2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[Coastal Elitist]

Anyone think Republicans would be brazen enough to try this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b046fa7-ddd0-44e6-83d3-97a6073a9a5c

[Coastal Elitist]

With the way Cooper continues to behave it would be shocking if he isn't drawn out. It's incredibly easy to do with each seat being at least Trump+23-25. Also not sure what nonsense democrats are talking about regarding potential lawsuits. There are no VRA concerns and no fair district amendments to worry about.

[Coastal Elitist]

With the way Cooper continues to behave it would be shocking if he isn't drawn out. It's incredibly easy to do with each seat being at least Trump+23-25. Also not sure what nonsense democrats are talking about regarding potential lawsuits. There are no VRA concerns and no fair district amendments to worry about.

Could you fill me in on what you mean here?

Like extreme republican said above he's been very egotistical saying Nashville has only been successful because of him and because it's represented by a Democrat plus he's praised the Lincoln project

[Coastal Elitist]

Here's a much cleaner map of Tennesse that splits Nashville: https://davesredistricting.org/join/26814ee0-6d47-4106-b24d-1a081b7b8296

[Coastal Elitist]

Here's an updated version of my map and all the R districts are safe. Also, you do not need to crack Knoxville the trends there are overrated.






Here's a look at how the raw vote margin changed from 2016 to 2020

TN-1: Trump+156,895 to Trump+182,155
TN-2: Trump+97,938 to Trump+95,943
TN-3: Trump+69,630 to Trump+81,286
TN-4: Trump+108,766 to Trump+120,198
TN-5: Trump+69,350 to Trump+73,939
TN-6: Trump+72,963 to Trump+78,420
TN-7: Trump+75,391 to Trump+80,723
TN-8: Trump+129,088 to Trump+144,180
TN-9: Clinton+127,791 to Biden+148,080

So with the exception of TN-2 where the raw vote margin only dropped by 1,995 votes he actually increased his raw vote margin in every Republican-held district despite the percentage change dropping.

With that said if you want to go all out I would do Reagente's map but doing something like this should be super safe as well.

[Coastal Elitist]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-10 and TX-21 (Austin crack districts) each gave Romney around 60% but only barely went to Trump last year.

So just to repeat stop looking at the percentage change in the vote Trump won each district that takes in Nashville by more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. That's the trend to look at not how the percent changed. 2020 had a lot higher turnout than 2016 so these percentage changes are skewed and look worse than they are. If the best the dems can do is turnout more voters and lose by more than these should be safe.

[Coastal Elitist]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-10 and TX-21 (Austin crack districts) each gave Romney around 60% but only barely went to Trump last year.

So just to repeat stop looking at the percentage change in the vote Trump won each district that takes in Nashville by more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. That's the trend to look at not how the percent changed. 2020 had a lot higher turnout than 2016 so these percentage changes are skewed and look worse than they are. If the best the dems can do is turnout more voters and lose by more than these should be safe.

Without knowing how much higher turnout was in 2020 that's kinda a useless metric though.  If  turnout is brought high enough pretty much any raw margin will increase, unless the district is trending so fast it's bound to be gone anyway. 

Besides that doesn't even tell the whole picture, once turnout is down again in the next cycle, does the raw margin stay the same or does the percentage persist with the lowered margins?

What no it's not. You can easily calculate how much higher turnout was. How is the percentage change better a metric then? It's pretty obvious that Tennessee isn't trending like the other two examples you mention. Obviously, when turnout is lower it means the percentage margin will go up. I don't know why this is so hard for you to understand. Tennessee is not trending dem.

[Coastal Elitist]

This article gives a decent idea of what the preferred plan by the senate might look like. The plan is to do a two way split of Davidson which is three districts with Green taking in some of Nashville along with 1/3 of Williamson, Rose taking in some of Nashville and Cooper's seat taking in some of Nashville and the rest of Williamson.

https://onthehill.tnjournal.net/threes-a-crowd-senate-gop-would-have-green-desjarlais-cooper-districts-meet-in-nashville/

Based on those descriptions I think it will look something like this:





Even though TN-7 is only Trump+18 there are no bad trends and it's safe along with all the other ones. Trump actually increased his margin of victory in all the Nashville districts and the PVIs all moved to the right as well