United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

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At risk of posting confirmation bias again - this feels a tad noteworthy:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1777979565241139327

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New Ipsos numbers - lowest Conservative vote share in their 45 years of tracking.

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With Oryx on this (but I was always of the view that May would be less risky than the autumn).

Would just add:

• The sooner they go, the less boat crossings (and therefore the less ammunition for Reform).
• Going before flights to Rwanda actually start means they get to avoid the inevitable admin issues with flights, arrivals, reprisals, protests, while still claiming to have delivered the policy.
• They might also get to run the election before Rayner's given the all-clear, which won't make *too* much difference, but will appeal to those who think the reporting of Dan Hodges leaves Labour with sleaze issues comparable to their own.

All that said - I still think they'll wait for the autumn, in the hope that the economy will be better, and the tax cuts have "bedded-in".

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If I was on manoeuvres to be PM, in an increasingly marginal seat -  this is exactly what I’d do. Drop a slightly dodgy poll that shows I’d survive against the odds - implying that I was still a safe bet, and had a sizeable personal vote that might shake up the election.

Getting your local allies to commission it, and dropping it literally the day before what’s supposed to be Sunak’s moment of maximum weakness is a bit on the nose, though.

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A trio of Scottish polls have been released, each showing an SNP -> Labour swing. Norstat and Savanta both record their first lead for Scottish Labour:

• Savanta: 4% Lab lead
• Norstat: 5% Lab lead
• YouGov: 1% Lab lead

All polling was conducted between the coalition break-up and Swinney assuming office as First Minister, so he may steady the ship and recover a lead. It does appear in line with the medium-term, though:


See here for full details, and links to cross tabs.

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I think that's a pretty salient comparison, and seems to be broadly upheld by the shift in polling since 2022. We've seen independence topline numbers stay pretty stagnant, and decouple from the declining SNP vote.

Further to that point, Holyrood polling has tended to show the SNP vote holding up better, supporting DL's suggestion that Labour might be receiving "borrowed" votes from SNP supporters.

See for instance, that while the Westminster elections of 2015/17/19 showed massive swings, the Holyrood elections of 2016 and 2021 showed barely a 1% swing between the major parties.

In the past few months, we have started to see the odd Lab lead in the PR list vote for Holyrood, and the first polls showing a narrow Lab lead in the constituency vote (the SNP's best metric) for the first time since 2014, were only released in the past week or two.

While there's a chance a competent Swinney government, and an incompetent Starmer government, could reverse/slow the trend, voters seem to be slowly shifting towards a "time for a change" mode in both parliaments.

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Throw it in the average, but man...
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1792556360913072303

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https://twitter.com/larisamlbrown/status/1793246283043389495


Per Politico's Eleni Courea, David Cameron has also had to fly back early to attend cabinet.

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If he's calling a July election, it does kinda need to happen today. There's parliamentary business to wrap up before an election, and you'd expect Mordaunt to announce the Whitsun recess is being cancelled (to deal with that stuff) at Business Questions tomorrow - which would need to happen *after* Sunak's announcement.

Some talk that the new borrowing numbers, and the BofE's recent decisions, have removed much of the headroom Hunt was going to burn on tax cuts. So between the lack of a pre-election giveaway budget, and the likelihood of a summer of record small boat crossings, maybe they've decided this is the least-worst moment to go?

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https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1793267586999701607?s=46&t=i-UD2LZovA...

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https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1793269179287564784

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https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/letters-to-political-party-leaders-and-parliamentary-candidates-about-upholding-standards-of-conduct-ahead-of-the-forthcoming-general-election

Letters to political party leaders and parliamentary candidates about upholding standards of conduct ahead of the forthcoming general election

The Chair has written to political party leaders and parliamentary candidates in the forthcoming general election about the importance of upholding standards of conduct during elections.

From:Committee on Standards in Public Life
Published 22 May 2024

What a day to publish this, if it *is* a coincidence.

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Who is the Peter Mandleson of the Tories?

Gove, surely?

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Have to say, it would be a class act for Sunak to call an election while students are scattered in marginals across the country, rather than concentrated in about 10 ultra-safe Labour seats and 3 SNP-Lab marginals.

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Lmao
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1793286414651572467
If they pass the threshold, I look forward to the annual Lascelles Principles discourse

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https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1793280795022401591
No notes.

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https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1793297957313273939

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I've been working on something for the Scottish part of the election, that may or may not see the light of day. Here's the state of candidate selection, as of the start of this week, north of the border:

Will be hopelessly out of date by the end of the week, but just thought it was interesting as a snapshot. Labour and SNP ready everywhere, while Tory and Lib Dem focused on getting people ready in their very limited target list, and well behind elsewhere. Alba and Reform well below their targets for candidate numbers, but Greens likely to hit a record, at current rate of recruitment.

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https://twitter.com/dp_williamson/status/1793309718796018123

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Podium in Downing Street, with no coat of arms.

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Off-the-charts meme potential for all the business with the podium right now.

Look, it wouldn't be a hastily called GE without social media lusting over "hot podium guy", who's the same guy every time.

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Okay this surprised me, I haven't been paying the closet attention recently and I assumed we were still looking at the end of the year?

Don’t beat yourself up about it, from the reactions in SW1 today, basically everyone else did too…

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I wonder if Seb Payne will manage to weasel himself into a safe seat now.

He’s reportedly been part of the scrum of candidates that descended on Stratford upon Avon after Zahawi’s retirement. 

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Reform holding an event tomorrow in which Nigel Farage's role in the campaign will be announced.

So either supporting from the sidelines (with the occasional rally), or announcing a run in Clacton?