This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

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Reversing Cameron’s reforms feels like an express route to reliving the 8 years in the bleak, sub-200 seat wilderness that preceded his leadership. Nothing prolongs time in opposition like a purity spiral.

I just mean - vacating the centre-ground, as Labour races to claim it seems… tactically flawed.

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Suspended Conservative MP David Warburton has stumbled into the news again:

Investigative reporting by the Times has unveiled a £25k donation to his campaign in 2019, which Warburton has now declared in the parliamentary register, *4 years late. As he never registered the cash with the Electoral Commission, there’s a chance this will lead to another criminal investigation into Warburton (who has allegations of both drug and sexual misconduct offences against him).

There’s also trouble back in his constituency of Somerton and Frome - where Frome Town Council has unanimously passed a resolution declaring no-confidence in Warburton (non-binding, just making a point). They claim he hasn’t held a single constituent surgery in the town since he had the whip withdrawn in 2022. Warburton denies this allegation.

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Another deselection:
https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1629212866308894721
Clarke resigned as a trade envoy in response to Johnson's handling of the Pincher affair - so this seems to be another round of Johnsonian revenge. She's currently on maternity leave (which she *claims* has been a source of tension with local membership, and a potential trigger of deselection).

Edit: Worth noting that locals have complained about constituent service from Clarke for several years, and about inadequate replacement for Clarke during her maternity leave, so this may be more straightforward than the original reports I read.

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Suella Braverman is having trouble finding a safe seat to run in, under the new boundaries, according to the Times.

She put herself forward for the new Fareham and Waterlooville constituency, but she's having to run against Flick Drummond, who's mounted a stiffer campaign, and is understood to be the frontrunner.

She also applied (as her backup option) to the candidate list for Hamble Valley, but she'd have to push out Paul Holmes (apparently a more plausible win for her), who been representing the area since 2019. If that fails, she's apparently looking at Windsor (where Adam Afriyie is retiring) as her last-ditch attempt (not sure that would be an ideal plan, given it's a Lib Dem facing seat that may not take kindly to her brand of politics).

One MP for a nearby seat said: “Suella struggled to get selected anywhere. She’s not a good selection performer. Her views are in line with the membership but she’s not very good at charming them, I’m not sure she’s member-friendly. She’s also been in the cabinet for quite a long time and that means your engagement with grassroots issues diminishes.”

The MP said the constituency she was eyeing up was “quite a home counties seat”. They said: “It’s a bit posher than you’d think, a bit less pro-Rwanda than you’d think. Even if the members there basically agree with her, they want to hear about softer stuff, not Rwanda. They’d rather have someone who they can have a nice chat to at an event about what was on TV that weekend.”

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A claim today that he wants the top NATO job

I'm sure that was met with a chuckle or two in Paris and Washington.

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Conservative Councillors in Blackpool South appear to have passed a motion of no confidence in Scott Benton, their 2019 intake MP.

I say appear, because they released a letter with uneven font, that, at one point mistakenly refers to their city as "Blackpoo". Which, I hasten to add, is something you should discuss with your GP.

It's all so weird that it could just be a hoax - but given the demographics of the Conservative Party these days, it may well just be an elderly councillor struggling with Microsoft Word.


If this is real, it'll be a tad ironic, given that Benton (someone who's gone full culture warrior, and railed against both "cultural marxism" and "cancel culture") will now have been "cancelled" himself.

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Not the biggest news this week - but we have another retirement:
https://mobile.twitter.com/WalkerWorcester/status/1631679809075003392
Walker represents one of those seats that was Tory under Thatcher and Major, Labour under all three Blair wins, and has voted Conservative ever since.

A one-nation conservative (so much so he married the CEO of one of Tony Blair’s foundations), he’s another loss for the centrist wing of the party - although, with a majority of only 6,700, in a classic bellwether seat, he was probably gone anyway.

He’s also part of an odd small faction who pushed to hold an EU Referendum in 2014, but ended up backing Remain in 2016.

