2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NPR/status/1073598872960856064?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle...

Methinks someone wanted to avoid the January deadline for lobbying disclosures.

[Torrain]

The moment of truth has arrived.
Do we:
- get a Ducey placeholder, like his CoS etc
- get McSally
- get an out-of-the-(Atlas)-blue candidate

The two candidates I’d bet won’t be chosen are Cindy and Meghan McCain. Ducey had a chance to appoint either. If he apppoints one of the two of them, then it’s a frank admission that he appointed Kyl to help jam Kavanaugh’s confirmation through, and wants to be both admired as an opportunist and honoured as respectful, which are two mutually exclusive positions.

[Torrain]

How the hell did she win twice in a swingy House district if her political instincts are this terrible?

She did lose in 2012 despite Mitt Romney winning the district by two points. I don't think she's ever demonstrated significant appeal, within her party or to the broader electorate.

She also won by 14 in 2016, albeit over a weak opponent, while Hillary carried her district by 5. I think she has genuinely gotten weaker.

I think having to shape her existing politics to fit a more Trumpian mold has probably throw her out of her comfort zone. She just doesn't sound comfortable with the canned lines about 'Counterfeit Kelly', and she when she was fighting a primary against Ward and Arpaio, her attempts to run to the right came off as self-conscious.

I'm not saying she's a moderate, I'm just wondering whether she was more suited in the party of Romney, who she signed up to run for back in '12 and '14.

[Torrain]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/22/trump-is-making-martha-mcsallys-life-very-difficult/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2c46c54%2F5f91b1ca9d2fda0efb5153bb%2F59812affade4e26514d874e1%2F15%2F71%2F48d3c19102cf746e2704e0caa526fa6d

very dumb take from the Washington Post. It blames Trump for why McSally is losing. There is one person responsible for McSally losing two senate races, and her name is Martha McSally

it's insane that she is going this hard right in 2020 when there was no major primary challenge. Like ok, fine, go a bit far right in 2018 when you have Arpaio and Ward against you. But there is no reason to do this now 

Exactly. Especially given the lack of primary challenge, and the fact that a 2026 reelect would take place in an even more Dem-leaning AZ. She should have emulated the strategt of the last candidate to win a Senate race in AZ and run towards the centre like Sinema.

[Torrain]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/22/trump-is-making-martha-mcsallys-life-very-difficult/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2c46c54%2F5f91b1ca9d2fda0efb5153bb%2F59812affade4e26514d874e1%2F15%2F71%2F48d3c19102cf746e2704e0caa526fa6d

very dumb take from the Washington Post. It blames Trump for why McSally is losing. There is one person responsible for McSally losing two senate races, and her name is Martha McSally

it's insane that she is going this hard right in 2020 when there was no major primary challenge. Like ok, fine, go a bit far right in 2018 when you have Arpaio and Ward against you. But there is no reason to do this now 

Exactly. Especially given the lack of primary challenge, and the fact that a 2026 reelect would take place in an even more Dem-leaning AZ. She should have emulated the strategy of the last candidate to win a Senate race in AZ and run towards the centre like Sinema.

This seat is up in 2022 (remember, it's a special to fill McCain's old seat).

Point taken. I guess it makes sense for her to imagine that the state could be more Trumpy in 2022.

It still feels like a bad strategy on her part though.