UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Truss has just finished up.

She had a whole section about how she's willing to make the hard choices, which rings just a tad hollow in the wake of the u-turns of the past 72 hours.

[Torrain]

One other wee snag. She implicated Labour as part of the anti-growth coalition. But then in the next paragraph, she ended a section with the device “we need growth, growth, growth”.

Which Starmer used, verbatim, in a Liverpool speech back in July:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-62292281

[Torrain]

Redfield and Wilton have published fresh polling this evening. Their general election tracker largely remains where it was last time they polled, with Labour on 52%, Tories on 24%, Lib Dems on 10%, SNP down by 1 point to 4%, and ReformUK stuck on 3%:

Amongst the general public, Truss’ approval rating falls to 15%, the lowest R&W have ever recorded for an incumbent PM. 49% disapprove of the PM’s performance.

Amongst 2019 Conservative voters, Truss records a 25% approval rating. Notably, Johnson never received a net negative approval rating from this group (when polled by R&W), while Truss has fallen to a net -24%.

The full release can be found here: https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-52/

[Torrain]

How is Truss acting more ideologically, and less responsibly than Rees-Mogg? Refusing to approve a simple, comparatively cheap campaign to educate the public about saving energy, in the midst of a cost of living crisis, with looming gas shortages, just feels like ethical and political malpractice.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1578135758040403971

[Torrain]

How is Truss acting more ideologically, and less responsibly than Rees-Mogg? Refusing to approve a simple, comparatively cheap campaign to educate the public about saving energy, in the midst of a cost of living crisis, with looming gas shortages, just feels like ethical and political malpractice.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1578135758040403971

...what is she ideologically opposed to, PSAs?

The way it’s being described, Truss has engaged fully with the GOP-style “It’s not the governments job to tell you what to do” talking point, and is refusing to fund the campaign on that basis. The government source quoted in most articles about it explicitly say she thinks the campaign is too “interventionist”.

Johnson was said to have similar laissez faire instincts (there were apparently some fierce discussions about whether to lock-down over COVID, especially the first time), but could be won over if the argument was made well enough.

[Torrain]

I feel like this is becoming less newsworthy, now that it seems to be the default position (for this moment of crisis, at least), but new polling from PeoplePolling (who were, ironically, paid to conduct the study by GBNews), shows a 32% lead for Labour.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PeoplePolling/status/1578338358732140545
The fact they’re still bleeding support is really quite something.

Things got bad for them under Johnson, but they had a solid floor of 30% - in line with their electoral results in the late 1990s. Breaching 30% to reach 25%, let alone 20% in the polls is quite spectacular. It’s the percentage of the vote they typically get in Holyrood elections, or in the averaged vote across the Scottish constituencies in a Westminster election.

I’m starting to wonder how long the Conservatives can remain this unpopular before the backbenchers run out of patience and do something radical.

[Torrain]

Conor Burns, who is (was?) a minister in the Dept. of International Trade has had the whip suspended over allegations of “inappropriate behaviour” at social events at party conference.

This will surprise some less than others - Burns was accused of inappropriate activity with staffers in the infamous dossier that also implicated MPs like Chris Pincher, and started a long-running salacious rumour about the PM and one of her key ministers.

Edit: Burns now sacked as Trade Minister, as expected.

[Torrain]

Maybe he's going to claim that he was ambushed by [REDACTED ON LEGAL ADVICE].

Oh yeah - Burns was the “ambushed by a cake” guy - there’s been so much chaos since then that I’d completely forgotten about that.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1578456156778872832
How will this go down in the Red Wa..aahahahahahahahahaha oh my God how is any of this real?

At this point, it’s almost like the cabinet are competing to see whose policy gets MPs like Johnny Mercer to resign the Conservative whip first…

[Torrain]

And, on cue, here’s Mercer:

I am unsure of this Government's determination to row back on all the advances we have made for looking after our veterans and those who serve. Cost of rail travel on Remembrance Day 'too great'?

Tell that to Frankie from my unit. He's currently fighting COVID and multiple infections as one of our most disabled war veterans from Afghan. Last night those at his bedside asked me for a late night voice message they could play him to keep him fighting...

Tell him the cost of a few rail fares is too high for those who sacrifice - still 14 years on. Without them there wouldn't be a f**king railway, a Nation or a Remembrance Day for that matter.

The original is linked here, but I’ve transcribed it to bleep the profanity for Atlas: https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1578459660280963072

[Torrain]

And, on cue, here’s Mercer:

I am unsure of this Government's determination to row back on all the advances we have made for looking after our veterans and those who serve. Cost of rail travel on Remembrance Day 'too great'?

