Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[LostFellow]

GA exit poll-
41% college
59% no college

2021 runoff was 38% college, 62% no college

Unfortunately in Georgia, a state where college educated whites vote 75-25 R and where the black vote is significantly represented in no college, this doesn't tell much.

Edit: Actually 60-40 R according to exits in 2020. Was still going off knowledge from 2012 ugh. I'd actually lean towards more college being good then in this case.

[LostFellow]

Warnock +3 in Fulton County compared to his 2020 margin with around 60% in according to ABC.

Likely the in-person early vote if it's the same pattern as before. If that's the case E-day and mail combined would lean R, but by how much is the question.

[LostFellow]

NYT projection is showing Rubio (+17) outperforming Young (+15) based off the votes so far... I don't think anyone expected that! Young number seems too low, but just shows how (non-atlas) red Florida is this election.

[LostFellow]

I'm guessing Walker will eclipse 50 in the count as all the EDay rural vote comes in, but then will fall under 50 as the Atlanta metro EDay trickles in, along with the mail vote. Needle was showing Walker +1.0 before the it went down, and was trending closer over time.

[LostFellow]

Western NC swings (a few completed counties so far) towards Dems since the early 2000s (albeit at a glacial pace) seems to be influenced by the same outdoorsy hipster migration like Colorado.

[LostFellow]

Paulding county, the reddest of the northern Atlanta collar counties is pretty much done, and Warnock is still ahead statewide, although well under 50 now.

Paulding seems odd since it has Walker at 74, a number not reached since Bush '04 (and a 20 point swing right). Possibly might come down if mail isn't in, or tabulation error?

[LostFellow]

Paulding county certainly is an error on NYT impacting the needle in GA. All other sites have a more reasonable result close to the 2020 results, as opposed to the +50 R 20 point swing on NYT to Bush 2004 southern suburb dominance.

[LostFellow]

NV exits have Laxalt+4.5. Perhaps it's not the Latino vote shifting R necessarily, but the Latino vote in "entertainment economy" communities shifting R.

Edit: Same CNN exits have CCM +20 with Latinos. Down from D+26 in 2020 NV exits, so assuming exits are correct, the shift among races seems uniform in Nevada.

[LostFellow]

NV exits have Laxalt+4.5. Perhaps it's not the Latino vote shifting R necessarily, but the Latino vote in "entertainment economy" communities shifting R.

Same CNN exits have CCM +20 with Latinos. Down from D+26 in 2020 NV exits, so assuming exits are correct, the shift among races seems uniform in Nevada.

The Needle has CCM +0.2.

I think the needle's prior is just the pre-election polling average. Good news for dems is that exits have been overrating republicans so far (sans the Ohio poll lol), but need to see the votes come in obviously.

[LostFellow]

MASSIVE Walker overperformance in Henry County.

Henry County was Biden+20 and is currently Warnock+29 (while still waiting for EDay ofc). Can you drop your schtick please? You're a smart guy honestly, you don't need to draw attention with your trolling.

[LostFellow]

Pima batch = 11,802
Hobbs 7,074 (60%)
Lake 4,728 (40%)

In light of that, it's pretty crazy that Ciscomani actually won this batch and he's now a pretty clear favorite given how he's running so far ahead of the top of the ticket.

I think Ciscomani is favored, but this is not a valid comparison. AZ-06 does not cover all of Pima county, as evidenced by the update to the governor race being 11.8k votes whereas the update to the congressional race being 6.5k votes. The area of Pima that AZ-06 covers is more R than Pima as a whole.