UK Local Elections 2022

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I'm in Yorkshire at the minute, but am trying to stay up-to-date with the Scottish council elections, so will post anything significant that I come across there.

Hard to see the SNP having too bad year at the moment, and they could pick up outright majorities in regions like Glasgow and Fife, where they overtook Labour to become the plurality last time. However, given that the Tories are bracing for a bad night, a lot could come down to unionist swing voters. If they stay home or scatter, the SNP will be cracking open the champagne, but if they take a gamble on Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer, Labour could claw back some territory.

Scottish councils have a tendency to be end up as 'No Overall Control' in this political alignment, so I'd expect a lot of shuffling around, with a couple of big headlines but no earthquake.

The only thing that could significantly hurt the SNP is either a renewed support for Labour, or older voters taking a risk on Alba, if they dislike COVID policy, but neither the former (more likely) or the latter (rather unlikely) have emerged yet.

Key Council areas that I'll be watching are as follows:

• The Borders (and Dumfries and Galloway if we're being pedantic). The most Tory-friendly region of Scotland, if the Conservatives take a beating here, I think the Tories could be in for a 1997 level result here at the 2024 GE. If they narrowly retain the balance of power, I'd say the odds of local Conservative MPs like John Lamont, and Scotland Secretary Alister Jack surviving go up significantly - as the 'stop the SNP' calculus of recent years will have proven to have held firm, even in the face of partygate.
• East Fife - My home territory, and a source of frequent political disappointment. Lib Dem strength in the East will be crucial to gauging whether Lib Dem MP Wendy Chamberlain can cling on next GE, in some of the last good territory for the party.
• West Fife - In the West, there are some key tests for Labour, in territory that Gordon Brown used to represent. This was won back in 2017, but lost in 2019. If Labour are on the rebound, it's going to take far better numbers in places like this.*
• Orkney and Shetland. The safest Lib Dem bastion in the nation. However, in the 2021 election, Shetland got historically close to an SNP pickup. Councillors are traditionally independent, but the election of party-affiliated candidates is sometimes an indication of political protest, so one to keep an eye on.
• Glasgow - the big prize, of course. Labour were thrashed last time around, and the Conservatives won seats in some traditionally working class areas. While the SNP are almost certain to remain in pole-position, their plurality/majority, and the number of seats held by Labour could tell us a lot - especially in territory that Labour won in 2017, only to lose in 2019.
• Aberdeenshire - the only other Tory territory in Westminster, this area is quite swingy, and will help election campaigners work out whether the political career of Andrew Bowie MP can be salvaged. Given recent comments by Oliver Dowden (he plans to run a seat-by-seat election, as per 2015, where the party plays defence and offense in a limited number of vulnerable swing seats), this could determine whether the guy is defended, or left out to dry.
• Aberdeen and Edinburgh both have regional quirks (Lib Dems do really quite well around the University of Edinburgh, and Tories can sometimes make the southern side of Aberdeen competitive), which may tell us more about the shifting dynamics, but will almost certainly be buried by the new from Glasgow etc on election night. There's a lot more to talk about here, but I'd need backup from those who know the local political culture better to help break it all down.
• Dundee is a one-party city, and the SNP would probably have a good night here even if Nicola Sturgeon had just drowned a puppy on BBC Scotland.

*Note that Fife is a single authority, but I'm nepotistic and breaking it into two bullet points to give it more impact (I guess I'm gerrymandering my list?)

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https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1522369551031279617

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https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1522375770395529218

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Lots of very hot takes from Fleet Street about what this all means, but with under half the councils declared, and nothing from the devolved nations, it seems bizarre to impose a full narrative on it yet.

That being said, seems like a good night for the Lib Dems - especially in territory that sits in their target seats in England for 2024. Will have to see whether that’s reflected in Wales and Scotland though - I’ll be less impressed if they can’t pick up some old territory lost to the Tories and SNP there. If they can be the beneficiaries of a Tory collapse in places like David Steel’s old patch in the Borders, or claw back some support in Brecon and Radnorshire, I’ll be warmer to their electoral chances.

It’s now harder than ever to escape the idea that a Tory loss will require a significant tactical vote in ‘24. I guess the Tory election machine is going to spend every day between now and then portraying the Lib-Lab pact as an iron-cast coalition agreement, ready to plunge Britain into a leftist nightmare full of nationalised trains and proportional elections or something.

[Torrain]

First Scottish results coming in.

• Mostly Independents being elected in Orkney, (which has few party-affiliated politicians outside of Westminster and Holyrood elections), but a couple of results in the Borders.
• Tweeddale West (of the Borders Council) has reported, with 15% swing away from the Conservatives. A single result, but given how Conservative leaning the Borders has become post 2016, a potential sign of what’s to come…

It’s worth noting that all Scottish Councils use Single Transferable Vote, which, combined with our reputation for closely-fought marginals, is the reason that no party held a majority on a council between 2017-2022.

The real story is going to be in the shift. Will previous polling, showing a slight dip in SNP support and collapse for the Tories equate to the Labour gains they need to prove that the party is on the recovery? Or does the country just reshuffle a bit, with no material gains made for anyone?

Can Labour make enough progress in Glasgow to convince party HQ to invest in flipping key seats in the next election? What happens to Edinburgh - which is somehow run by a shaky SNP-Labour minority administration? It’s going to be a fascinating morning.

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Labour have won West Dumbartonshire Council from No Overall Control, making them the first party to control a majority on a Scottish council since 2017.

Results:
Labour - 12 (+4)
SNP - 9 (-1)
Residents Association 1 (+1)
Conservative 0 (-2)
Independent 0 (-2)

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Still processing what all these results mean, but there’s a part of my brain which just wants to make a bunch of “Ed Davy, electoral titan” jokes. Because somehow, he’s managed to catch the right political wind, and drag them back into their strongest form - viable, sensible protest party with middle class appeal.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1522552298949513217

[Torrain]

More Scottish councils coming in. The Northern and Western Isles remain fairly stagnant (no change in composition at all in the Hebrides), with the addition of a single Green and Labour member the only change in Shetland, and the Independents Group remain largely unchallenged.
 
Stirling is done, and looks pretty typical, with light SNP and Conservative losses, slight Labour gains. Seems likely that the SNP-Labour coalition will continue, with an increased majority.