Will Boris Johnson last to 2024?

[Torrain]

At the moment, I can see two likely outcomes:

1. Boris limps on until the local elections in May. After a poor performance, the party puts pressure on him, and either ousts him by force or lets him retires. An open leadership election follows.

2. Boris is embroiled in another scandal, or new info comes to light on an existing vulnerability. The party pushes him out in the spring, once the worst of this years’ COVID/flu season is past, ensuring he, and not his replacement, gets the blame for any winter failings. In this scenario, I think a single candidate (probably Sunak, or an alternative unity candidate) is proposed, to get the whole mess done with asap.

That’s just based on existing data though. There may be a world where Labour infighting or a burst of good news for the government (new COVID treatments, solid economic figures etc) takes the focus off the sleaze narrative and buys Johnson some time. That’s hard to believe right now - but it wouldn’t be the first political resurrection for Johnson.

[Torrain]

The Met have really saved his bacon.

Not based on the Commons this evening. As ever - Johnson might survive, but it's not looking good for him right now, given the rebuke he's been shown by numerous members of his party, right in the public view.