Tell that to Frankie from my unit. He's currently fighting COVID and multiple infections as one of our most disabled war veterans from Afghan. Last night those at his bedside asked me for a late night voice message they could play him to keep him fighting...

Tell him the cost of a few rail fares is too high for those who sacrifice - still 14 years on. Without them there wouldn't be a f**king railway, a Nation or a Remembrance Day for that matter.

The original is linked here, but I’ve transcribed it to bleep the profanity for Atlas: https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1578459660280963072

The use of vulgarity in an official communication from a former Cabinet attendee strikes me as, uh, unusual (but called for!).

Have to agree, if ever there was a time/place for that kind of commentary, it’s here and now.

In terms of it being unusual, Mercer has always been a colourful figure, and this kind of approach/language is sort of his brand. See this interview:
https://www.politico.eu/podcast/cold-water-swimming-with-johnny-mercer-mp/amp/

It’s far from the most brash tweet sent by a Tory MP though - see 2016-era Ben Wallace vowing to castrate Michael Gove, and tagging a Sky News journalist.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bwallacemp/status/748856442132819969

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/OfficialMelB/status/1578487276707143682
But they took me off the morphine well over a month ago, what's happening?

Man. I kinda wanted to joke about how a member of the Spice Girls getting dirt on a Tory MP and forcing a resignation or pivotal by-election feels more like the ending to a crap Channel 4 drama than real life. It’s just new levels of bizarre.

But I think it’s worth mentioning, in all seriousness, that Mel Brown was at the conference to give a speech about tackling domestic abuse (something she experienced herself), and imploring an end to inaction. If, during that endeavour, she was accosted and leered at/joked crassly at/etc by Burns, then it puts an even more ugly spin on this whole affair.

[Torrain]

Johnson has appointed around eight sitting MPs to the House of Lords. Understandably, the Truss government is having a bit of a panic about this. If Truss were to lose the resulting by-elections, she’d lose a third of her majority, and the government could be defeated with only around 25 rebel MPs.

As a result, Truss is trying to get the King (who signs off the creation of any new Lords) to delay the appointments - which is broadly understood to be unconstitutional, as the 8 would be both sitting MPs and appointed Lords-to-be at the same time, which is forbidden by the rules of both chambers.

The last thing the Palace wants is to be dragged into this fiasco of a government, so I guess Truss will have to either relent, or somehow force the withdrawal of the nominations. Deferring them just creates the potential for lawsuits and more infighting.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f114c4ca-4671-11ed-8885-043c27446b97?shareToken=e746d6bdd7e3c919ae3d181fb856e393

[Torrain]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

[Torrain]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

I wonder if this was intentional by Boris...

Wasn't he widely thought to be a Truss supporter, even if he never went public on his successor?

Though even then its quite possibly overridden by his "apres moi, le deluge" mentality.

Occam's razor would suggest it's just Boris wanting to reward his mates - an argument I was initially sympathetic too. But the situation he's created is such a specific middle-finger to his successor (fight 8 uphill by-elections at once, or trigger a small constitutional crisis) that I'm having second thoughts.

To my reckoning, this would be the most by-elections on one day since the mass resignation of Unionist MPs in Nothern Ireland in protest of the Anglo-Irish agreement in 1986.

[Torrain]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

I wonder if this was intentional by Boris...

Wasn't he widely thought to be a Truss supporter, even if he never went public on his successor?

Though even then its quite possibly overridden by his "apres moi, le deluge" mentality.

Occam's razor would suggest it's just Boris wanting to reward his mates - an argument I was initially sympathetic too. But the situation he's created is such a specific middle-finger to his successor (fight 8 uphill by-elections at once, or trigger a small constitutional crisis) that I'm having second thoughts.

To my reckoning, this would be the most by-elections on one day since the mass resignation of Unionist MPs in Nothern Ireland in protest of the Anglo-Irish agreement in 1986.

Is there an exact number days they have to schedule an election? I know in the US the Governor usually has a bit of leeway. Otherwise I'd assume they'd try to space them out.

By convention, when MPs resign around the same time, the Commons sets the same date for the resulting by-elections (see the Wakefield and Tiverton by-elections held on the same night this same summer, even though their MPs left the Commons on different days). Holding 2-3 by-elections at once is pretty common, and as many as six by-elections on the mainland (excluding the 16 by-elections held at once in NI in 1983) have been held on one day since WW2.

If you space the by-elections out, the government is at risk of prolonged political embarassment, leading the news day after day, as they slowly lose seats. The Major government of the mid-90s had this problem. The unfolding chaos of one MP resigning after another, slowly eroding the Government's political authority (and parliamentary majority) contributed to the sense of terminal decline.

