USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[beesley]

286 FREIWALL

[beesley]

How close were we to ID-3?

[beesley]

Apologies if someone has already mentioned this, but if there was a significant Hispanic undercount, would it have affected Mexican/Central American Americans more than groups like Cuban Americans?

[beesley]

Something I realized is that the July 1, 2020 estimate for Austin's population puts it at 995,484.

Considering the city's rapid growth, and considering it's been almost a year since that estimate, I think it's safe to say that Austin has now surpassed 1 million people in its city limits, making its northern Texas neighbor Fort Worth the largest city in the United States to have less than 1 million people (which it should surpass by 2025). That now means that 11 cities in the USA now have 1 million people or more.

By the 2030 census, besides Austin and Fort Worth, I would expect the following cities to surpass 1 million people:

Jacksonville, Florida
Columbus, Ohio
Charlotte, North Carolina

This would make 15 cities with a population of 1 million or more, and based on growth trends, Seattle would likely become the largest city in the country to have less than 1 million people, as it (along with possibly Denver as well) would likely surpass Indianapolis and San Francisco in population.

Also to add-on, Texas is now the state with the most cities with 1 million people or greater, with 4 cities (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin) compared to California with only 3 (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose).

Is Columbus' growth that rapid? I would've thought most of the growth would be outside the city limits.

[beesley]

Something I realized is that the July 1, 2020 estimate for Austin's population puts it at 995,484.

Considering the city's rapid growth, and considering it's been almost a year since that estimate, I think it's safe to say that Austin has now surpassed 1 million people in its city limits, making its northern Texas neighbor Fort Worth the largest city in the United States to have less than 1 million people (which it should surpass by 2025). That now means that 11 cities in the USA now have 1 million people or more.

By the 2030 census, besides Austin and Fort Worth, I would expect the following cities to surpass 1 million people:

Jacksonville, Florida
Columbus, Ohio
Charlotte, North Carolina

This would make 15 cities with a population of 1 million or more, and based on growth trends, Seattle would likely become the largest city in the country to have less than 1 million people, as it (along with possibly Denver as well) would likely surpass Indianapolis and San Francisco in population.

Also to add-on, Texas is now the state with the most cities with 1 million people or greater, with 4 cities (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin) compared to California with only 3 (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose).

Is Columbus' growth that rapid? I would've thought most of the growth would be outside the city limits.

Columbus has had a very aggressive annexation policy. In Ohio, cities can annex with agreement of landowners. Columbus makes deals with landowners to provide water and sewage in exchange for being annexed. If you are developing a tract of land for a shopping center, or an office park, or warehouses, or apartments or single-family residences, you are going to need reliable infrastructure - water, sewage, and roads. The developer will be expected to put in the sewer and water lines and internal roads, but they need to connect to trunk lines. The roads will need to connect to major arterials, so the developer might also pay for stop lights and intersection expansion. But all of this will benefit the developer since people will be able to get to the shopping center or office park or out of the residence. So Columbus has lots of develop-able land.

Ohio also has adopted restrictions on creation of new cities. It used to be easier to incorporate residential areas which would incorporate and block expansion of Cleveland and Cincinnati. There are now minimum population requirements at least around major cities. While there has been some effort to contain Columbus it hasn't been wholly successful.

This shows the Columbus city limits. Incorporated cities, including Columbus are shown with a gray tint. Be sure to zoom in.

Columbus zoning map

Thanks for the detailed response.