UK General Discussion: Rishecession

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https://twitter.com/kwasikwarteng/status/1576133060411523072?s=21&t=l3T7MosOQ6_bPxKe0jUh8A

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It's the Black History Month banner that really elevates this...

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The Times has a report on a champagne dinner that Kwarteng held with hedge-fund managers, right after the announcement of the mini-budget. Even if this isn't unethical and a tad dubious (and I feel like pre-empting policy with these guys is skirting dangerously close to a couple of lines), it's political malfeasance. I mean, this is an entire party political broadcast waiting to be written.

Kwasi Kwarteng attended a private champagne reception hours after delivering his mini-budget where hedge fund managers who would gain from a crash in the pound egged him on to commit to his plans.

The disclosure raises questions about Kwarteng’s political judgment. It will also raise concern that the event informed his decision to announce plans for even bigger tax cuts despite the market’s negative reaction to his initial plans.

After the reception on Friday, at least two prominent hedge fund bosses told City associates that Kwarteng was “a useful idiot”. A senior Tory who advises business leaders said the phrase was in widespread circulation.

Law is worth about £750 million and has donated £3.6 million to the Tories since 2004. He has acknowledged taking short positions on the pound over recent years, meaning he has profited from the currency’s decline in value.

Two sources say Kwarteng described the Friday as a “great day for freedom”. A third said: “He was high on adrenaline. His big thing was: ‘Look, we’re not going to do stuff incrementally. We really believe in this stuff and that’s what we’re going to do.’ ”

Kwarteng is also said to have warned those present of austerity-style budget cuts to come. A source said: “He wanted to give an unadulterated message of ‘growth, growth, growth’, and that’s why he didn’t talk about savings, because otherwise the [news] agenda would have been all about savings — ‘where will you cut? What will you cut? Blah blah blah’ — they’re fully aware they have to make savings.”

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It's like they want to replicate Thursday's YouGov poll at the next GE:

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1576262633921351680

Ah you just beat me to it... Absolutely barmy story. Kwarteng swigging champagne with stockbrokers while the pound crashed.

It's the sort of thing I used to hear student activists jokingly say about the Tories back in my undergrad days in Glasgow - not a news story from the Times, which is typically quite friendly to the Conservatives.

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Semi-serious question - can the Tories genuinely recover from such a bad loss? Especially given it appears their support for anyone under the age of 50 at this point has to be close to non-existant?

In 1997 the Tories won only 30% of the vote, and 165 seats (to Labour’s 418). They spent 13 years in the wilderness, but they made their way back to power. It’s very hard to actually kill one of the big three parties (see the Lib Dems, who still have 14 MPs and 2,500 local councillors - around 13% of all UK council seats).

The Conservatives also have deep roots as a party of local government. They run dozens of councils, retain the most councillors of any party, and form the Primary Opposition in the devolved legislatures of both Scotland and Wales. Short of widespread defections, that foothold in local government provides the party with a legion of potential candidates, and a deep network of canvasser, fundraisers and general volunteers.

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Truss is being interviewed by Laura Kuenssberg. Notably:

• Truss has doubled down on the 45% tax rate abolition, the part of the mini-budget most likely to face rebellion in the Commons.
• Admits she had issues rolling out the tax cuts, but refuses to take any responsibility for the impact of the tax cut announcement on mortgages and the pound.
• Refuses to publish the OBR draft.
• Says that the 45% rate was only drafted by Kwarteng - they didn’t discuss the policy with the full cabinet. Her phrasing “it was the chancellor’s decision” is the first time I’ve seen Truss look like she’s throwing Kwarteng under the bus.
• When presented with a question about a constituent with soaring mortgage payments, Truss blames the BofE raising interest rates, and refused again to admit any culpability.
• Kuenssberg basically accused Truss of acting without a mandate, and Truss shrugged and said that 2019 voters wanted economic growth, so she could basically do what she wanted.

Kuenssberg then pivoted to a panel discussion about Truss’s comments. Michael Gove went first, and said he couldn’t support the current financial package in the Commons. Just a bit of a car crash.

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Odd behaviour amongst MPs this morning. The party chairman, Jake Berry, has given an interview on Sky News confirming that Tory MPs who sought to change or vote down the economic package would have the whip withdrawn.