Check out this "progression of government majority" table here, for a visual example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MPs_elected_in_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

TLDR; if Truss does lose these 8 MPs to the House of Lords, the party will probably want the short sharp shock of all 8 results, rather than a slow erosion of their electoral credibility. This is the Truss government though, so rule nothing out.

[Torrain]

You couldn’t make it up.
https://mobile.twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1578796938761076742

[Torrain]

The Times (Shipman) reporting that Graham Brady isn't inclined to allow a 1922 rule change permitting a VoNC in Truss' first 12 months unless the rebels number half of the parliamentary party, a figure currently equating to 178 MPs.

Truly astonishing. Mordaunt on manoeuvres, Boris playing a poundshop Francis Urquhart, Shapps volunteering to be caretaker PM, Gove trying to get Johnson and Sunak to unite against Truss.

Even Kwasi’s lost the faith:

Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, told a prominent Tory on Monday night, in the hearing of another Conservative, that Truss’s chances of survival are “only 40-60”. It is understood that he shared the same assessment with Shapps last week. The chancellor denies the remarks

And Parliament hasn’t even been reconvened yet - what the heck is it going to be like once Truss is trying to get her economic package  through the Commons, and burning through what remains of her political capital?

[Torrain]

I saw another article about the Conor Burns situation and it seems a bit murky: he touched a man’s thigh and is “strongly of the impression” that it was consensual, but someone else told him to stop and that it was inappropriate. Do we have any knowledge of why or what the other man’s reaction is?

We don’t have any information yet - but Burns appears to have a history of ‘being handsy’, to quote one article. Several eyewitnesses appear to have reported the incident, or intervened, which doesn’t bode well. The PM learned about the incident on Tuesday, and we didn’t get a decision until a few days later, so they don’t appear to have acted overly rashly either.

There is a chance though, that Truss has jumped the gun. Firing Burns makes a nice contrast with Johnson’s inaction over Chris Pincher - and the optics may have won out over slim evidence. Burns also spent the conference endorsing Kemi Badenoch as “the future of the party”, and making veiled jabs at Truss’ self-promotion on social media, so he certainly didn’t have much goodwill left by the time the allegation was made.

[Torrain]

The Times reports that Ben Wallace is threatening to resign unless a pledge to increase defence spending to 3% of GDP is kept - requiring Truss to find another £20 billion in cuts elsewhere.

She’s also rowing back on plans to prevent benefits rise with inflation - so short of slashing foreign aid (which is infeasible, given that Tory MP Andrew Mitchell was able to force the far stronger Johnson government to increase aid via a backbench rebellion last year), I have no idea where the money for the cuts is going to come from.

Link: https://archive.ph/GyQ3j

[Torrain]

Kwarteng has announced that he's fast-tracking the medium-term fiscal statement, and accompanying OBR forecast:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1579398018448510976

Positively received by Mel Stride (Conservative), Chair of the Treasury Select Committee, who's been highly critical of Kwarteng in recent weeks:
https://twitter.com/MelJStride/status/1579396328349585408

[Torrain]

Somehow, Labour’s lead is still rising in the weekly trackers. At risk of writing the same post twice, Truss can only post numbers (and trends!) like this for so long before her MPs patience runs out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1579502016027508738

[Torrain]

Somehow, Labour’s lead is still rising in the weekly trackers. At risk of writing the same post twice, Truss can only post numbers (and trends!) like this for so long before her MPs patience runs out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1579502016027508738

And here are the polling results from 1997 by comparison:

Aye - the comparisons basically write themselves at the minute. One factor that’s worth noting is that Labour built a similar 30 point lead to the one they enjoy right now after Black Wednesday in 1993 - but that lead was built in a month, while Starmer’s Labour hit that lead in a week after the mini-budget. So things are more volatile - but Truss has dug herself such a hole that it’s hard to see that volatility hurting Labour all that much for the remainder of the year.

[Torrain]

The Tories may die, but that's a sacrifice that Liz Truss is willing to make:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1579586149999181824

According to Opinium’s pollsters, Tories were already struggling to hold onto rent-paying voters before Truss came into office. This will only accentuate that problem for them.

It also reopens the “Truss ignores a winning manifesto to pursue her own unpopular agenda” debate. Tory MPs are already jumping on this: “This would be another betrayal of our 2019 voters, and the PM has no mandate for it. The parliamentary party will not wear it. She is on borrowed time.”

[Torrain]

Can we actually get a NUT map to look at?

Maps:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575929404366106624
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd1jJFjXkAA3vLH?format=jpg&name=medium

Tools:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/10/britainpredicts