Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

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Crayons out for Morning Consult.

90% shades -- 20% or more either way
70% shades 10-19%
50% shades-- 5-9%
20% shades -- under 5%
...white would be for ties (but there are none).

Is any comment necessary here?

Is this based simply on approval numbers, with a state going against Trump if he has a higher disapproval rating than approval rating?

What if we moved the goal posts a bit, in Trump's favor, and only turned states against him if either of the following were true:

a.) His approval rating was at 42% or below
b.) His disapproval rating was 60% or higher

Would he still get re-elected?

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Crayons out for Morning Consult.

90% shades -- 20% or more either way
70% shades 10-19%
50% shades-- 5-9%
20% shades -- under 5%
...white would be for ties (but there are none).

Is any comment necessary here?

Is this based simply on approval numbers, with a state going against Trump if he has a higher disapproval rating than approval rating?

What if we moved the goal posts a bit, in Trump's favor, and only turned states against him if either of the following were true:

a.) His approval rating was at 42% or below
b.) His disapproval rating was 60% or higher

Would he still get re-elected?

If (b) is true, (a) must be true as well.

Fair point. What if we just used point a? By my counts, Trump would win, 286-252, with Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine flipping back. Obviously Trump is weaker than MC polling indicates in Virginia, so if the latest election there is any indicator, he will lose it badly, making him skate by with just 273 EVs. It looks like it would come down to Pennsylvania, where he has also held up well in MC polling.

If Trump survives impeachment and gets re-elected with just 273 EVs, amidst an even worse rout in the popular vote, it is going to put severe strain on the credibility of our electoral system.

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A warning about Trump popularity: William Weld got about 10% of the primary vote at the stage at which I last saw the results for the New Hampshire primary. Yes, the Republicans had a primary in New Hampshire.

Considering that the President dominates the airwaves these days except on political ads and news not involving Democratic campaigns, such bodes ill for Trump in November. Many Republican voters can imagine better.

I'm assuming this a joke?

No joke. Trump has the Republican nomination locked up as it is, so any significant protest vote from within his own Party indicates that a significant number of people within his Party see something wrong with the sure nominee. Maybe they dislike his style, his foreign policy, or the failure of the process of impeachment.

There will be more primaries. Watch them closely. Sure, Weld would surely perform better in New Hampshire than in any state outside of New England.

I have seen polls in which Trump approval in New Hampshire is in the 30's and disapproval near 60%, something that one does not usually happen in a genuine swing state. This is what one might expect Obama to do in Alabama or Oklahoma, neither of which is close to being a swing state. 

The pertinent question remains: is there significant dissent within the GOP (in which case Trump will be unlikely to crack 42% of the popular vote nationwide), or is it simply New Hampshire?

Yeah, there were votes for other candidates, but over a hundred thousand people came out to vote for Trump too -- the highest NH primary vote for an incumbent president running for re-election in years.

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Would be a very weak excuse. His handling of the virus-crisis is weak. He could and will blame Corona for the economic downturn, but beyond the Trump-cult, would anybody really care?  

Trump doesn't need to make people certain the bad economy is due to the virus, just create enuf uncertainty that those who vote for him for non-economic reasons won't be likely to factor in the economy. So far, Trump's Caronavirus (sic) problems are politically a case of him not being able to shut the F up. However, there's no reason to believe we won't see a repeat of what we've repeatedly seen since 2016.
1. Trump says something stupid and/or terrible.
2. He goes down in the polls, giving his opponents hope that this time they've got him.
3. Trump shuts up and/or changes the topic.
4. His poll numbers go back up.
5. Lather, rinse, repeat.

I've long since stopped getting into a lather because of the number of Trump's chickens that supposedly are about to finally come home to roost.

Coronavirus is not comparable to previous brouhahas or scandals, much of which were manufactured by Trump anyway. If the virus spreads out of control and lots of people die, then it will become a story of epic federal mismanagement and incompetence. The federal government isn't doing nearly enough to provide test kits to states hit hard by the virus, there's reports of political overruling of health recommendations to protect senior citizens that are traveling, and then there's the President himself downplaying the growing number of cases and golfing in Florida instead of managing the crisis in DC. Trump may soon have a much bigger problem on his hands than just a sluggish economy, and it will be impossible to escape the blame, even with Mike Pence set us as the fall guy. Good luck running on a platform of cuts to health care and social services, in the midst of a global pandemic.

I hope for the sake of everyone's wellbeing that President Trump is right about the virus going away once the weather warms up. Stay healthy and safe out there, everybody.

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It makes me profoundly sad and deeply pessimistic about the country's future that a majority of Americans approve of the President's response to COVID-19. We're on a trajectory for thousands of deaths, a trajectory that could and should have been prevented. A majority of people think it is OK that the President decried the virus as a hoax for months and admitted to keeping sick Americans stuck on a cruise ship so that the number of sick people stayed artificially low.

It just goes to show that as bad as he is, the real problem is with the electorate.

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I’m not so sure that this can just be chalked up to a rally effect. Does half this country even agree that there is a crisis to rally around? Does anyone really think people on the East and West coasts are rallying around a guy basically absolving himself of all responsibility and leaving them to their own devices?

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I imagine this trend will soon silence the low character/low morality trolls on this forum, trying to claim that Trump has done a good job managing this crisis. No, he hasn't, as evidenced by his near complete inaction from January through most of March, his refusal to order a nation-wide stay at home order, his delayed invoking of DPA despite a low number of ventilators, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of cases and soon to be tens of thousands of deaths. Trump is phenomenally lucky that his approval rating on COVID-19 isn't way, way lower because it should be. Too bad everyday Americans are the ones who will truly suffer for his incompetence.

