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HCP
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,550
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« on: June 29, 2020, 02:07:41 PM » |
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« edited: June 29, 2020, 02:15:22 PM by Dad »
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I was curious about the potential for a map that screws Stefanik out in 2022; even if it's a Republican wave year it should be screwy enough to knock her off in 2024 barring any insane trends.
It's rather ugly, I'd admit. But basically the current NY-21 is dismantled and split among 6 districts, each of which would have very little of Stefanik's base for her to win a primary. (The numbers are temporary just for the purpose of this experiment.)
NY-01 - Double bunked with Katko. It's also D+3 and a narrow/plurality Clinton win, which means that even if Stefanik were to win a primary, she would have a tough race in the general.
NY-02 - Has a large portion of the Democratic-leaning area of the current NY-21; it also overlaps with the most significant parts of NY-19. a D+2.5 district, so another competitive general if Stefanik would win - probably against Delgado.
NY-03 - Contains Stefanik's home. It's double-bunked with Tonko, who almost certainly wins in this D+5 district, almost double-digit Clinton win.
NY-04 - The rural-most parts of NY-21 are now moved into a monstrosity of a district; Brindisi, being a strong candidate in Utica, would be an odds-on favourite in this district, which is R+1 (Compared to the current R+6 lean of the 22nd). The district's reliance on college dems in Ithaca and Binghamton could mean lower midterm turnout leads to a Republican win, however. I doubt that Stefanik would be that Republican.
NY-08 - This Southern Tier-anchored district takes in parts of Fulton and Montgomery counties. Tom Reed is safe in this R+11 district, and Stefanik would not be able to defeat him on his home turf.
NY-09 - This district takes in the few swingy parts of Fulton and Montgomery and places them in an R+1 Hudson Valley district. It's 95% new to Stefanik, so it'll be a tough primary and general for her.
I don't believe this is anything close to what would be passed, or what would be considered a good map. But it does provide a possible way to screw over a potential rising star in the Republican Party, although the state's partisan lean limits her upward trajectory regardless. Of course, a commission would never allow for this. But it's good fun.
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