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weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 13,953
Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83
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« on: July 28, 2022, 05:56:42 PM » |
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Using the assumption of 80% of undecideds going R (which I believe is the high end of likelihood)
Fetterman 50.4
Oz 49.6
Shapiro 52
Mastriano 48
These are the "worst case" numbers for dems, imo. I think it's more likely that polls end up being right assuming 75% of undecideds go R. That'd bring Fetterman to a 51.25-48.75 victory and Shapiro to a 52.5-47.5 win. Sounds about right to me if things keep going the way they're going.
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