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Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

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Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

That's what I thought. It could have meant that those 2016 numbers translated into an advantage for Trump now (the polls shows he did worse with 2016 than 2020 when he won in 2016). It appears that it's the opposite.

I imagine that at this point, for Trump to win, he will have to either campaign very well or Biden's campaign will have to do very poorly. For Kevin McCarthy to win the Speakership, both will have to happen.

I don't even think McCarthy wins the speakership in that situation either. I have no idea which way the presidential election is going, but I think the House is Likely D. The Senate is looking increasingly Lean D.

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Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

That's what I thought. It could have meant that those 2016 numbers translated into an advantage for Trump now (the polls shows he did worse with 2016 than 2020 when he won in 2016). It appears that it's the opposite.

I imagine that at this point, for Trump to win, he will have to either campaign very well or Biden's campaign will have to do very poorly. For Kevin McCarthy to win the Speakership, both will have to happen.

I don't even think McCarthy wins the speakership in that situation either. I have no idea which way the presidential election is going, but I think the House is Likely D. The Senate is looking increasingly Lean D.

I don't really think the Presidency could be anything less than lean D if the senate was.

I'm thinking of pickups in Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and maybe elsewhere in the South, some of which could be winnable despite losing the POTUS race in each state.

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Is Morning Consult no longer doing state by state approvals?

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Garin-Hart-Yang: April 6-8

National (1003 RV):

Biden 50
Trump 43

Trump approval: 46/54


Michigan (303 LV):

Biden 50
Trump 41

Trump approval: 44/56


Wisconsin (301 LV):

Biden 48
Trump 47

Trump approval: 48/52

 Wisconsin is going to fumble away the whole damn thing.

That is why Biden needs to contest Wisconsin, but also Florida and the rest of the Midwest and Sun Belt. No false choices. We need an insurance policy because it seems like the dumbbells in Wisconsin outnumber the smart people.

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Biden has just accused or sexually assaulting women again and the Hunter Biden report is due out in Aug, by Congressional Rs and Rob Johnson. Chris Matthew's,  whom was biased towards Biden and the secular press has given Biden a free pass during primaries. The polls are gonna get tighter as they always have and Trump may indeed take a small lead by the his convention

269-269 tie and way back to White House is thru the R delegation in the House

Biden is a very weak candidate in a vacuum, but double digit negative real GDP shrinkage and double digit unemployment will hurt Trump more than any of the above will hurt Biden. The horse race will be worse for Trump in a few months, not better, imo.  Recessions and economic contractions usually take a couple quarters to sink in and really take a political toll and that toll will come at the worst possible time for Trump.

The public is going to have little tolerance for silly season, which is exactly how I'd describe the Hunter Biden report, in the midst of a full blown economic and public health crisis. There's no way the GOP can advance it as issue meriting serious discussion when millions are out of work and going hungry. The sexual assault allegations against Biden are serious, concerning, and deserving of further scrutiny -- but it doesn't bolster Trump because he is a known sexual predator.

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Trump is collapsing

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1250844159684030468?s=20

He's not really collapsing, he's just going back to where he was before the GOP circled the wagons for the impeachment hearings. His impeachment "acquittal" coincided with the last gasp of the Obama economic miracle, and the combined effects helped him rise to the mid and upper 40s. He's now just regressing to the low 40s/high 30s, which is where he normally would be when enough Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans are fed up. I fully subscribe to Rachel Bitecofer's theory that negative partisanship means he is unlikely to see his approval rating crater into the 20s, and that it may even float back up again as the 2020 campaign unfolds and independent-leaning Republican voters return to the fold.

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His approval rating has also collapsed on the Navigator tracking survey.

March 23: 47/49 (-2)
March 31: 48/51 (-3)
April 8: 45/52 (-7)
April 16: 44/54 (-10)
April 17: 43/55 (-12)

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F04.17.20.pdf

It needs to go a lot lower before we say 'collapse'. This is a reversion to his usual spot.

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His approval rating has also collapsed on the Navigator tracking survey.

March 23: 47/49 (-2)
March 31: 48/51 (-3)
April 8: 45/52 (-7)
April 16: 44/54 (-10)
April 17: 43/55 (-12)

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F04.17.20.pdf

It needs to go a lot lower before we say 'collapse'. This is a reversion to his usual spot.

He was near the positives due to the pandemic. Dipping over 10% is a collapse

I consider it a collapse when he falls through his normal level of approval. Trump's approval now has just reverted to basically where its been for the last two years or so. Lets see if he starts falling into the upper 30s, with disapproval pushing north of 60%. Thats where it was after Charlottesville. If he falls below that level, we can start talking about collapse.

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Sigh. Anything above 40% approval is a total disgrace at this point.

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Contrary to the MSN polls that show LA as a battleground state which it isnt CO and KS can give Dems 271 votes to secure the EC map and KS would give Dems the Senate majority with Barb Bollier. KS has replaced IA as the Bellwether of the election with its 6 EC votes

Is anyone really taking seriously the notion that Kansas is a battleground state for the Presidential election in 2020? Maybe down the line it will go the way of Colorado, but its hard to see it going from Trump + 20 to Biden.

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Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Egh, betting odds aren't a great metric.  

And besides, Trump +6 is pretty poor for an incumbent during a time when the country should be uniting behind its leader.  

For an impeached Russian agent who is both dumb and a criminal genius, and is also simultaneously in dementia, I would say those are very good betting odds for all of that.

Still, betting odds tell you what people think might happen, not necessarily the actual likelihood of an outcome.  There's an important separation (betting odds vs. voting intention polling)

For instance, I think Trump will win in November, but I won't be voting for him.  

Even after all this? What do you think is his most likely path?