Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.jconline.com/story/opinion/columnists/dave-bangert/2018/10/15/bangert-tippecanoe-co-early-voting-up-700-so-far-over-14-midterm/1644872002/

Early voting in Tippecanoe County, Indiana at ~90% of 2016 pace, 700% of 2014 pace.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/knoxvotes/status/1052733389617422336

https://twitter.com/nprpolitics/status/1052848283456958464

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1052995794477801472

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Wacky Jacky just scalped UTDH

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053852986550607872

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1054253089731969024?s=21

This is rather disappointing, to be honest.

Yeah, though Washoe is encouraging. Hopefully Dems can bring their margin up in Clark tomorrow.

Yep

https://twitter.com/Jammin27Ben/status/1054258826667380736

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054258638284451840

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

Ralston just updated his blog again.

- Sunday turnout slump in Clark was expected, with the caveat that Republicans have managed a very aggressive turnout campaign over this weekend.

- Weekend turnout in Clark was about 4% of RV, closer to 2010 (when Reid survived) than 2014 (2%) or 2016 (7%).

- After considering absentees, Dems lead the EV 44-38, or about 1% better than their statewide registration advantage.

- Turnout in rural areas should be monitored over the next few days. If higher than usual, this is naturally a boon for Republicans.

- Democrats boosted their leads in NV-3 and NV-4 plus some key Senate districts; mixed results in key Assembly districts.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/EdEspinoza/status/1054401592940810240

[TheRocketRaccoon]

If anyone wants to read Schale's quick analysis, it's here.

http://steveschale.com/blog/2018/10/23/14-days-out-to-election-and-fsu-basketball.html

Dems performing at a benchmark somewhere between 2014 EV (bad) and 2016 EV (very good). They cut the total GOP edge from 5.75% to 3.9%.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

This thread makes me want to roll my eyes out of my head

Why? Do you not trust the analysis of expert Atlas posters over some rando called Steve Schale?

[TheRocketRaccoon]

First weekend - Democrats are turning out in droves!
First week - Not looking good for Democrats!
Second weekend - Huge surge for Democrats!
Second week - Republicans are making a comeback!
Third weekend - Democrats have probably won.

Hahahahahaha

Hit the nail right on the head.

I don’t remember Ralston being concerned about Hillary in the slightest during EV in Nevada

2010 patterns =/= 2012 patterns =/= 2014 patterns =/= 2016 patterns in NV. It is really hard to tell what is going on now.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

I'd like to see a more systematic comparison of NV figures to previous years. So far it all sounds pretty impressionistic.

My guess would also be that 2010 is the best basis of comparison, but the big caveat is that the electorate has grown quite a bit since then. Maybe % of registered voters would be a better metric than raw votes.

2010 is an interesting case, although we don't have the partisan breakdown for those years. Dems ended Week 1 +8,800 in Clark, -125 statewide.

But the Reid machine went into overdrive on Week 2: Clark was turning out 13-18K voters daily all the way to Week 2 Sunday, then 20K+ Monday-Thursday and 34K Friday. EV ended with +23,000 in Clark and +6,500~ statewide.

With this in mind, I'm not sure the current vote totals are the worst place to be.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Early voting is tapering off a bit in TN.

During the first few days, TN had about 85-90% of the 2016 early voting turnout.

This is now down to about 75% of the 2016 numbers, incl. yesterdays numbers.

But while rural counties had a huge drop in early voting yesterday, big urban counties like Davidson remained almost unchanged compared with previous days ...

This sounds exactly like what is happening in NV...

[TheRocketRaccoon]

FL EV + absentee: The % gap between D and R returns fell from 3.21% end Friday to 2.96% end Saturday. (Absolute # in gap increased from 65,145 to 75,676.)

2,558,850 votes have now been cast.

R: 1,091,203 (42.6%)
D: 1,015,527 (39.7%)
Other: 15,901 (0.6%)
NPA: 436,219 (17.0%)

[TheRocketRaccoon]

FL EV + absentee: The % gap between D and R returns fell from 3.21% end Friday to 2.96% end Saturday. (Absolute # in gap increased from 65,145 to 75,676.)

2,558,850 votes have now been cast.

R: 1,091,203 (42.6%)
D: 1,015,527 (39.7%)
Other: 15,901 (0.6%)
NPA: 436,219 (17.0%)

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1056547539040780288

Gap probably closes by another 0.15 to 0.2%.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056717680688848897

D+5.6 today in Washoe.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1057328570496765952?s=19

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1057329627738267648?s=19

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1057330449997979648?s=19

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/BenjaminWHanson/status/1058738359114305536