Are we underestimating Dean Heller's chances of re-election?

[Torrain]

It is extremely rare for Senate incumbents to survive a midterm election, when they are from the same party as the president, and the president lost the state.

The last time this happened was West Virginia in 2010.

It's not extremely rare lol. A bunch of people have done it in relatively recent times:

1998: Ernest Hollings, Byron Dorgan, Tom Daschle
2002: Susan Collins, Pete Domenici, Gordon Smith
2006: Olympia Snowe
2010: Joe Manchin (as mentioned)
2014: While no one actually pulled it off, Kay Hagan and Mark Begich came very close to doing it

Your point is valid, it does happen from time to time, but the decrease over the last few cycles, coupled with polarisation and reduced ticket-splitting  definitely put Heller at a disadvantage.

[Torrain]

It is extremely rare for Senate incumbents to survive a midterm election, when they are from the same party as the president, and the president lost the state.

The last time this happened was West Virginia in 2010.

It's not extremely rare lol. A bunch of people have done it in relatively recent times:

1998: Ernest Hollings, Byron Dorgan, Tom Daschle
2002: Susan Collins, Pete Domenici, Gordon Smith
2006: Olympia Snowe
2010: Joe Manchin (as mentioned)
2014: While no one actually pulled it off, Kay Hagan and Mark Begich came very close to doing it

Your point is valid, it does happen from time to time, but the decrease over the last few cycles, coupled with polarisation and reduced ticket-splitting  definitely put Heller at a disadvantage.

Not really arguing that Heller is favored, more against Solid using "extremely rare" as if this only happens once every hundred years or so.

Point taken.