Polish Politics and Elections

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

wow, I hadn't seen it before, but I didn't expect the referendum questions to be so obviously biased.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

love drinking in the tears of the online right who are melting down on xitter about the results and saying Poland will now be "eastern france" and will be worse than sweden with rape statistics. Very crazy people

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Could PSL end up being kingmaker?

they've already stated they'd partner with KO and Lewica

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

First results

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/pl

Still, just 69 counted out of... 31,497. (Deep breath)

looks to be all abroad, mostly the US (77 reporting now)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

New Zealand I believe is the first abroad country to fully report. 2/2 precincts

KO 230 votes 52.15%
Lewica 99 votes 22.45%
TD 54 votes 12.24%
PiS 33 votes  7.48%
Kon 17 votes 3.85%
PJJ 5 votes 1.13%
BPT 3 votes 0.54%

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

7/8 of the votes in (250/31497) are still abroad.

More full country votes:
China:
KO 50.79%
Lewica 17.73%
TD 15.82%
Kon 7.54%
PiS 6.55%
BPT 0.99%
PJJ 0.58%

Canada:
PiS 47.07%
KO 32.41%
Kon 6.25%
Lewica 5.66%
TD 4.97%
PJJ 3.20%
BPT 0.44%

The US while not fully in accounts for half of all votes in (including those coming in that aren't abroad votes) [~40k of 78k]

PiS 40.01%
KO 35.78%
TD 8.31%
Lewica 6.65%
Kon 5.97%
PJJ 2.83%
BPT 0.46%

3 party opposition alliance just over 50%

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

PJJ is conspiracy theorists on the far right who claim COVID was a planned "medical experiment"

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The only area in Poland itself with any sizable portion of the vote in is Krakow with 6.6% in.

PiS 40.73%
KO 27.77%
TD 13.59%
Lewica 7.37%
Kon 6.74%
BS 2.21%
PJJ 1.61%

3 party opposition alliance just under a majority, 48.73%

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

That results from Kraków are only hospitals and retirement houses so aren't the best indicators.

So this would be overly PiS leaning, since it’s retirement homes?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Not sure if it was mentioned but US abroad votes are fully counted:

PiS 40.08%
KO 35.58%
TD 8.33%
Lewica 6.62%
Kon 5.97%
PJJ 2.95%
BS 0.46%

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1713911406913839491?s=20


comparing to current results as I write (71.63% in, so 7.82% more)

PiS: 37.33% (-0.21%)
KO: 28.79% (+0.23%)
TD: 14.44% (+0.02%)
Lewica: 8.29% (-0.03%)
Kon: 7.27% (+/- 0.00%)
BS: 1.90% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.65% (+0.01%)
MN: 0.17% (-0.02%)
Others: 0.16% (+0.01%)


If trends follow this perfectly to 100% (obviously they won't but why not)

PiS: 36.57%
KO: 29.62%
TD: 14.51%
Lewica: 8.18%
Kon: 7.27%
BS: 1.86%
PJJ: 1.69%
MN: 0.10%
Others: 0.20%

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

with only 2.5% more in from when I started writing that post, PiS has already gone down about as much as they did in the 7.8% before it.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

74.05% reporting (+/- compared to 71.63% in)

PiS: 37.13% (-0.20%)
KO: 28.99% (+0.20%)
TD: 14.46% (+0.02%)
Lewica: 8.31% (+0.02%)
Kon: 7.25% (-0.02%)
BS: 1.90% (+/- 0.00%)
PJJ: 1.64% (-0.01%)
MN: 0.16% (-0.01%)
Others: 0.15% (-0.01%)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Are MN actually likely to get a seat at this point? They've dropped 6-7% in some of their strongest areas in the Opole constituency (Krapkowicki and Opolski), and those areas are fully in. It looks like they have nowhere to go but down, and even if they stayed where they're at it's uncertain if they'd get a seat if my math is right.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

76.73% reporting (+/- compared to 74.05% in)

PiS: 36.93% (-0.20%)
KO: 29.20% (+0.21%)
TD: 14.49% (+0.03%)
Lewica: 8.31% (+/- 0.00%)
Kon: 7.24% (-0.01%)
BS: 1.88% (-0.02%)
PJJ: 1.64% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.16% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

MN now at 5.85% in Opole. For reference, they got 7.9% in 2019. Kon got 5.7% in 2019 in Opole, and no seats. I think MN loses their seat.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

PiS and KO continue to trade %s almost evenly as more votes come in, PiS down 0.1% from the last update I gave, KO up 0.09%.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

79.15% reporting (+/- compared to 76.73% in)

PiS: 36.78% (-0.15%)
KO: 29.33% (+0.13%)
TD: 14.47% (-0.02%)
Lewica: 8.37% (+0.06%)
Kon: 7.23% (-0.01%)
BS: 1.88% (+/- 0.00%)
PJJ: 1.64% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.16% (-0.01%)
Others: 0.14% (-0.01%)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

It's looking like the original IPSOS exit poll slightly underestimated Kon and TD while overestimating PiS and KO, but not by much.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

loving the roman statue profile pic twitter people melting down saying that the opposition winning is "eurocuck logic" because PiS is ahead of KO and that the 3 opposition parties have "totally opposing ideologies"

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

82.91% reporting (+/- compared to 79.15% in)

PiS: 36.78% (+/- 0%)
KO: 29.36% (+0.03%)
TD: 14.48% (+0.01%)
Lewica: 8.34% (-0.03%)
Kon: 7.24% (+0.01%)
BS: 1.87% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.64% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.15% (-0.01%)
Others: 0.14% (+/- 0.00%)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Opole is 98% in.

MN at 5.26% and 24,857 votes. Most of what's left is in an area they got about 6% in, so it looks like they might narrowly get in, but it'll be close.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Worth noting that Warszawa is only 60-ish percent in. It has KO over PiS 42-22 at the moment, so the rest coming in should be a big boost to KO.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

As I expected the Germans lost their seat

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

94.92% reporting (+/- compared to 82.91% in)

PiS: 36.13% (-0.65%)
KO: 30.02% (+0.66%)
TD: 14.44% (-0.04%)
Lewica: 8.44% (+0.10%)
Kon: 7.18% (-0.06%)
BS: 1.88% (+0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (-0.01%)
MN: 0.13% (-0.02%)
Others: 0.15% (+0.01%)