WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Huey Long is a Republican]

In 2018 Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, was in a huge blue wave and was in an era of less polarization and yet he still won by 3%. He won't win in 2024.

Honestly, all the talk about #candidatequality and #inelasticity is overblown when it comes to federal races on this forum. Tester, Manchin, and Brown are doomed no matter their approvals. In all their elections, they were incredibly fortunate in some ways - 2006 Blue Wave, 2010 WV Spec Sen was Manchin a popular governor against a non-serious candidate, 2012 had a re-elected Democratic President at the top of the ballot, and 2018 was a blue wave. Everytime an election happened for them, the environment was in the Democrats' favor. Hell, one could even extend this to Baldwin, Stabenow, King, Casey, Sinema, Rosen, and Klobuchar as well as maybe Menendez, and Heinrich. Favorable environments ensured their wins, not the "inelasticity" of the state or "quality" of a Candidate. That might have mattered pre-2000, but not anymore. It depends on who turns out their base more. Now, I know it's 2 years until 2024 and a lot can happen between now and then, but I think Manchin, Tester, and Brown are screwed as long as the GOP doesn't nominate people like Timken or Morrissey

[Huey Long is a Republican]

In 2018 Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, was in a huge blue wave and was in an era of less polarization and yet he still won by 3%. He won't win in 2024.

Honestly, all the talk about #candidatequality and #inelasticity is overblown when it comes to federal races on this forum. Tester, Manchin, and Brown are doomed no matter their approvals. In all their elections, they were incredibly fortunate in some ways - 2006 Blue Wave, 2010 WV Spec Sen was Manchin a popular governor against a non-serious candidate, 2012 had a re-elected Democratic President at the top of the ballot, and 2018 was a blue wave. Everytime an election happened for them, the environment was in the Democrats' favor. Hell, one could even extend this to Baldwin, Stabenow, King, Casey, Sinema, Rosen, and Klobuchar as well as maybe Menendez, and Heinrich. Favorable environments ensured their wins, not the "inelasticity" of the state or "quality" of a Candidate. That might have mattered pre-2000, but not anymore. It depends on who turns out their base more. Now, I know it's 2 years until 2024 and a lot can happen between now and then, but I think Manchin, Tester, and Brown are screwed as long as the GOP doesn't nominate people like Timken or Morrissey

Obviously we know the outcome of all races now. Like when in 1982 Republicans suffering from high inflation lost a bunch of seats, and nothing changed in time for the 1984 election.

So you're saying that Manchin, Tester, and Brown can overcome the partisanship of 2024 with Trump or DeSantis at the top of the ticket? I literally didn't say the other senators were doomed nor did I say Trump or DeSantis would beat Biden, I just said those three will have to overcome intense partisanship in a Presidential Election Year in a year that could be unfavorable for them in their states compared to their prior elections. I don't know if it's a fact the three win or lose, I said I think that's how it is two years out. That can change in the next two years and I will say if my thoughts change.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Manchin is going to get Blanchin'd.

I think we'll have a new term, Manchin'd, that'll describe what'll happen.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Hard to take the numbers in the OP seriously after last night's WV-02 result. Manchin is doomed.

It was from Morning Consult. Take them with a grain of salt, especially when looking at Red State dems.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Hard to take the numbers in the OP seriously after last night's WV-02 result. Manchin is doomed.

It was from Morning Consult. Take them with a grain of salt, especially when looking at Red State dems.

I know, and I don't trust Morning Consult. My post was more complaining about certain people who think Manchin can "do it again" because of these numbers.

Specficially OP.