get the nomination and win

Can we stop pretending Peterson will be the nominee?

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Yes I am fine.

Also McCaskill has raised 3.1 million dollars the past three months. I know money is not everything especially considering McCaskill herself defeated Jim Talent despite a money disadvantage but it is still impressive.

Still keeping it at lean R for the time being though.

http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article160500334.html

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Isn't it funny on how early conventional wisdom is hilariously inaccurate?

A year ago it was assumed that Hillary Clinton would be president and Ann Wagner would be on her way to defeating McCaskill by a 2 to 1 margin or more.

Guess that will not be happening even if I am predicting a single digit loss for the incumbent as of now.

[jamestroll]

I have the race at no longer toss up but as Lean R because I looked at Claire McCaskill's astrological transits on November 6th 2018 and it appears she will have a narrow loss. I should analyze Josh Hawley's birth chart also.

But the huge caveat is I do not have birth times. Birth times are important in astrology.  Which can be explained here: http://myastrologylife.com/why-accurate-birthtime-is-important-to-your-astrology/

So I am hoping with birth times McCaskill has some REALLY good aspects..

but saturn transiting squaring her progressed sun is quite alarming to have on election night! So she will probably lose

[jamestroll]

After the riots recently McCaskill can probably be written off as unfair as that may be.

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Only 13 months and a week until my love loses.