COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Torrain]

For the people panicking, most of Europe currently has had similar restrictions on grocery stores for weeks. We have not fallen to anarchy yet.

^Seconded.

Uk supermarkets have limited orders (to 3 of any given item, 80 items total per shop), and set aside retail hours and delivery slots for healthcare workers and the elderly. The system is strained, but a lot better than in the initial panic stage.

[Torrain]

Visualisation of the unemployment numbers. May need to click on the gif
https://twitter.com/DorsaAmir/status/1243235552666824705

[Torrain]

Is Uber still running for people who need to grocery shop or get to doctor’s appointments?

Regular service is cancelled in some badly-hit cities

https://twitter.com/Uber/status/1239970635490545670

But, there's not a blanket suspension of activity yet. They are asking for a reduction in non-essential services, in line with government advice though.

https://twitter.com/Uber/status/1245031853511208961

Sorry all I can offer in the way of information are a couple of tweets

[Torrain]

Surprised this hasn't been talked about yet in the thread, but Walmart an Target are rolling out new social distancing measures tomorrow limiting stores to 20% capacity.

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1246277075100749824

Good, the grocery store seems to be the one place you can't avoid people who don't have a mask & blatantly disregard social distancing protocols.

No.  Bad.  Very, very bad.  This will just lead to more panic buying, which means more people will turn up to shop, which will now translate into long lines outside grocery stores (4 hrs wait for milk and eggs?), which means even *more panic buying.

This is the truly apocalyptic, society-ending stuff.  Not having to share a ventilator.

Working at Target I can tell you that we have strict limits on essential items now, panic buying has pretty much been banned. I can tell you this cause I’ve been verbally harassed and berated over the past few weeks upholding them. But guess what? Those customers can get f**ked. Done being polite.

On behalf of consumers everywhere, thank you for all you're doing. And sorry that the general population have such pr*cks this last month.

In my summers behind the counter in my town's pharmacy, I was shocked by how entitled and angry the public could get about patently unreasonable things, and that was during a relatively privileged time, in a relatively privileged community.

I can't imagine what it's like being in the midst of this right now.

[Torrain]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Maybe when we have evidence (not self-reported speculation) from actual scientists along the lines of what is listed in the tweet. The 50x number you're quoting is drawn out of thin air. Your confirmation bias is showing.

Mina is also saying that's the upper bound of what he would consider an unsurprising result — if you scroll up two tweets he says it could be 2 million, 4 million, somewhere in that range. Travis is cherry-picking the highest figure he threw out and treating it like he's making a much more specific claim than he is.

I recognize that it's a high estimate, and I don't agree that it's less deadly than influenza.  My argument for weeks has been that it's slightly more deadly than the flu (probably 0.25-0.5% vs. 0.1%), but that it's not deadly enough to justify drastic changes to daily life, except perhaps for the most vulnerable.

I understand that is your argument, but it goes against all prevailing science.

The COVID-19 death rate appears to be between 1-2%, but given China's manipulation of the data, and the underreporting of home deaths in Europe, we're still confirming that. I don't want to assume that the 1-2% ballpark is spot on, it certainly seems the best guess. And I'll take journals like the Lancet, and outlets like the Economist over Twitter users any day.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30245-0/fulltext
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/03/covid-19s-death-toll-appears-higher-than-official-figures-suggest

[Torrain]

You know, GOP posters.

You belong to one of the only political parties in the western world that denies the existence of climate change as a real and man-made threat. Your party has overruled doctors, nurses and healthcare experts to impose bizarre restrictions on abortion. Your party has demeaned and belittled the scientific community as shills and liars for decades, in an astonishing display of projection.

Now, we're seeing, in frustrating detail what happens when a party indoctrinates its voters to ignore the experts on a range of scientific issues and instead trust the Trumps and DeSantis types of the world.

It doesn't surprise me that Extreme Republican and Fuzzy Bear believe they know more about epidemiology than Dr Fauci, or a suite of European doctors.

I just wish there was a way to prove them wrong that didn't involve the loss of further life.

[Torrain]

First confirmed case of Covid-19 in South Sudan

The first confirmed case of Covid-19 has been recorded in South Sudan, one of the world’s poorest states where decades of war and hunger have already devastated infrastructure.

The news was announced by Riek Machar, one of the country’s vice presidents, Reuters reports.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/05/coronavirus-live-news-cases-approach-12m-as-trump-tells-americans-to-expect-a-lot-of-death?page=with:block-5e8987988f08c35a1d11a325#block-5e8987988f08c35a1d11a325

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1246894412472483841

From the reassurance of the Queen's speech, to this.

