As of now, probably either 50/50 or 55/45 Cramer. The reality is that Trump has polarized politics everywhere, and he is enormously popular in North Dakota. Dems won't be able to flood the state with volunteers for a midterm the way they can for a special election (same goes with most other elections honestly), and I doubt that Heitkamp can win without a serious assist from Cramer at this point.
With that being said, Cramer seems more gaffe prone than your typical boring conservative politician, and I have no doubt that he will say something that brings Heitkamp into contention. The only question is how bad his gaffes will be and whether they will lift Heitkamp (along with the environment) to another win.
Recent polling showed that in Trump territory like PA-18, a Trump endorsement had little impact on how people planned to vote. Obama could never carry candidates across the line, why do we expect Trump to do the same?
