UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Quick update on the state of play:

• Greens have confirmed (after some early morning wobbles that leaked) that they'll be voting against Yousaf.
• Labour have launched a separate VONC against *the government* which would, if successful, compel ministers to resign and vacate the office of First Minister (as compared to the more symbolic VONC against Yousaf that the Tories called).
• Greens have said their position on Labour's motion would depend on who's leading ScotGov next week.

• Yousaf has cancelled his trip to Glasgow, and the keynote independence speech he had scheduled. He's now headed to Dundee instead, reportedly to make an announcement on housing policy to try and grab back the narrative.
• Ash Regan has published some vague confidence and supply demands, and seems to be writing poetry on twitter while she chats to JK Rowling about how girls run the world (I'm not joking)

Edit: Yousaf's housing trip will be accompanied by the announcement of an £80 million investment in affordable housing. This would be laudable if he hadn't cut the housing budget by £196 million in his last budget - under the circumstances, it just feels desperate.

[Torrain]

Yousaf has been speaking in Dundee. He says he’ll speak to each party leader today to gauge support. Line is still that he’s going to fight and win the VONC - and that his impromptu housing event is “proof he’s getting on the with the job”, rather than an attempt to wrest back the narrative.

Oddly, he then launched into a monologue about how it was incumbent on opposition parties to “make minority government work”. Pretty brazen given he’s the one who triggered the political instability in the first place - and hardly endearing to the leaders who still hold his fate in their hands.

[Torrain]

Regan has announced she'll be voting against the VoNC in the government as a whole. Not a massive surprise, but makes a snap election less likely.

That tracks. Alba sources were briefing against it as soon as it was announced. If they can hit 3-5% in the polls, they could get enough list MSPs to survive. But losing Regan now, and then both their MPs in the autumn would probably be the end of them.

[Torrain]

Weekend a bit quieter, but a little movement:

• A group of SNP MPs (who've declined to be named) have pointed the finger at Stephen Flynn. He's getting the blame from some, but he seems to be coming out better than Yousaf - "Flynn has bounced the First Minister into this. It’s his party now.”
• Yousaf, speaking in Cupar, has refused to say whether he'd resign if the informal VONC is successful, and refused to rule out an election.
• Alba has convened an emergency weekend meeting of their National Executive Committee to rule whether to back Yousaf.

And, looking to the future:

• Forbes' weekly column in the National is a bromide about working with other parties in the spirit of 2007-11, and stressing her own 'success' working with the Greens while Finance Sec, stressing her willingness to work with them in the future. The Greens, worried she's on maneuveurs, have said they only worked with her out of respect for Nicola Sturgeon.
• Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth is also said to be positioning herself, per reporting in the Times, and New Statesman this weekend, which tallies with reporting about her reaching out to Sturgeon to consult on strategy earlier in the month. Raises the prospect of Kezia Dugdale moving into Bute House - not a sentence I thought I'd ever be typing!

[Torrain]

Poulter was a health minister under Cameron, and is still standing down at the election so he’s a more credible/damaging defector than Wakeford, if we’re drawing comparisons.

Quite a coup for Starmer, and Streeting - who seems to have taken credit. When even Tory MPs are attacking the state of the NHS, with May 2nd just around the corner, it’s just a dire look for the gov.

Sunak's on the pre-locals media round tomorrow, which does make the timing feel rather precise.

[Torrain]

Alba are demanding the SNP stand aside in multiple Holyrood seats if they are to support Yousaf as first minister.

Salmond knows how the SNP works, both culturally, and its constitution - it's not just a bad-faith offer, it's the political equivalent of throwing a stick of dynamite at Yousaf and yelling "catch". Even though Alba are on life support, and could be finished by this, he just can't resist.

He'll be on the BBC Sunday show tomorrow morning. Let's see if he's any more measured then. If he doubles down on this line, then he's essentially just telling Yousaf to resign and get it over with.

[Torrain]

Yousaf has already categorically rejected Salmond's "offer." So he can either make another overture tomorrow or  tell him to GTFO.

Aye - it’s what he had to do.

Salmond is now denying the electoral pact was offered, and is making rather woolier proposals about an independence convention and health/education policy as the red lines. He waffles a bit about the Alba NEC preparing for an election, but it sounds a bit like bluster.

There does seem to be a path here to get Yousaf through the vote, if Regan is willing to negotiate. Whether he can then make it through the following weeks and months seems less plausible.

[Torrain]

It's worth noting, that while VONCs can be survived with a 64-64 tie, the same principles of staus-quo-maintenance would prevent the presiding officer from providing an affirmative vote on any new legislation - meaning confidence and supply will still be absent. 

Budgets would be a particular issue, given the looming spectre of further cuts. The 2024-25 budget is going to be a pain in the neck for any SNP FM to pass, but an intractable nightmare for Yousaf if he somehow survives this week, the Westminster election, and six months of wrangling with the centre-right faction of his own party.