The official statement says he plans to remain in charge of the government, and this is not an emergency appointment. Isn't really all that reassuring though. Nothing like the PM being admitted to hospital on a Sunday night (21.30 local time)

[Torrain]

Concerning Johnson, this is quite worrying.

Johnson is in his mid-50s and significantly overweight - putting him into the at-risk category. Add on the impact that stress has on the immune system, given his national role, and this could get ugly.

Johnson is determined not to give up his position, so there could be some issues with continuity of government, if his condition worsens.

If I'm honest, I'm freaking out right now. If Johnson's health worsens, or God-forbid he doesn't make it, there's going to be uncertainty and panic, just as we head into the peak of the infection here.

[Torrain]

That "admitted to hospital" (vs. taken to hospital, etc.) is troubling to me, especially ten days after initial diagnosis.  

Personally, I feel like that might just be BBC formal wording (but I'll defer to your greater medical knowledge).

The more worrying thing to me is that Johnson is being admitted to an NHS hospital out of hours. The only NHS service you could access right now is NHS 24, which is reserved for cases that you cannot wait until morning for. The government knows that the optics of this are terrible, and would do this quietly if they could.

The very fact that Johnson had to attend hospital this evening for tests is cause for major alarm.

[Torrain]

We're now hearing that UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will be chairing the Government meetings in Downing Street tomorrow.

(Raab, a widely unpopular figure, was announced in March to be the acting-PM if things go south).

[Torrain]

Concerning Johnson, this is quite worrying.

Johnson is in his mid-50s and significantly overweight - putting him into the at-risk category. Add on the impact that stress has on the immune system, given his national role, and this could get ugly.

Johnson is determined not to give up his position, so there could be some issues with continuity of government, if his condition worsens.

If I'm honest, I'm freaking out right now. If Johnson's health worsens, or God-forbid he doesn't make it, there's going to be uncertainty and panic, just as we head into the peak of the infection here.

I'll defer back to your knowledge of British English.  But from what I know about healthcare terminology, "admitted to hospital" carries a weight to it.  

And just putting on my med student cap here, if he's being "admitted to hospital" ten days after initial diagnosis, it might be precautionary just on the basis of persisting and unrelenting symptoms.  It could be serious but not necessarily an emergency.  

But you're right about the after-hours timing.  The thing that apparently causes people to seek urgent medical attention in the context of COVID is respiratory distress and pneumonia. Of course, there's no way for me to know if that's the case here.  

Thanks PQG, appreciate it. Definitely sounds like 'admitting' is a bigger deal than I thought.

And yeah, he's apparently in for tests (chest x-ray, white blood cell counts etc), but will remain in hospital overnight.

Can I ask two questions?
1. Am I right in assuming that these tests indicate that we could be in for far more serious illness here?
2. Is there significance to him being held in overnight or is that normal in a situation like this?

[Torrain]

Deep breaths, Torrain.  

And the answer to both questions is: I can't say, unfortunately.  I would need to know the specifics of his symptoms, his vitals, etc. etc.  

What we do know is that he and/or his...caretakers(?) were concerned enough to have him admitted to hospital.  Now, again, this might be because his symptoms haven't subsided, it could be that he was feeling short of breath or experiencing chest pains, etc. etc.  

As I was saying to RB: when someone is kept overnight for observation (which isn't uncommon), it means that doctors want to (a) keep an eye on a patients' present condition while (b) also wanting to be prepared for a change in condition, new or more severe symptoms, and so on.   If he's been admitted -ADMITTED - at this time in the evening, it would be highly unusual for doctors to send him home without keeping him overnight. 

But once more, as much as I'd like to answer you more conclusively, it's tough to say without knowing the PM's specifics.  It really is just a wait-and-see type situation right now.  

Thanks, I realise I was asking a lot, given how little we know right now.
I guess we really will just have to wait this one out...

[Torrain]

It would be good to have more information regarding whether it is possible for cats to infect humans:

https://twitter.com/UNMC_DrKhan/status/1246622176406470657

We saw similar things with SARS-1, the occasional infection of cats, dogs etc.

I think we should extend the old adage "Act as though you already have the virus" to our pets, and keep them distanced from individuals outside our individual households. Even if they are uninfectious now, they could become a worrying reservoir of infection in the years to come, after continuous viral mutation.

[Torrain]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52177586

Tiger at Bronx zoo tests positive for coronavirus.

I wonder about lions and bears as well, oh my!

I've seen a lot of people online moaning about using limited testing resources on animals.

But this is actually a fairly important thing to keep an eye on. We already knew this virus had zoonotic potential (ability to spread from animals to humans), but we need to be aware of any further host species.

