French presidential election, 2022

[beesley]

I'm watching from the 3éme circonscription pour les Français établis hors de France.
We voted last time:

If you don't mind me asking, what made you come to the UK? Are you ever planning to return?

I think the results for each district are available on Wikipedia.

[beesley]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

[beesley]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

Macron, it seems, is perceived as some sort of southern European leftist here. Just look at the Telegraph.

Did you support anyone last time round? From the little I know about you, you seem somewhat Eurosceptic, economically centrist, a bit socially conservative; but generally quite moderate. Modern SDP? I think there are a lot of voters like that in France. Not sure who you might like. Bertrand?

You've read me well, only correction is that I'd say I'm more economically left of centre and pro-localism/regionalism and also not uniformly conservative as I'm not against immigration - perhaps the continuity SDP would be the best fit for me, I've never thought to join them or anything. As I have said before, I've voted for four different parties in the past.

I didn't feel a strong attachment to any of the candidates last time - if I had to pick I would've said Dupont Aignan but I went off him a bit after he endorsed Le Pen as emphatically as he did. I liked Lassalle's regionalism but he seemed a bit crazy at times; Fillon I thought was worst major candidate for a whole variety of reasons, and I disliked Macron for his elitism and Europhilia. Hamon I have no strong opinion of, though I thought he was better than Valls and I disliked all the candidates that were extreme: Arthaud, Asselineau, Cheminade, Le Pen, Melenchon, Poutou etc. (the latter two I wouldn't vote for but I could sort of respect them as politicians.)

[beesley]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

Macron, it seems, is perceived as some sort of southern European leftist here. Just look at the Telegraph.

Did you support anyone last time round? From the little I know about you, you seem somewhat Eurosceptic, economically centrist, a bit socially conservative; but generally quite moderate. Modern SDP? I think there are a lot of voters like that in France. Not sure who you might like. Bertrand?

You've read me well, only correction is that I'd say I'm more economically left of centre and pro-localism/regionalism and also not uniformly conservative as I'm not against immigration - perhaps the continuity SDP would be the best fit for me, I've never thought to join them or anything. As I have said before, I've voted for four different parties in the past

Didn't you identify as Tory in a certain other place?

Yes I did - but (as I've said before) I've changed my views a lot to become more economically left and socially moderate in the past few years as I have had to become more economically independent and after gaining an appreciation for the lives of those less fortunate, but I've maintained my Euroscepticism.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/lucas_jaku/status/1382607044558086144?s=20

https://twitter.com/lucas_jaku/status/1382607586487373829?s=20

Similar sort of age patterns at the extremes to last time though perhaps the differences are more pronounced.

[beesley]

https://www.lci.fr/politique/sondage-exclusif-presidentielle-2022-le-scenario-macron-le-pen-se-renforce-la-presidente-du-rn-en-hausse-2186903.html

In this poll from May 24th, Macron beats Le Pen 54-46

He does it by winning under 25s and over 65s, but Le Pen would win the 25-64 year old groups

How would you interpret this, and what do you think this means for possible evolution going towards the election and beyond?

I think these coalitions make more sense than one might think. If anything the vote against Le Pen from the elderly is still a conservative one - not voting for someone who isn't anything like a traditional French leader. Le Pen isn't a cultural Catholic either, is she? A lot of that group will remember De Gaulle's final years. The vote among the under 25s is more understandable, with their liberal internationalism and many of them being students or not actively looking for work.