Other developments from today:

• Labour will continue with their VONC in the Government, even if Yousaf falls on his sword before the vote.
• Lib Dems join the other unionist parties in sending written replies to Yousaf rejecting talks and calling for his immediate resignation.
• Fergus Ewing has said he'll vote for Yousaf this week, but expects him to be gone by the end of the summer, and will withdraw support if insufficient progress is made on issues like the A96 dualling.
• Some of Alba's most strenous opponents sit at Westminster, and we've had some very pointed opposition to any sort of deal with Salmond from Glasgow South's Stewart McDonald, and Perthshire's Pete Wishart.
• Michelle Thomson has issued a very unconvincing denial that her close ally Kate Forbes is ringing MSPs to gauge support for a leadership challenge.

One of the real oddities of the day, has been Salmond doing a full media round, bragging about how Ash Regan is now "the most powerful MSP in Holyrood", but refusing to share any of the airtime with her. I know she's gaffe-prone, but it's crap look for Salmond *of all people* to not let the woman speak on her own behalf.

[Torrain]

Per the Times, Humza Yousaf will resign on Monday morning.

[Torrain]

SNP confirm Yousaf is giving a press conference in Bute House at noon.

Putative caretaker FM John Swinney is in London - despite the news breaking last night, and being invited to cabinet meetings over the past week to drum up support. Hiding from being drafted? Or meeting the Westminster group to gauge support?

If Yousaf resigns with immediate effect, he will have outlasted Henry McLeish, Scotland's shortest serving FM by only 6 days, and survived for a shorter period than 8/10 Scottish Labour leaders... which is quite some feat.

Edit: Swinney's not ruling out running, and sounds like Kate Forbes may not go for it - could be a coronation...

[Torrain]

The Scottish Tories announcing they’d work with Kate Forbes is some excellent pot-stirring.

While Labour would love the chance to run against her, I’m sure there are a few Aberdeenshire Tories nervous about what she’d do to their majorities. Another SNP heavyweight they’re cheerfully pushing under the bus.

[Torrain]

Yousaf has resigned as SNP leader. Will remain a backbencher in parliament.

His intention is to stay on until a successor is elected - so confidence votes may still go ahead.

[Torrain]

So if we're seeing an internal shift from the independence yes-no paradigm to a more "who manages Scotland better?"

In some ways, yes. In polling, the independence numbers have detached from SNP political support, with Yes now running way ahead of the party. Independence remains an important issue for some voters, but most polls no longer have it as among the top three issues with the public at large.

how likely is it Labour takes the lead again?

There's a statistical tie in most Scottish polls for Westminster, but because the Labour vote is distributed more effectively, it's expected this will put Labour slightly ahead in seat totals, if polling is borne out.
Holyrood polling is a different beast - SNP remain slightly ahead on both constituency and list vote, but way down on 2021. That polling suggests a close race between the unionist and nationalist blocs - with the expectation being that the largest bloc will band together to push their FM candidate (Labour vs SNP) to lead an unstable minority government.

How are the SNP years in power perceived in Scotland?

I'm pretty downbeat, particularly about the state of education, health and infrastructure. Afleitch will be able to make a more positive case, although he, like me, has ulterior motives. Many people's opinion will depend on how they feel about independence - which drives so much of the agenda and divisions in parliament.

[Torrain]

One to keep an eye on - Scottish Greens activists had a really stormy set of party meetings with their leaders over the past week.

There were already questions over the long-term prospects of co-leaders Harvie and Slater, which has been reignited. Also, some very aggressive briefing against Ross Greer, who's control of internal party mechanisms has led to some vaguely Stalinist imagery included in briefings to the Herald. His description of John Swinney as his "work dad" also triggered an entirely distinct rant about his cosiness with the SNP.

I only bring it up, because Maggie Chapman (the voice of the left within the Greens) refused to state she had confidence in either co-leader in comments to the media today, which is about as on-maneuveurs as you can get in a party like the Greens.

And because, if Slater and Harvie were figures of some mirth, the party would become *even more* oddball if they were replaced with the duo of Chapman and Greer, the only other notables among the current parliamentary group.

[Torrain]

Yeah - odd move, and potentially rather cynical.

Given she’s one of the party’s familiar faces, and has stepped aside to cede the list seat to the party’s mayoral candidate (a virtual unknown who dropped the Greens into fourth place behind the Lib Dems for the first time in 16 years), she’s opened herself up to the charge that she only stood to secure enough votes for a third list seat, which she never intended to fill.

Given she’s surrendered her council seat, her assembly seat, and stated she wants to get out of London politics, it’s going to be a lean few years for her if she loses Brighton.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1788164600350872034
What on earth?

[Torrain]

Has Labour already selected a candidate for Dover?

