2020 Poll Hype Thread

[TheLaRocca]

Things I could see qualifying as "meltdown"

Biden +17 or higher nationally
Biden +15 in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin
Biden +10 in Florida
Biden +6 in Texas or Ohio
Biden tied or leading in South Carolina

Biden crossing 60?

Biden up in Missouri?

Horrific senate polls in SC, MT, GA, AK, KS, IA, even AL???

Let’s not limit our imaginations!

Espy up in Mississippi?
Biden and Ahlers up in South Dakota?
Tennessee within single digits?

If Espy is up in Mississippi, Biden could be as well.

Why would Biden be improving in Mississippi even if he wins?

Seems to rural and given rural black turnout was down this time....not many educated whites either.

[TheLaRocca]

MS seems like one of the few deep south states Biden does not improve on HRC from.

Why would he? all rural and not much to go up w/rural blacks. Not many suburban or educated whites in MS.

South Carolina and Georgia are def swings to the left.

[TheLaRocca]

Large national leads and one shock polls in TX/GA.

If Biden has these large national leads it should be reflected in TX-GA. No way around it.

[TheLaRocca]

National: Biden +8
Georgia: Biden +1

[TheLaRocca]

If even Barack Obama could not unite the country after George W. Bush, does anyone really believe Joe Biden would be able to do so after Donald Trump?

Yes. Obama was a black, you see, and therefore 40-45% of the country hated him.

No. Biden is an old, angry, white, cis-male, you see. Therefore 40-45% of the Democratic Party already hates him.

Uhhh??

Add the Sanders vote and arguably the Bloomberg vote to boot. That take is embarrassing at this stage.

Lol yeah I didn't even think of that. Old white cis-males won a combined 85% of the primary vote and 97% of the delegates.

Not to mention Bloomberg, Biden, and Bernie won > 90% of the nonwhite vote lol. They got under 80 of the white vote lol.

[TheLaRocca]

The Marquette poll tomorrow might just be the most important poll left.  Hype level on 100.

That, DMR of Iowa, and ABC/WaPo Final National poll are the ones that I think are most important from here to the election.

Yep, ABC/Wapo especially nailed the national margin in 2016 and 2018.

When do Wapo and Selzer drop?

[TheLaRocca]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321401717972471809

I could be totally wrong, but I feel like these polls with Biden "struggling" with nonwhites are off. Trump could do maybe a few % better with Latinos, but there are just as many polls showing Trump doing just as bad as 2016 with nonwhites, so I feel like this narrative may collapse come election day.

Yeah if Biden were really "struggling" Texas and Georgia would not be in play.

They had this in 2018 lol.

[TheLaRocca]

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/523408-poll-trump-approval-reaches-48-percent

is this poll complete garbage?

oh my god

Fifty percent of adults under the age of 35 approved of Trump's job as president,

throw this right in the flaming dumpster.

Pro trump poll and online....

Yet they still have it +6 Biden hahaha

[TheLaRocca]

I wanna see

(1) ABC/WAPO
(2) Selzer

everything else will just show the same results...low single-digit Biden leads in the swing states and mid-single digits in the PA/MI/WI combo. Along with +8 Biden nationally w/some outliers.

[TheLaRocca]

lol, i told everyone here many times Greenfield was DONE. and Iowa was TRUMP.

Yet according to everyone here, Greenfield was a slam dunk.

Why can people not see the re-alignment going on here? And in the midwest?

[TheLaRocca]

Last ABC polls had Biden +11/12. it could be +7/+8. Not great but its fine going into election day.

trump leading to Biden leading by low digits(1-3)- Bad for Biden
Biden(4-7)= very underwhelming. could be mediocre if its in the final stretch
biden(8-10)=Good for Biden, could also be mediocre
Biden(11-12)= Great for Biden
Biden(+13)= absolutely fantastic

when is WAPO dropping?

[TheLaRocca]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

I wish you weren’t being sarcastic.

I am not being sarcastic.

Ok then spill.

I will not spill the full results publicly because the person who leaked them to me asked me not to do so and I respect those requests. All I will say is that the movement in PA/FL is within the margin of error.

Are the results fine enough that we don't have to doom post?

Yes, but I know people will because this is Atlas.

So in a nutshell Biden is ahead lol.

When does the national poll drop? that's the most accurate one.

[TheLaRocca]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

What have you heard about the national poll being released?

[TheLaRocca]

https://twitter.com/AstorAaron/status/1323070633144713217

https://twitter.com/AnonVAPerson/status/1323071261375909889

What does this mean?

They had Biden +14 in the last poll. Likely have the same margin. Don't want to be wrong if they publish and Trump overperforms.

[TheLaRocca]

https://twitter.com/AstorAaron/status/1323070633144713217

https://twitter.com/AnonVAPerson/status/1323071261375909889

What does this mean?

Even if Trump over performs by 4-5-6, that still gives Biden a 8-9-10 lead.

They had Biden +14 in the last poll. Likely have the same margin. Don't want to be wrong if they publish and Trump overperforms.

Yeah, they had no change in the state polls...

If it was Biden by +8-9 (which is the polling "consensus" RN they would have no problem releasing it) if it was a close race they would not either.

So that's why.

Don't think it means much even if they had Biden up by some crazy results. Every 'gold standard" (mason dixon in Florida) collapses eventually.