Charles is sometimes competitive in federal elections, but I believe Ehrlich won big there in 2002. Anne Arundel will go for Ehrlich by at least 10%. However, if O'Malley can keep Ehrlich to 55% or so in Anne Arundel, he (O'Malley) has a great chance of winning. The same thing can be said for Howard and Baltimore County. If Ehrlich wins Howard by 5% or so and wins Baltimore County by 10% or so, he really doesnt have much of a chance.
Ehrlich won most of these counties by 20-30% in 2002, and still only managed to pull 52% statewide.
The votes are in PG, MoCo, and Baltimore City.
Thank you for that information. It really is interesting how two counties and a city can control the entire political outcome of a state. Why is Anne Arundel County so supportive of Ehrlich? I thought that as a suburban Baltimore county it might be more evenly split. Furthermore, is Frederick County considered reliably Republican or has it voted for Democrats in the past? I realize it's represented by Republican congressman Roscoe Bartlett. It just seems to me that more development is going on in Frederick, Brunswick, and Point of Rocks and that maybe that would make the area more competitive as well.
Anne Arundel is suburban, but with a conservative (if nominally Democratic) streak. Much of it is blue-collar suburbia like Erlich's native Arbutus, and voters there related to him more than to KKT's wealthy background. O'Malley seems to fit better; he probably won't carry it but should get better than KKT's pathetic 35%.
Frederick County is mostly Republican, although some of the more populated areas (such as the city of Frederick) often support Democrats. Much of the growth there comes from white family voters, including many who moved there from Montgomery County. They help keep Frederick Republican, while Montgomery, traditionally Democratic, has become even more so as it attracts minorities and nontraditional households (singles, seniors, childless couples, etc.)
Of the Southern Maryland counties, Calvert and St. Mary's usually favor Republicans atop the ticket but not always further down. Charles is more Democratic, with more African Americans and suburbanites. Charles gave Ehrlich 56% of the vote in 2002; it and Howard County were the only counties Ehrlich carried with less than 60%.
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