**

Also, worth saying - intrigued by Conservatopia’s breakdown of the factional war in the party. It really does seem like the party is doomed to stay split between some variation on Thatcher’s infamous “drys” and “wets”, generation after generation.

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We have a prominent retirement - Sir Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee. Full statement here.

Brady was at risk - his Altrincham and Sale West constituency came down to only a 6,100 vote majority over Labour in 2019. While it has remained Conservative since its creation in 1997, good cycles for Labour have seen it won by as little as 2,000 votes in the past.

Also worth noting - his nearby constituency neighbour is fellow retiree William Wragg, with both sitting in marginal parts of Greater Manchester vulnerable to even a small decrease in Tory support.

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Pauline Latham, MP for the safe seat of Mid Derbyshire is retiring at the next election, to spend more time with family. She's 75, so feels like an understandable move.

The seat has a 15,000 Conservative majority, and the boundary changes in Derbyshire are expected to be minor (same number of MPs returned, with minor shifts in boundaries to reflect population movement), so if the party is looking for somewhere to parachute a candidate in, this might be one of their better options...

Conservative retirements now stand at 25 (26 if you count Hancock), plus three deselections.

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Richard Bacon, MP for Norfolk South is being asked not to stand for selection by local members:

Some members felt that MP for South Norfolk, Richard Bacon, has not been "visible" enough, the BBC has been told.

Both the local party and Conservative party headquarters have declined to comment. Mr Bacon, Norfolk's longest serving MP, was unavailable for comment.

It is not clear if he will fight the decision, which was made by a selection council of local members who met in Wymondham.

Party sources said he could ask for a vote of all local party members to decide whether he should stand again, or he could apply to fight another seat or just agree to stand down at the next election.

The 60-year-old was elected MP for South Norfolk in 2001 and has increased his majority at almost every election.

Does appear to be a constituency-specific issue, rather than a factional fight (for the record, Bacon backed Johnson pretty vociferiously during partygate - being the MP who suggested NHS workers "let their hair down" and broke restrictions too during lockdown).

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https://mobile.twitter.com/itvnews/status/1636499784604237824

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Thought this had happened already?

I think that was Johnson announcing he was running for selection. Just think it’s noteworthy that he’s essentially “locked in” now. Can’t formally chase a safer constituency while he’s the official candidate in U&SR.

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Indeed. Had the news on in the background over lunch, and it sounds like Johnson's defence amounts to - "Sure, I mislead Parliament, but I didn't know there was a party down the hallway, so you can't judge me".

Still kinda amazed they've got him scheduled for four hours of testimony. If his testy appearances before the Liasion Committee are anything to go by, can't imagine he's going to be cooperative or well-behaved over after one hour, let alone four.

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Craig Whittaker, MP for Calder Valley (majority of 5,774) is retiring at the next election.

Whittaker is probably most notable for being Deputy Chief Whip under Liz Truss, and attempting to resign alongside Chief Whip Wendy Morton over the chaotic fracking vote the day before she resigned - giving the immortal line "I'm absolutely f**king furious, I just don't f**king care anymore". (Obligatory ITV News clip)

His seat of Calder Valley fits a familiar pattern from these retirements - Tory until Labour took it in 1997, then retaken under Cameron. Whittaker scraped home with a 609 vote majority in 2017, so this definitely feels like one of those "writing on the wall" retirements.

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Sally-Ann Hart, who lost a reselection ballot, and faced an open selection contest, has been adopted as the candidate for her constituency. Hands, the Party Chairman had made some vague remarks about supporting our MPs, so it’s unclear whether Hart was the best of the available options, or whether this represents formal push-back on the CDO’s deselection campaign.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1638926139769880577

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Another apparent deselection (discussed on page 10 of this thread) has been reversed:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ConHome/status/1640369151746121728

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Another retirement - Stuart Anderson, in Wolverhampton South West (majority of 1,661).

