2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Coastal Elitist]

I don't know why I didn't realize this earlier but it's completely unnecessary to bacon strip to Bakersfield to get a majority Hispanic seat. This map is much more compact and fair than the current arrangement and it still creates two majority Hispanic seats.



CA-16: 64% Hispanic, 51% Hispanic CVAP
CA-21: 65% Hispanic, 51% Hispanic CVAP
CA-22: 38% Hispanic, 30% Hispanic CVAP
CA-23: 48% Hispanic, 36% Hispanic CVAP

Thoughts, anyone?

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese decent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

It's 65% Hispanic by total population how is that not a strong Latino district. I'm not reducing anything you just don't like it because it might elect the wrong party. This easily meets the requirement of the VRA and the commission.

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

It's 65% Hispanic by total population how is that not a strong Latino district. I'm not reducing anything you just don't like it because it might elect the wrong party. This easily meets the requirement of the VRA and the commission.

You're so right! The district being configured that way for 30 years, including a Court map and a Commission map, is simply an oversight!

Don't be a dumbass. The area's ethnicity has changed over time. There's no reason that you can't make compact Hispanic majority districts in the Central Valley. This isn't 1980 or 1990 when the state was less Hispanic. The only reason to be against compact district there is for partisan reasons.

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

David Valadao is also DOA, whether the district elects a Republican or a Democrat.

Lol he almost certainly isn't

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

It's 65% Hispanic by total population how is that not a strong Latino district. I'm not reducing anything you just don't like it because it might elect the wrong party. This easily meets the requirement of the VRA and the commission.

You're so right! The district being configured that way for 30 years, including a Court map and a Commission map, is simply an oversight!

Don't be a dumbass. The area's ethnicity has changed over time. There's no reason that you can't make compact Hispanic majority districts in the Central Valley. This isn't 1980 or 1990 when the state was less Hispanic. The only reason to be against that is for partisan reasons.

The current district is much more Hispanic than yours for a reason. And you want to call me names! Incredible.

Um no it's not much more. It's like a few points less that's like nothing and that's based on 2018 numbers.

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

David Valadao is also DOA, whether the district elects a Republican or a Democrat.

Lol he almost certainly isn't

Either a he loses to a Democrat in the runoff, or he fails to make it past the primary. Can you guess why I think he's DOA?

He's not being primaried lol. No one's going to care that he was against Trump or whatever. He won with Trump on the ballot why would he not win in a Biden midterm

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

David Valadao is also DOA, whether the district elects a Republican or a Democrat.

Lol he almost certainly isn't

Either a he loses to a Democrat in the runoff, or he fails to make it past the primary. Can you guess why I think he's DOA?

He's not being primaried lol. No one's going to care that he was against Trump or whatever. He won with Trump on the ballot why would he not win in a Biden midterm

The GOP base will abandon him like a used napkin.

I doubt it.

[Coastal Elitist]

Here is a 44-8 D somewhat Dem Gerrymander congressional map of California based on 2020 Prez data. On top of that, Dems also have such a huge geographic advantage in this state.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c0ae6298-6253-40c7-92d2-387d154db55e

It's very convenient that your Democratic gerrymander puts your hometown in a Republican seat instead of a Democratic one like it is now lol.

[Coastal Elitist]

Anyone knows what happens is hypothetically the commission can’t agree?

The court draws it

[Coastal Elitist]

You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

Draws out LaMalfa, McClintock, Obernolte, Garcia, Kim, Steel, and Issa, and draws together Nunes, Valadao, and McCarthy(or he's drawn out into 21)

Closest seat: CA-47, 43.66% D    54.37% R

Beautiful.
This map could single-handedly save the House for Dems in 2022.
Maddening that it won't get enacted out of a misguided obsession with unilateral disarming.

what unilateral disarming. Democrats fought tooth and nail against the redistricting commission they even tried to overturn it via another ballot proposition after it passed.