Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[beesley]

- 2 MSPs (James Kelly and Claudia Beamish) are more likely to be out of Holyrood after May.

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Slight difference - Kelly still has a small chance in Rutherglen, where he only narrowly lost, whereas Beamish is from the Clydesdale area (Labour were third last time, I believe). But yes, they are more likely than not to be out.

Also, if anyone wants a resource (not connected to me) then http://ballotbox.scot/ should be helpful.

[beesley]

More damaging stuff coming out by the hour.

Even now, I am sceptical this will massively affect May's elections - ie the SNP are still going to win. But could it yet make the difference between getting a pro-independence majority or not?

That and whether Anas Sarwar can change things at all for Scottish Labour (probability: unlikely, but better than Leonard)

[beesley]

are they unionists that vote snp if so why?

Quite a few, generally for one of the following reasons:

• They like Nicola Sturgeon, her policies in government and her role as an advocate for Scotland more generally. This applies particularly in some left-wing unionist areas e.g. Leith.
• They believe that the SNP are the strongest voice for Scotland at Westminster and will fight for Scotland more strongly than Labour
• The fact her SNP are more electable a government than Scottish Labour which is in frequent disarray. Jeremy Corbyn was also never that popular in Scotland.
• They are particularly pro-EU and staunchly in favour of rejoining (it doesn't make sense since that would require independence, I know), which the Tories aren't and national Labour aren't.
• They are left-wing or anti-Brexit tactical voters in a few areas against the Tories. Electorally, only the SNP really compete in all geographical areas of Scotland. The Tories are weak in the central belt where SNP non-tactical support is too strong anyway, and Labour are weak in the Highlands, North East and South.

[beesley]

Salmond has been giving his evidence today.

I'm not a fan of Sturgeon at all, and I think she's very much in the wrong, but I doubt this is going to have the impact certain people want it to. It's also notable how some news agencies have hardly reported on it at all, while others are making it out to be some sort of Scottish Watergate.

[beesley]

Fortissat is as close to a Labour bastion you can find.

Such is Scotland that the most rural ward in N Lanarkshire ends up being the biggest Labour bastion in the local authority.

[beesley]

Fortissat is as close to a Labour bastion you can find.

Such is Scotland that the most rural ward in N Lanarkshire ends up being the biggest Labour bastion in the local authority.

North Lanarkshire is a mining area, though, and unlike in England former mining areas are still some of Labour's strongest areas (hence Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath being competitive, for example.) So rural/urban isn't necessarily the most informative frame to see things through.

True, I hadn't thought of that. I suppose you could say the same about the SNP and new towns.

[beesley]

Well looks like I was wrong in thinking this wouldn't stick, but Sturgeon is clearly in the wrong here. This article provides a good summary of what's happened up until now: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56259056

In summary, there have been calls for Sturgeon to resign after it was revealed she breached the ministerial code and misled the Scottish Parliament, and the opposition Tories have tabled a no confidence motion.

I also mentioned it in the UK General Discussion thread.

[beesley]

The way Alex Salmond has been adopted as a hero by the right-wing press just goes to show how much bad faith is behind this campaign.

Well obviously. Let me introduce you to something known as 'politics.' The same politics that has informed how Nicola Sturgeon has behaved, in my view.

Any idea what the feelings are atm within the SNP itself, the MPs and MSPs in Westminster and Holyrood? Have they mostly stayed quiet on this? Is there a notable "anti-Sturgeon" faction among them?

Traditionally the SNP has been divided into 'gradualists' and 'fundamentalists'. Fundamentalists want the SNP to fight for independence above all else and as a key policy aim without pursuing devolution or a referendum, whereas gradualists want independence but through democratic means (e.g. referenda) and through the accumulation of powers in the Scottish Parliament. The fundamentalists tend to be more left-wing. The two wings of the party faced eachother one on one in 2000, when gradualist John Swinney (the man who released all this evidence) defeated fundamentalist Alex Neil (now one of the highest profile supporters of Brexit within the SNP) 2 to 1.