This was met with immediate criticism by former chief whip Julian Smith, and a short time later Mel Stride and Michael Gove made similar comments - all suggesting they can’t support the full package (with the sticking point typically coming back to abolition of the 45% tax band).

By my reckoning, we’re up to 7 Tory MPs who’ve indicated they’ll vote no on the bill as it stands (James Cartlidge, Steve Double, Sir Charles Walker, Julian Smith, Simon Hoare, Michael Gove, Mel Stride). That’s only 1/5 of the number of rebels you’d need - but as is always the case with Tory rebellions, the number of private rebels is typically equal-larger than the number of public dissenters.

Might well all come to nothing - these things often flame out. However, if I were Truss, I’d be a little wary of a group comprised of former chief whips, retiring or marginal-seat MPs with nothing to lose, and Michael Gove looking for a last hurrah. Especially if the party faithful spend the next four days drinking through the evenings at conference, while those opposed to Truss boycott the event and spend the week scheming and ringing up nervous marginal-seat MPs.

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Worth noting, Gove was just laying the groundwork this morning - he has a full interview with the Telegraph’s Chris Hope at a fringe event this afternoon, and has been doubling-down:

”Liz has a mandate on the basis of the case that she made… what was not discussed during the leadership election was the prospect of income tax cuts and in particular income tax cuts for the very wealthiest”

He’s been backed up by Rachel Wolf (co-author of the 2019 manifesto) who put out a similar line in the past hour. She’s talking about the 2019 mandate, rather than Truss’s personal mandate from the party membership, but the concerns seem to be similar.

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It's like they want to replicate Thursday's YouGov poll at the next GE:

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1576262633921351680

Ah you just beat me to it... Absolutely barmy story. Kwarteng swigging champagne with stockbrokers while the pound crashed.

And talking like the crassest variety of American "construction company founder or semiretired software engineer who had a windful IPO in the nineties, ran directly for the Senate or a governorship fifteen years later, and won" while he does it. "A great day for freedom"? Isn't this guy supposed to be some kind of Oxbridge historian?

While you’d see it on the fringes, that kind of GOP-adjacent rhetoric was pretty rare until recently. Farage and Johnson used a lot during the referendum, which Johnson continued in his premiership. But that was always about Brexit-related issues of ‘national sovereignty’. Members of the cabinet using this sort of language for economics and taxation seems very new.

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Grant Shapps has come out against the 45% tax rate abolition in a BBC interview. States he’s pretty sure it won’t have the votes to pass the Commons, and that it’s an inappropriate policy under the current circumstances.

Quite noteworthy, given that Shapps built his reputation on being a good footsoldier for the party, and defended Johnson’s government to the hilt on the Sunday shows most weeks.

The former transport secretary warned Ms Truss not to have a "tin ear" to voters' concerns about rising living costs and to do a U-turn as soon as possible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63110541.amp

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There's now uncertainty over when (or if) a vote will now be held on abolishing the 45% tax rate. The Telegraph is reporting that the vote will be pushed back until after the November statement from Kwarteng - but I think we'll probably get a better idea about the latest development from the Chancellor's media round tomorrow.  

As of this evening we have a minimum of 14 declared rebels - around 40% of the required MPs to defeat the bill.

• Robert Largan
• James Cartlidge
• Steve Double
• Sir Charles Walker
• Julian Smith
• Simon Hoare
• Michael Gove
• Mel Stride
• Damian Green
• Richard Graham
• Steve Brine
• Danny Kruger
• Maria Caulfield
• Grant Shapps

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The finger-pointing has commenced.

Penny Mordaunt at a late night conference event: “Our policy is great but our comms is sh*t”.

Pippa Crerar: Tory insiders claim that it was, in fact,  Treasury chief sec Chris Philp who had the idea to cut the 45p tax rate, presenting Truss and Kwarteng with a paper on it during leadership campaign.

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From Radio 4 this morning:

Nick Robinson: “Chancellor, you say you’ve listened, you didn’t listen over the past two weeks!”
Kwarteng: “Well actually it was nine days…”

It didn’t get any better after that either. He couldn’t provide answers on why the OBR was sidelined, or why he fired Tom Scholar.