Per Labour briefing, she’s standing down.

Like Dan Poulter, this is just about sticking two fingers up at Sunak.

[Torrain]

Slightly different note, but John Swinney was sworn in (we do that) as Scotland’s 7th First Minister yesterday. He retreated to Bute House, and spent four hours reshuffling his cabinet - only to announce that he was giving Kate Forbes the Economy and Deputy First Minister brief, and keeping the rest of the cabinet exactly the same.

It feels notable that she was given Economy, and Finance was left with Shona Robison - means Robison is in charge of the high-stakes budget at the end of the year, which will likely depend on Green votes.

Going to be an interesting moment that one - first budget since the SNP-Green rift opened up (they spent a lot of yesterday releasing terse statements about the SNP shifting to the right, as though that wasn’t the most likely outcome after the Greens ensured Yousaf was ousted), first minority government budget since 2020, and reported to be full of further spending cuts.

All to be held in the aftermath of the Westminster election, when the psychology of the different parties will have shifted significantly, whatever the outcome.

[Torrain]

Apologies for more Holyrood posting. But it’s continued to be an interesting week.

In order for MSPs to join government as ministers, they need to be voted in by the chamber- which meant we had a vote yesterday on making Forbes Deputy FM. SNP and Alba voted in favour, with Tories, Labour and Greens opposed. Lib Dem abstention made the difference.

Which has been one of the more interesting subplots this week. Willie Rennie has been fairly warm to Swinney this week, and after he scrapped the role of Minister for Independence (a longtime bugbear of Rennie’s), he said Forbes “deserved a chance to govern”.

Time will tell. In the past, the Lib Dems have backed down from Holyrood collaboration with the SNP under pressure from unionist members. But there is a political kinship there (see their formal coalition on Aberdeen City Council) - and they do seem to have found a way to leverage their (record low) 4 MSPs, and remind the Greens that not every vote revolves around them.

Also - if this week’s FMQs is anything to go by, Swinney may need some coaching to be ready to front an election campaign.

[Torrain]

Don’t do that to me on a Sunday night - not when we’ll have to wait until 11.55 on Wednesday to find out when it’s true or not…

Spoiler alert: defection speculation - I’m sorry in advance

Show

If they’re actually doing this again, I hope Starmer is at least continuing his previous strategy, where he’s targeting MPs who tell a specific story with their defection (Wakeford as a symbol of the Red Wall, Poulter as avatar of the NHS, Elphicke as immigration and housing enthusiast).

Trying to think who’d fit that mould, and no longer sits in government. Alok Sharma making a big pitch on Sunak’s Net-Zero u-turns would be somewhat plausible. Best get would be someone from the MOD, to torpedo (heh) Tory credibility on defence. A James Heappey, for instance, would be a huge get.

Someone untouchable and respected, like Tracey Crouch (who’s retiring anyway) would be a fair shout too. If he wants someone from education, he’d have to take a risk on someone like Nick Gibb, who’s lauded but not entirely uncontroversial.

I mean, who else is there - Caroline Nokes? Moderate Johnson opponents like Jesse Norman or Will Quince? Rehman Chishti, but for real this time? Beyond that, you get into bland technocrats like Karen Bradley, and a small army of Cameron-era ministers who’ve faded into anonymity.

Javid trying to take down *another* Tory PM would be wild - but I’m not sure even Starmer is ready for a Tory chancellor on his backbenches.

Spoiler alert: Additional speculation

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Elliot Colburn and Matt Warman, both fairly moderate by modern standards, rebelled to support Jess Phillip's motion on barring arrested Tory MPs from the Commons, along with Nokes. So did Theresa May, but even I'm not *that* gullible. If I had a Pepe Slyvia style red-string conspiracy board, I'd add their names to the list.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1790477309729751510
It'll probably be some awkward celebrity endorsement, but given its a Essex-based event, on the other side of PMQs, I'd imagine local MPs like Will Quince and John Baron will wake up tomorrow to about ten missed calls from the chief whip.

[Torrain]

Everything’s fine north of the border guys, promise. 
https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1790661936528429361

[Torrain]

I think most of the May stuff started because she rebelled on that Labour amendment barring MPs arrested for sexual assault from the Commons.

Several people presented the list of the 8 Tory rebels as the definitive shortlist, and she was the only household name on it (even though it also contains 2 serial rebels and 2 sitting ministers).

[Torrain]

Never really in doubt, but “our former party leader isn’t defecting” is up there with “of course the PM isn’t resigning” as signals of intra-party turmoil.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1791461620578660448
Gething’s premiership continues to be an odd mirror of Yousaf’s.

Also means Hannah Blythyn, who Gething fired for ‘leaking’, might end up with a deciding vote, if Plaid and the solitary Lib Dem aren’t willing to bail him out. Guess he’s found himself his very own Ash Regan!