Data guru Harry Enten: GOP in best midterm position in 80 years, predicts 236-241 seats

[Huey Long is a Republican]

You guys do know that he was talking about the 1942 midterms, which came 4 years after the GOP regained steam in 1938. In all the 80 years of polling up to this moment, the GOP never really had a lead like this yet usually had good election years (2014 was a recent example despite Dems leading by 1 by this point in 2015).

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Something does not seem right here.  If he is predicting the best environment for the GOP in 80 years then why is his seat projection have GOP underperforming in 2010 and 2014?  I assume  this is because the map in 2022 is not as favorable for the GOP as in 2010 and 2014 ?

Gerrymandering

[Huey Long is a Republican]

You guys do know that he was talking about the 1942 midterms, which came 4 years after the GOP regained steam in 1938. In all the 80 years of polling up to this moment, the GOP never really had a lead like this yet usually had good election years (2014 was a recent example despite Dems leading by 1 by this point in 2015).

I agree. I have the Republicans easily netting 100 House seats from the Democrats. Such a majority will easily hold through until the 2026 midterm elections, which will take place during Donald Trumps second term.

Wow, how kind to take my words out of context there. Nowhere did I say that I expected the GOP to make utterly massive gains like what you're saying (quite the opposite. 35-40 is currently my max position due to how gerrymandered the nation currently is). All I was saying was that the GOP was going to do extremely well with the popular vote this election cycle, far better than 2014 or 2010 from the looks of things and how polling was looking the best it has been since 1942 for Republicans. Nothing else

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Not to be a hater but there's clearly a lot of cope among Democrats here. And a lot of fake uncertainty. The midterm environment is unfortunately set and it's not changing. On the biggest issues -- inflation, gas prices, and supply chain problems -- there's no relief coming before November. That's just how Biden's cookie has crumbled.

My optimistic take is that this outcome is good for Biden's odds in '24. He gets to run as the only thing stopping a strong far right government. And the potential for a strong economy in '24 is high. I have a lot of hope that the wider societal unrest we're experiencing will mellow by 2028, so perhaps this is enough to avoid the worst threats to rule of law.

I am no longer banking on the unrest ending. Conservative are relitigating pretty much every single culture war battle since the Depression.

And it's about damn time to. It's time the culture of the country is Conservative and we make sure it stays Conservative.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Not to be a hater but there's clearly a lot of cope among Democrats here. And a lot of fake uncertainty. The midterm environment is unfortunately set and it's not changing. On the biggest issues -- inflation, gas prices, and supply chain problems -- there's no relief coming before November. That's just how Biden's cookie has crumbled.

My optimistic take is that this outcome is good for Biden's odds in '24. He gets to run as the only thing stopping a strong far right government. And the potential for a strong economy in '24 is high. I have a lot of hope that the wider societal unrest we're experiencing will mellow by 2028, so perhaps this is enough to avoid the worst threats to rule of law.

I am no longer banking on the unrest ending. Conservative are relitigating pretty much every single culture war battle since the Depression.

And it's about damn time to. It's time the culture of the country is Conservative and we make sure it stays Conservative.

So, you want to modify the current state of American culture to fit more in line with your ideals? Doesn't sound very conservative to me.

Yeah, no, I'm not going to play the classic "heh, doesn't sound very conservative to me!" game. Conservatives have been too scared to wield power effectively and use it to their benefit (which is possible, by the way). Reagan really set the Conservative movement back decades by having a hands off government approach. It's time the Conservative movement leaves the amnesty loving gipper in the past and become a new movement, one unafraid to wield power for it's benefit, one unafraid to shape the government into something that benefits the movement. Conservatives let the liberals do that for +80 years so now, it's our time.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Not to be a hater but there's clearly a lot of cope among Democrats here. And a lot of fake uncertainty. The midterm environment is unfortunately set and it's not changing. On the biggest issues -- inflation, gas prices, and supply chain problems -- there's no relief coming before November. That's just how Biden's cookie has crumbled.

My optimistic take is that this outcome is good for Biden's odds in '24. He gets to run as the only thing stopping a strong far right government. And the potential for a strong economy in '24 is high. I have a lot of hope that the wider societal unrest we're experiencing will mellow by 2028, so perhaps this is enough to avoid the worst threats to rule of law.

I am no longer banking on the unrest ending. Conservative are relitigating pretty much every single culture war battle since the Depression.

And it's about damn time to. It's time the culture of the country is Conservative and we make sure it stays Conservative.

So, you want to modify the current state of American culture to fit more in line with your ideals? Doesn't sound very conservative to me.

Yeah, no, I'm not going to play the classic "heh, doesn't sound very conservative to me!" game. Conservatives have been too scared to wield power effectively and use it to their benefit (which is possible, by the way). Reagan really set the Conservative movement back decades by having a hands off government approach. It's time the Conservative movement leaves the amnesty loving gipper in the past and become a new movement, one unafraid to wield power for it's benefit, one unafraid to shape the government into something that benefits the movement. Conservatives let the liberals do that for +80 years so now, it's our time.

You and your your movement are an enemy of humanity and all that is good and you'll be defeated. Whenever I see a gay couple get married, or a trans friend happy about going on hrt, or a female friend laugh off a man for being a misogynist, or one of my straight friends suggesting he goes with me to the pride parade, there's a little corner in my mind thinking that you and people like you are losing this battle to maintain the social hierarchy that benefits you by oppressing us. Whether you get a win now and then and get to be happy for a bit when you manage to attain some evil goals, you're still pathetic bitter losers in the long term.

You mean by actually conserving social structure and society that liberals like you have eroded for the past 80 years to the point where we're seeing people be unable to answer what a woman is, be for abortion until it's nearly the point of birth or something close to that, open borders, normalization of trans children and drag shows, the rise of depression among Women nationwide for the last few decades, the anti-white indoctrination of children, promotion of out-right lies in our education system, and the list can go on and on and on. Yeah, no, if being against that is wrong, then I do want to be right, mate. Hopefully, everything can return to normalcy once the liberalness of our culture has died out and we can have a more unified feeling of what it is to be an American, like how we felt in the 50s.