Since devolution however the SNP leadership has generally adopted a gradualist position, including Alex Salmond, so the division is more on the Salmond/Sturgeon factions. The Sturgeon faction has more representation, especially at Westminster, where only a handful of MPs are in the Salmond camp. One of those MPs is Joanna Cherry who wanted to move to the Scottish Parliament but had the rules changed to prevent her from seeking the nomination whilst still an MP. That nomination has now gone to key Sturgeon ally and former SNP Westminster Leader Angus Robertson. So there are a number of proxy wars that take place. However none of them have really commented on this particular case.

Seems odd for a no confidence vote to be called before she's actually given evidence. Probably means it's more likely the SNP will act in unison on this, than if they'd had another day of bad blood being aired in which to damage themselves?

Well, you'd think so. But don't expect the unionist parties in Scotland to be good at politics.

[beesley]

There isn't much meat in this to chew. There wasn't last week with Salmond and based on the questions today I think it's clear that what people think it going to fall on partisan lines anyway.

There is some 'very online' support for Sturgeon that has been unexpected though, particularly along the lines of Salmond's gaslighting of women who accused him of misconduct is extending to his treatment of Sturgeon.

I think you hit the nail on the head there, but to be honest I don't know why we ever expect anyone to be bi-/non-partisan. I think the mistake opposition parties (and arguably Alex Salmond) have made is to try and make this into more of a scandal than it actually is. The fact that there are two accusers involved seems to be an inconvenience for them. I agree that Sturgeon is definitely in the wrong but we've seen this before with Canada's SNC-Lavalin scandal, in the sense that it matters most to partisans and is not going to be high up the priority list for many ordinary people, particularly in the pandemic. It's hardly a coincidence Sturgeon announced the potential easing of lockdown restrictions; she's politically astute enough.

Richard Lochhead said that a lot of new people had joined the Moray SNP, or at least more people than usual attended their meeting. Not that I think Douglas Ross should be worried as if he loses Moray he was unlikely to win it anyway, and he's obviously the strongest candidate they could have found.

[beesley]

Two technical Labour gains in the North Lanarkshire Council by-elections, but without gains in actual vote share, because this is STV.

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1367861677765574658?s=20

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1367788768317542403?s=20

[beesley]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-suggests-no-vote-lead-as-salmond-inquiry-drives-voters-away-from-scottish-independence-3157134

Latest poll on Scotland Independence shows a No lead 46-43.  It seems the entire Salmond affair is making a difference, at least on the short term.

It seems to be the case, but I always remind myself Andrew Scheer isn't the Canadian Prime Minister.

If I were Anas Sarwar I wouldn't focus on it because Alex Salmond and the Tories will. Call it out, but position yourself as the clear, centre-left alternative.

[beesley]

Stephen Kerr, the former Stirling MP who was defeated in 2019 by the largest margin of any incumbent in Scotland, has carpetbagged over to the Central Scotland region and is top of the Conservative list there after two MSPs retired. As Graham Simpson is again second the low female representation in the party looks set to be even smaller.

For some reason they aren't announcing all their list candidates in one day, with the North East Scotland list being announced tomorrow.

[beesley]

In West of Scotland, sitting MSP Maurice Corry has been dumped down to 8th place in the Conservative list.

Any reason why that may have happened, other than the lack of a Ruth endorsement?

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/AnasSarwar/status/1371053205967241224?s=20

Sturgeon and Sarwar will face off against each other, but Sturgeon should still win, it's 'Likely SNP' at worst at the moment.

If Labour were to do well I could imagine a scenario where Labour gain 5 or so constituencies (Provan, Pollok, Kelvin, Rutherglen, and either Anniesland or Maryhill) but Sarwar isn't elected because he's second on the list. As entertaining as such a scenario might be it's unlikely.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/AnasSarwar/status/1371053205967241224?s=20

Sturgeon and Sarwar will face off against each other, but Sturgeon should still win, it's 'Likely SNP' at worst at the moment.

If Labour were to do well I could imagine a scenario where Labour gain 5 or so constituencies (Provan, Pollok, Kelvin, Rutherglen, and either Anniesland or Maryhill) but Sarwar isn't elected because he's second on the list. As entertaining as such a scenario might be it's unlikely.