An odd seat, in that Labour gained it in 2015, then lost it in 2019.

Anderson has only been an MP since 2019, and has been a whip since Johnson’s caretaker government last year.

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I think you meant to write won? It’s Rob Marris’s old seat. A weird one in that it’s had a different person elected at each election since 2005 (non consecutively Marris in 2005 & 2015) and 5 different MP’s since ‘97.

Ah, thanks, corrected it now. Typed that post out while stuck on a bus, and was flipping between two tabs. Should have double-checked...

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https://mobile.twitter.com/nicolafrichards/status/1640434776828985345
2019 intake MP, stepping down from Tom Watson’s old seat, that she won by 1,593 votes.

There’s speculation that her vague wording indicates that’s she going to try and run for the nomination in Sajid Javid’s safe seat of Bromsgrove, now he’s retiring.

Certainly there’s a former minister mouthing off to Michael Crick, and suggesting that both Richards and Anderson are standing down so they’re free to run in safer seats.

Which, although a tad cowardly, is far from unprecedented. In 1997, several backbenchers, including David Amess switched from marginal to safe seats, and most survived. Others, like Norman Lamont, were swept out with the tide. That was also an election where a boundary redraw shook up the nomination process.

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Bit of a weird situation going on with Julian Knight - he's claiming to be cleared by the police, but the Chief Whip hints there's more going on, and he won't be getting the whip back. Doesn't seem good, whatever it is.
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1641101208432570368

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Presented without comment, following legal advice.
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1641126968270757888

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Henry Smith (Crawley, majority of 8,300) is retiring, saying it's "time for a new generation".

The seat only had a 2.4k majority in 2017, and seems to be one of those bellwethers that was Tory pre-1997, Labour 1997-2010, and back to Tory since Cameron.

Smith had a wild 2022. He sternly defended Johnson until Sunak resigned. He then switched to calling for Johnson to go. He endorsed Braverman, then Truss... And then became one of the first MPs to publicly call for Truss to resign, once Braverman resigned.

Other notable moments include being endorsed by Queen's Brian May in 2015, (for his opposition to the badger cull), and demanding Karl Marx's grave marker be removed.

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One other interesting tid-bit on the electoral front - a couple of journalists have poked around the news that marginal seat MPs are increasingly looking towards safe seats, and it appears that there's been a formal process set up for those who are looking to participate in the "chicken run". Initially, this seems to have been set up by CCHQ to assist MPs who have been "displaced" by boundary reviews, but there's a sense that some MPs are exploiting the system in an attempt to survive.

We already knew Nicola Richardson (West Bromwich East) and Stuart Anderson (Wolverhampton South West) were looking to take that route, but Keiran Mullan (Crewe and Nantwich) sounds like he'll flee to Chester South and Eddisbury. Scott Benton (Blackpool South) is being very cagey about whether he'll stay in Blackpool or try elsewhere (*insert joke about what a great loss to politics Benton will be here*). And Eddie Hughes looks likely to leave Walsall to try for Chris Pincher's seat of Tamworth - assuming there isn't a by-election in the next 18 months...

The nomination in Sajid Javid's safe Bromsgrove seat seems like it'll be a brawl between several incumbents. And a three-way fight for a safe Hampshire seat between Suella Braverman, Paul Holmes and Flick Drummond seems inevitable.

Apparently the whole thing is being run by a panel dominated by members of the 1922 Committee like Sir Graham Brady and Will Wragg, which given their role in Sunak's ascension, probably isn't going down well with the right of the party...

Obviously, this does come up each time the boundaries are redrawn, but there are definitely shades of 1997, when MPs like David Amess, Brian Mawhinney (who was party chairman at the time!) and Nicholas Soames who headed for safer ground, anticipating heavy swings in their seats.

For more, Sky and the Spectator have good pieces.

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Damien Green re-adopted for the revised Ashford seat - after he failed to be selected for the new Weald of Kent seat.

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https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1643188015915847682