MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Torrain]

If Cochran resigns after July 29 will the special election coincide with the 2019 Mississippi elections, or would the appointee serve until election day 2020? (Or is it some arbitrary date that defies logical sense)

[Torrain]

If Cochran resigns after July 29 will the special election coincide with the 2019 Mississippi elections, or would the appointee serve until election day 2020? (Or is it some arbitrary date that defies logical sense)

The special election would coincide with the 2019 Mississippi elections. If a candidate gets a majority in the primary, that candidate wins. If not, the runoff will be in November of 2019.

Thanks. So if Hood runs for Governor in 2019, and Cochran resigns after July 29th, then there's a chance that Hood could carry the democratic nominee over the finish line. A small chance, built on many hypotheticals, but an interesting scenario nonetheless.

[Torrain]

If Pressley doesn't run, I think Espy would be solid against McDaniel, he's giving me Doug Jones vibes.

*clapping* Doug Jones didn't win, Roy Moore lost

And Ralph Northam didn't win, Ed Gillespie lost. And tomorrow it won't be Conor Lamb who would have wom but Rick Saccone who would have lost.
Democrats never win, it's the Republicans who lose.

You're delusional if you don't believe Roy Moore was the reason that seat was lost. It was 100% him. Literally ANY other Republican would have won easily.

But the point is that Roy Moore would have won against a weaker candidate than Doug Jones.

Well yeah. I definitely agree with that.

So it's ridiculous to say that Jones's victory had nothing to do with Jones. Or that a candidate being similar to Doug Jones wouldn't be good news for that person's chances.

Jones was a great candidate. That doesn’t change the fact that a normal Republican (Luther Strange) would have beat him.

Races like AL 2017 and MA 2010 require three perfect storms to occur:
1. Poor candidate quality on the incumbent party's behalf, (typically worsened by scandal)
2. A strong wave-insurance type candidate, with a compelling life story/experience, who can come out swinging and fight for every last vote.
3. A collapse in the approval ratings of the incumbent president

To say Moore lost or Jones won is to misrepresent the race, the two are intrinsically linked.

[Torrain]

I'm not convinced that Shelton would openly run as a Democrat (which could hurt his standing with national groups).  He has described himself as being on "the very conservative end" of the Democratic Party (albeit more in a pro-development, 'Mary Norwood' type way than a socially conservative 'Joe Manchin' type way) and likes to say "there's not a Republican or a Democratic way to fix a pothole".  The non-partisan special would give him a chance to foray into statewide politics without tarnishing his brand as a pragmatic problem-solver; however, if he's unable to explain his partisan leanings effectively that would probably be the end of his campaign. 

That approach is also obviously problematic if he were to actually be elected too.

You can bet the first statement made by the GOP in the event of a Shelton win would be an invitation to caucus with them, courtesy of Sen. Gardener

[Torrain]

At a press conference with Governor Bryant, CHS doesn't respond to reporters' questions concerning her "public hanging" comments.  Its a pretty piss-poor performance by Cindy.

CHS really doesn't seem like a natural politician who's ready for prime time when she performs like this.  That's going to become much more apparent when she's on a debate stage with Mike Espy.  Delbert would have been a far superior pick to CHS.

Video Link:  https://www.facebook.com/yallpolitics/videos/492902024526498/

Seriously? If she’s accepted the debate, you’d think she’d have a prepared answer laid out already. That’s the one question that’s guaranteed to be asked. Espy’s team must have a plan to exploit the gaffe, it’s crazy that she won’t just parry it off.

[Torrain]

Didn't Obama get 43% in 2012?

Yep. Even Hillary got 40.06% in 2016.
Dems have a high floor and low ceiling here, always stuck in the low 40s in good years.
(Due to huge margins among the AA population, which is the largest, as a percent of population in the country)

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1067590794658242560

The reporter he mentions sounds like certain Atlas posters.

So that’s what happened to King Lear after the permaban...

[Torrain]

If Espy were to lose by a Beto margin, ie keep it within 4 points (hypothetically, throwing caution and conventional wisdom to the wind), what does the media narrative become?

[Torrain]

If Espy were to lose by a Beto margin, ie keep it within 4 points (hypothetically, throwing caution and conventional wisdom to the wind), what does the media narrative become?

His presidency for the next millennia is all but guaranteed.

I’d take a CNN roundtable on the odds of a Beto/Espy ticket over more caravan scaremongering.

[Torrain]

Well, when a party has ultimate control of the state they tend to have bad candidates. That's why we never have presidents from the South.

Clinton, Carter, Bush, Bush and Johnson would like a word

[Torrain]

Everyone seems pessimistically jumping the gun. No matter what happens this was a good result for Espy and makes me think Hood has a chance next year.

IF he runs.

https://hoodforgovernor.com

[Torrain]

Amite County is done. Espy gets 42 percent. Baria and the Dem Candidates in the Jungle Primary got 37 percent.

So good news, but not good enough...