Of course in reality this does not really matter since whoever loses (Sarwar almost certainly) would get in on the list: the only vaguely realistic scenarios where this does not happen would require the SNP to only lose Glasgow Southside and then not win a seat on the list (very unlikely) or a scenario where Labour make a number of breakthroughs in other Glasgow seats to the point where they are not entitled to any list seats (again: very unlikely).  I suspect if the latter was the case Sarwar would be standing in one of the other Glasgow seats: the fact that he's contesting Southside suggests that is not going to happen.  Its also not totally out of vanity: his father represented Govan (the predecessor seat) in Westminster from 1997 to 2005 and he's got links to the area.

Of course, I just found the idea entertaining.

[beesley]

A nice campaign video for you all from an independent candidate, though I feel the non-Brits might not get it as intended.

[beesley]

A nice campaign video for you all from an independent candidate, though I feel the non-Brits might not get it as intended.

His appearance reminds me of someone:

 

Funny as he's one of the most anti SNP public figures. I guess there is no correlation.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1374037808017506308?s=20

[beesley]

It appears as if the Alba Party is only standing on the list. I have a feeling this move will backfire in some way but I can't think how. It sort of undermines the idea Salmond isn't acting for political reasons though. If it does go as hoped however, it will be great for him.

[beesley]

Unless they start going against the SNP this is simply a great way to maximise Pro-Independent MSP’s and game the list system, I can’t see why unionists are cheering this.

Exactly, which is the whole point of Alliance for Unity as well. The risks are high for Salmond which is why I think it may backfire, but if Salmond gets a pro-independence majority in which Alba are kingmakers... Not saying that will happen.

[beesley]

Kenny MacAskill MP has become the first SNP parliamentarian to defect to the Alba Party.

Probably the most likely of all the MPs though I still went 'wow' upon reading this. He was a key Salmond ally and member of his cabinet best known for the Megrahi release, and clearly took his side and the side of Joanna Cherry in regards to recent events. MacAskill also called for judicial reform in the wake of Salmond's trial. For those reasons alone he was not appointed to Blackford's frontbench team. The other MPs that were not are Angus MacNeil and Joanna Cherry. Neale Hanvey was but was removed for supporting a lawsuit against his colleague.

[beesley]

For what it's worth former SNP MP Corri Wilson, one of the worst MPs in recent history, has also joined Alba. Presumably she'll be on their South Scotland list.

[beesley]

There was also an interesting paper from (I think) 2016 that analyzed IndyRef1 voters and Brexit referendum voters, and found that maybe 30% of those who voted for "Independence" also voted for "Leave."

Example: Banff and Buchan, the only certain pro-Brexit Westminster constituency (there's doubt about CSER), is estimated voted to for independence.

I didn't quote the rest of your post but I agree with much of it. I also think that the EU would be very hesitant to allow Scotland in when it actually came to it. The state of their economy could certainly put them in the net beneficiary zone.

[beesley]

Where is the power to change the Scottish electoral system located? At Westminster or Holyrood? If it ends up with a "gaming of the system" via Alba, giving a pro-independence supermajority, there might be pressure to change the system to a better one. Obviously the best thing would be to ditch the constituencies, and just have open lists in the regions, but this is the UK, so it would most likely be changed into something worse I would assume.

That power lies with Westminster. Same goes for the Senedd - it was Labour who banned dual candidacy and the Tories who repealed that rule. Though changing the system without the consent of the Scottish government could almost certainly backfire.

There's nothing to stop a credible unionist alternative from doing the same thing as Alba, and the Panelbase poll had Alliance for Unity potentially winning a seat or two (don't place too much emphasis), so if they want to blame the system for their shortcomings they're foolish.

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot - does a lot of projections including some with a Scandinavian style proportional system, but all the usual caveats apply.

[beesley]

Where is the power to change the Scottish electoral system located? At Westminster or Holyrood? If it ends up with a "gaming of the system" via Alba, giving a pro-independence supermajority, there might be pressure to change the system to a better one. Obviously the best thing would be to ditch the constituencies, and just have open lists in the regions, but this is the UK, so it would most likely be changed into something worse I would assume.

That power lies with Westminster. Same goes for the Senedd - it was Labour who banned dual candidacy and the Tories who repealed that rule. Though changing the system without the consent of the Scottish government could almost certainly backfire.

]
This is totally wrong. The power for Scotland is with the Scottish parliament and Wales the Senedd since the Scotland Act 2016/ Wales Act 2017. The UK parliament only retains power over UK Westminster elections (and PCC elections in Wales).

My mistake. Apologies.