SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/RepJeffDuncan/status/1308865119619817473?s=20

They aren't being subtle.

Were they ever?

In any case, the only reason Duncan is in the thread title is the punning reference, not he was ever in any risk of losing in the general.

It was actually because I was running a write-in campaign against him at one point. I didn't even think about the "Duncan Donuts" thing until Koopa made a thing for me about it saying "SC RUNS FROM DUNCAN"

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

If Harrison wins, SC will have two black senators.

Historical.

But probably for 2 years---Tim Scott may retire in 2022

Harrison will be vulnerable in 2026---Jeff Duncan or Alan Wilson can defeat him.

Harrison to Duncan would be a bigger downgrade than Jones to Tuberville.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I did think of an ad that would say

“Which Lindsay Graham are you voting for?” Followed by clips of him doing all the flip-flopping.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Yeah, unless Graham makes it super clear to voters that Bledsoe supports him, you're gonna see the "Lindsay's a RINO" types voting third party.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

yeah that was not even close. And Harrison's opening statement literally said "he's just gonna fearmonger, while I have a positive vision" and that's what happened.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The debate also made me notice how shaky the R coalition actually is in SC.

Graham's fearmongering to conservatives and dodging the question on Roe was him trying to get those voters who think he's a RINO.

But then him turning around and complimenting Joe Cunningham was a play for suburban voters that look poised to flip.

If he loses one of those groups, it's not necessarily over, but it'll be damn close.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Graham got murdered at this debate lol
I have not seen a beat down like that in a very long time

No it wasn't. I watched the whole debate and thought it was a draw. Harrison should have painted Graham as a sell out to big corporates, a warmonger or SC being one of the worsts states for education and other indexes. Meanwhile Graham turned his influence in Washington a to a positive. I predict Graham by 2-4 points

South Carolina isn't the best place to run a Bernie Sanders-like campaign.

Yeah especially "muh warmongers" considering SC has such a heavily military based economy

Yeah almost every Joe Cunningham ad has him talking about how he expanded funding for Parris Island

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Graham got murdered at this debate lol
I have not seen a beat down like that in a very long time

No it wasn't. I watched the whole debate and thought it was a draw. Harrison should have painted Graham as a sell out to big corporates, a warmonger or SC being one of the worsts states for education and other indexes. Meanwhile Graham turned his influence in Washington a to a positive. I predict Graham by 2-4 points

South Carolina isn't the best place to run a Bernie Sanders-like campaign.

In any case, Harrison did speak for a fair bit on Medicaid expansion.

Not a losing issue in any way, shape or form really.
https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Amendment_2,_Medicaid_Expansion_Initiative_(August_2020)
https://ballotpedia.org/Oklahoma_State_Question_802,_Medicaid_Expansion_Initiative_(June_2020)

If it won in (non-atlas) redder states, it should win in SC.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Harrison painted Graham as he needed to, as a lying, flip flopping politician who works for the national GOP above South Carolina. Which is exactly what Graham is. Meanwhile Harrison made it quite clear what he'll do for the state, and in SC its important for him to show some bipartisanship to win.

Honestly I think Harrison needs to split all this money he's getting into ads about Graham, and into turnout operations

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Well, at least he isn’t as racist as the guy he replaced in the senate amirite

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/RossPittman8/status/1314905420532719617?s=20

Just to let you know that there are actually r downballot voters who are going for no vote/bledsoe

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

With the North Carolina race tightening is there a possibility that SC-Sen goes D while NC-Sen goes R? That would be some wild stuff.

doubtful but that would be hilarious

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I really wonder how he'd be doing if he'd stayed a McCain-style maverick rather than turning into a Trump bootlicker.

He would’ve lost, likely to John Warren (conservative businessman who came in second for the Gubernatorial primary in 2018)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Hosea Cleveland (D-SC03) releases ad

https://twitter.com/ClevelandHosea/status/1318598369657454593?s=20

By the way, any search I make that involves elections and South Carolina brings this up first: https://www.scvoterguide.com/?gclid=CjwKCAjwlbr8BRA0EiwAnt4MTuRVneJZF5KPn4O30PA2CbCJMGOc57GfRQrDA9HNEXyBXx7pkEdpFhoClvcQAvD_BwE

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Hosea Cleveland (D-SC03) releases ad

https://twitter.com/ClevelandHosea/status/1318598369657454593?s=20
By the way, any search I make that involves elections and South Carolina brings this up first: https://www.scvoterguide.com/?gclid=CjwKCAjwlbr8BRA0EiwAnt4MTuRVneJZF5KPn4O30PA2CbCJMGOc57GfRQrDA9HNEXyBXx7pkEdpFhoClvcQAvD_BwE

Is that not the toughest district in the state for dems?

Yes. Also happens to be my district.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

man I love Joe Cunningham's ads
https://twitter.com/JoeCunninghamSC/status/1319284925795762181?s=20

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1317541031504711685?s=20

a risky and desperate strategy: could hurt Harrison's potential for crossover support from pro-life/pro-gun/Trump voters by bringing up these issues of disagreement and telling them their views are "too conservative for South Carolina"

You want a hint as to how many of those people exist?

Goose egg.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Why is Lindsey Graham so unpopular in Greenville/Spartanburg?

In the 2020 primary, he was held to only a plurality of the vote in those counties despite winning 67% of the vote statewide against fragmented, weak opponents.

In the 2014 GE, the cumulative protest vote consisting of Thomas Ravenel (former Republican State Treasurer running as an independent) and the Libertarian nominee Victor Kocher got over 10% of the vote in Greenville and Spartanburg counties, while not doing as well statewide or in other Republican areas like Horry County or the Charleston or Columbia suburbs. Neither of those candidates were from that part of the state so there was no regional bump.

In the 2014 primary, those counties were among his weakest. He got only 41% of the vote in Greenville and 43% in Spartanburg while getting 56% statewide.

In the 2008 primary, he narrowly lost Greenville even though he won the primary statewide by a 2-to-1 margin. He also underperformed in Spartanburg by 10 points.

As Tiger said, these areas have a lot of folks, even in the suburbs, who think Graham is a RINO. My only guess as to why Oconee and Pickens aren't worse for him is that he used to represent that area before he became a Senator.