If SARS-CoV-2 can establish infections in cats, dogs, or widespread vermin (rats etc), then there is the potential that the virus will establish a reservoir of infection within the animal population.

That could make elimination a lot harder, and make animal and pet isolation/culling a helpful step in some hard-hit areas (particularly in the developing world, which is still to feel the full brunt of this outbreak).

[Torrain]

Temporary Burials to Begin for COVID-19 Victims, Possibly in Trenches in NYC Parks: Levine

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/nyc-to-start-temporary-burials-for-covid-19-victims-likely-in-trenches-in-nyc-parks-levine/2361777/

New York City will soon need to face the "gruesome reality" of temporary burials, and they could take place in trenches dug in city parks, NYC Council Health Committee chair Mark Levine said in a tweet Monday morning.

Due to the number of dead bodies increasing on a daily basis due to COVID-19, the freezers at OCME facilities in Manhattan and Brooklyn will soon be full, Levine said.

This means that the city will probably have to turn to temporary internment in city parks, Levine said. "Trenches will be dug for 10 caskets in a line. It will be done in a dignified, orderly -- and temporary -- manner. But it will be tough for NYers to take," he wrote.

Soon after -- as the tweet gained attention -- the chair added that trenches in parks were only a contingency the city was preparing for. "But if the death rate drops enough it will not be necessary." The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner told NBC 4 it was a scenario in the OCME disaster plan, but not something currently being considered or planned for.

Mass graves in New York City.

If this doesn't drive home how dire this is, then I don't know what will. I'm numb just thinking about it.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1247241845387735043

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is now acting-PM.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1247262950425079808

First statement from Dominic Raab, the acting PM.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1247462323666800640

This is concerning on several fronts. Firstly for the good people of Tokyo, but also given that the virus seemed to be contained in Japan for the most part.

Makes me worry that the hard hit countries are destined for a second wave of infections after lockdown ends.

[Torrain]

The numbers of reported new cases and deaths appear to be the worst on Tuesdays across the board.  It's the flipside of the numbers going down every Sunday.  

We should be comparing week-to-week rather than day-to-day.

Week-to-week, new deaths have about doubled in the US this week, while new cases have risen about 50%.  Meanwhile, week-to-week new deaths and cases have fallen 20-25% in Italy and Spain.

^100%. Weekly, and eventually monthly averages, will tell us a lot more than the day to day numbers. The averages will be far more instructive than raw, day-to-day numbers.

[Torrain]

A rather unsurprising development:

CNN: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders

Just as cases are starting to plateau in some big cities and along the coasts, the coronavirus is catching fire in rural states across the American heartland, where there has been a small but significant spike this week in cases.
...
The bump in coronavirus cases is most pronounced in states without stay at home orders. Oklahoma saw a 53% increase in cases over the past week, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Over same time, cases jumped 60% in Arkansas, 74% in Nebraska, and 82% in Iowa. South Dakota saw a whopping 205% spike.

The remaining states, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming each saw an increase in cases, but more in line with other places that have stay-at-home orders. And all of those numbers may very well undercount the total cases, given a persistent lack of testing across the US.

Kristi Noem has to be one of the most inept governors in the country.

Good thing she only has to govern about 900k people.

'I took an oath when I was in congress, obviously to uphold the constitution of the United States. I believe in our freedoms and liberties,' Noem said in an interview with FOX News.

'What I've seen across the country is so many people give up their liberties for just a little bit of security. And I don't have to do that.

How can she be this irrational?
_{I mean it's South Dakota, surely you're not missing out on all that much by staying inside...}

[Torrain]

Ron DeSantis is the mayor from Jaws, isn’t he?

Actually that would be Boris Johnson, who has unironically stated that the mayor from Jaws is his role model.

^In 2006. Not that the timeline makes it much better. I'm just sick of the Independent dredging up out-of-context quotes for some 'woke' clickbait. They used to do decent journalism, but since they went online-only and became dependent on clicks, they've basically become a low-rent British Buzzfeed.

Here's the quote in full. While stupid, he was clearly just making a bizarre analogy. For crying out loud, the man wasn't even Mayor of London at this point, just a lowly backbench opposition MP, railing against the Blair government:

The real hero of Jaws is the mayor. A gigantic fish is eating all your constituents and he decides to keep the beaches open. OK, in that instance he was actually wrong. But in principle, we need more politicians like the Mayor. We are often the only obstacle against all the nonsense which is really a massive conspiracy against the taxpayer.

https://www.indy100.com/article/coronavirus-news-boris-johnson-jaws-hero-lawyer-9418346