March 2021-- Which is Most Likely?

[Nyssus]

Despite how bellicose Trump's rhetoric may have been during his presidency, and may still be, as he demonstrated at CPAC, I find the notion of an official Trump 2024 campaign to be fairly unlikely, let alone a victory in the primary or even general election. However, it's true that he's been overestimated frequently, and it would be fairly foolish to discount such a possibility entirely.

Of course, we know that Trump's health is not nearly as great as it's been made out to be by his team of physicians, and the average 78-year-old is already in decline, both physically and mentally. That begs the question: will the former president even be in shape to run for president in 2024? Perhaps not. Four years is also a fairly long time in American politics, and he may not have the same allure as he had, even last year.

However, I suspect Trump will attempt to retain an active role in Republican Party politics. He's already displayed that, at least among Republicans in Congress, he retains very significant popularity, and despite his very polarizing presidency, there are only a handful of high-profile members of the GOP who are willing to publicly dissent, despite their views behind closed doors.