Ontario Election 2022

[beesley]

I wouldn't call them African-Americans in Canada.

Reminds me of when some American newsreader called Nelson Mandela an "African-American."

There was one black (Ghanaian British) girl at my school, and she was definitely referred to as African-American (amongst other things) on multiple occasions.

[beesley]

Who are the big star candidates this election? I know they are often announced late, but there seems to be a lack of them, barring existing political and civic figures like Ted Hsu and Irwin Elman.

[beesley]

Interesting that in Kathleen Wynne's old riding of Don Valley West - the PCs are running the black former police chief of Toronto, the NDP is running the Jewish former Child Advocate of Ontario and the Ontario Liberals are running a generic corporate executive who no one has ever heard of. 

I wonder how much of a role Del Duca has in the process of candidate selection. The procedures seem very unclear to me.

[beesley]

Also given that Wynne didn't announce a resignation immediately, it made one harder as Nathalie Des Roisiers resigned fairly soon into the term.

[beesley]

Also curious to know if Kevin Yarde is seeking re-election in Brampton North?  I don't think that has been announced yet.

He's facing a nomination challenge from someone called Sandeep Singh.

[beesley]

Also curious to know if Kevin Yarde is seeking re-election in Brampton North?  I don't think that has been announced yet.

He's facing a nomination challenge from someone called Sandeep Singh.

I'm quite familiar with the inner workings of the NDP and I can assure that incumbents do not face nominations unless it has the blessing of party HQ.  

Do you have any idea why Yarde in particular would be targeted in that way? He would've been one of the last people I'd expect to receive one; he certainly seemed a stronger MPP than many of his colleagues. So perhaps a personal issue or dispute? Or wanting an Asian candidate in the riding (which would strike me as a pretty poor reason).

[beesley]

A better comparison for NES might actually be Ralph Goodale. The guy just kept winning and winning in a province where being a Liberal candidate usually only wins you a participation trophy. Of course, he kept winning until he lost. Being in Trudeau's cabinet did him no favours in Regina.

Anyway, back to OnPoli. An interesting by-product of the 2018 election is that universal swings are gonna be really bad at predicting Liberal strength. In 2018, personal brand played a big role in the few ridings where the Liberals didn't get absolutely humiliated.

For example, 338Canada says Eglinton-Lawrence will be the 5th most Liberal-friendly seat in the 416, that Mississauga-Lakeshore is the most Liberal-friendly seat in Mississauga, and that Oakville is more likely to go Liberal than Ajax.

Obviously, universal swings are never perfect, but the ridings I mentioned are typically much less Liberal than their surroundings. Expect to see some really bad riding projections this time out.

I think looking at history of riding and demographics as well as issues of day probably a better predictor than uniform swing.  Uniform swing largely a British thing anyways where it seemed to work in past although they now use a thing called MRP, but those polls are expensive and usually survey 10K to 20K thus why they can accurately call ridings.  I don't believe anyone is willing to pay a pollster that much.  They probably do this for parties, which cost a lot of money, but never public.

MRP is a polling method designed to provide you with those more accurate demographic projections. Uniform Swing doesn't have anything to do with the way the polls are carried out. And on the point of public polls, the YouGov MRP was probably the biggest poll of the 2017 election - and memorable as being the only actual pollster who was remotely correct (other than the Exit Poll itself, if you want to count that).

[beesley]

A quirk of that projection is that Toronto-St. Paul's becomes the Liberals' only safe seat in Toronto: Scarborough-Guildwood is a Tossup and the two Don Valley seats are shaded lighter.

Their methodology also means that Thunder Bay-Atikokan is listed as safe, which in theory ought to be a  tougher fight than either Don Valley riding, but we'll see.

[beesley]

A quirk of that projection is that Toronto-St. Paul's becomes the Liberals' only safe seat in Toronto: Scarborough-Guildwood is a Tossup and the two Don Valley seats are shaded lighter.

Their methodology also means that Thunder Bay-Atikokan is listed as safe, which in theory ought to be a  tougher fight than either Don Valley riding, but we'll see.

Don Valley West at least should be a decent Tory pickup opportunity given the current numbers. In 2014 and 2018, it was a leader's seat, which gave the Liberals a boost there. But Wynne isn't running for re-election, Tories have a star candidate in Mark Saunders, and DVW is consistently one of the more Tory-friendly 416 seats in federal elections.

Thanks for filling me in.

[beesley]

If the Ontario Libs do well and get in first, what would their cabinet be given how many of their more experienced members have moved federally or have retired after 2018?

Remember Rachel Notley's 2015 cabinet? Only 4/12 ministers (the only 4 incumbents, including herself) had served in the legislature before. The cabinet would expand throughout her term. Also, Del Duca made a big thing about diversity for his candidates - 50% women and a substantial number of visible minorities, so that would be a factor. There are a few people who have a very strong chance if they get in - Kate Graham in London North Centre and former MP Ted Hsu in Kingston springs to mind.