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lol lmao lol

I’m pretty sure that’s a direct quote from Labour HQ this morning.

[Torrain]

I’d like to update my submission for worst-aged news article, with this piece from the Telegraph that was submitted last night:

[Torrain]

The finger-pointing has commenced.

Penny Mordaunt at a late night conference event: “Our policy is great but our comms is sh*t”.

Pippa Crerar: Tory insiders claim that it was, in fact,  Treasury chief sec Chris Philp who had the idea to cut the 45p tax rate, presenting Truss and Kwarteng with a paper on it during leadership campaign.

It has been claimed by some who were there that Penny Dreadful didn't actually mean that literally. In other words, a not too subtle dig at the policies as well.....

It’s hard to tell from the clip - she’s hamming it up enough that it could go either way. Not a great look though. I’m sure it’s not the most damaging thing to come out of a fringe event, but it’s an impressive bit of backbiting whether she’s being sarcastic or genuine.

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Nadine Dorries casually endorsing a general election to get a mandate for Trussonomics. Wouldn’t be noteworthy in most circumstances, but after Gove’s comments yesterday, things could get a little dicey. Any more of this, and the media will probably start printing report about how “former cabinet ministers agree Truss needs mandate”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1576894518703423489

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And another:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1576962260773539841?t=bixLls_V2o...

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Now that the 45% tax rate abolition is dead, the political focus seems to be shifting to benefits. Based on public statements by the Chancellor and Housing/Levelling Up Secretary Simon Clark, Government plans to fund some of the new tax cuts by cutting or freezing benefits.

That would require fresh legislation to be introduced and passed through the Commons well before the end of the financial year in April. I just don’t see how that’s politically feasible in this environment, between the cost of energy, and the sudden public affection for the Labour Party.

The chair of the One Nation Conservative group, Damien Green, came out against it yesterday, and Penny Mordaunt has indicated this morning that she opposes any tinkering with next years benefit numbers - in a Times Radio interview that came right after Truss defended to the policy on LBC. I find it hard to see how Truss isn't forced into a u-turn over this too, if the Cabinet is publicly AWOL already. She's currently very supportive of the move, but, well, look at yesterday...

“I can’t vote to cut benefits during a cost of living crisis” is a simple message, and is probably quite appealing to a lot of red-wall MPs under the current conditions.

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Even if you wanted to quibble about whether Chief Sec to the Treasury counts for some reason, Valerie Amos was made International Development Secretary in 2003.

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Kwarteng has pointed to the death of the Queen as the reason for why his budget was so bad. They're actively trying to implode aren't they?

That’s such a simple miscalculation that it could be a GCSE maths question:
If a man with a 7% approval rating blames the death of a woman with a 78% approval rating for his own mistakes, how many points will he lose in the polls?

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https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

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https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1577341771004231687
It's wholly unclear whether he has the votes to back this threat up. But the fact that he can say that on the day before Truss gives her conference speech, where she was supposed to reaunch her premiership, and it's not even the worst news-story of the day (see the R&W poll, and the u-turn on the date of the medium-term economic statement), gives you a sense of just how far this week has gone down the rabbit hole.

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https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

It’s not good for the incumbents, put it that way…

I don’t have a graphic, but on a universal swing, Labour take all 40 red-wall seats, with majorities between 17-47% (!), according to the chap who runs the tool.

While some of the red-wall MPs are true believers (Lee Anderson, Jonathan Gullis, Brendan Clarke-Smith), I wonder whether we might see that group a little more ideologically flexible in the coming months. Trussonomics will end some/most/all of their careers if things don’t change quickly, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they throw the odd spanner into the works…

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Truss' speech has been interrupted by anti-fracking Greenpeace protestors.

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1577604024664203266

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This is a petty point. But Truss is making a big deal about how she was the first PM to go to a comprehensive school, and made it into big applause line.

As someone who grew up very near Gordon Brown, I can assure you that his alma mater, Kirkcaldy High School, is a mid-level performing state school, and definitely a comprehensive, not a grammar school, as there are none up here.

Edit: it’s not as simple as that - see below.