Current House Rating?

[King Lear]

Lean R
D+10
I still believe republicans are favored to hold the house due to the simple fact there are 230 Trump districts
to 205 Clinton districts, as we saw in the Virginia house of delegates races were Democrats gained at least 15 seats, they struggled to win in trump districts and had to sweep as many Clinton districts as possible, However I cannot rule out a scenario where democrats manage to flip the house though I do not believe it is likely at the moment, hence my Lean R rating.

[King Lear]

Likely D, closer to safe than lean.

The overconfidence is mind blowing, you’d think people would learn from last year.

[King Lear]

Likely R. The tax reform surge has been catching liberals off-guard and will lead to a crushing 2018.

My thinking as well. Rs could potentially have a net gain by picking off D held Trump districts.

This is definitely a possibility that liberals really need to pay more attention to. MN-01 and Peterson's district are incredibly vulnerable. I honestly don't really see any districts that democrats can pick up. Maybe FL-26, but Florida dems just underperformed Hillary Clinton in a special election by 10%. After the tax reform surge, this will be more like 20-25%, so even winning FL-26 is pretty unlikely.

The DNC's terrible fundraising numbers are going to hurt hard when all the GOP incumbents are going to be lavished with millions and millions of dollars by thankful donors. Trump's movement is going to become much stronger once people see an extra $1,000 in their paycheck. I really can't state enough how big this tax reform surge will be. Not to mention expanding infrastructure is going to be extremely popular with the american people.

You guys have a point, I'm under the assumption Democrats will gain the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California because I believe republicans are going to be locked out of the Senate and Governor races their, but if I'm wrong and a republican makes one of those runoffs then the republicans could hold 4 of those districts, I'm also under the assumption that democrats put up strong candidates in the two south Florida districts if they don't republicans could hold those as well because of ballot-splitting Cubans, theirs also two Trump-democratic districts in Nevada and New Hampshire democrats could potentially lose, and they may fail to pickup the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona. If all these thing go wrong then my House results projection could drop from D+10 to Even. This would mean the House is Safe R instead of Lean R.

[King Lear]

You guys have a point, I'm under the assumption Democrats will gain the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California because I believe republicans are going to be locked out of the Senate and Governor races their, but if I'm wrong and a republican makes one of those runoffs then the republicans could hold 4 of those districts, I'm also under the assumption that democrats put up strong candidates in the two south Florida districts if they don't republicans could hold those as well because of ballot-splitting Cubans, theirs also two Trump-democratic districts in Nevada and New Hampshire democrats could potentially lose, and they may fail to pickup the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona. If all these thing go wrong then my House results projection could drop from D+10 to Even. This would mean the House is Safe R instead of Lean R.

You and LimoLiberal realize I was joking right? Oh wait, you guys don't care because you're a sock of LimoLiberal and LimoLiberal is a troll.

If you're going to troll, at least be like ahugecat and be an obvious republican hack.

There's healthy skepticism (IceSpear and PNM before Alabama), and then there is blatant concern trolling like you two.

I'm not a damn sock, I'm just skeptical of this "Blue wave" after watching democrats on CNN all last year talking about how "Clintons going to win in a Landslide" only to watch her get slaughtered on Election Day. After that I have no faith in the overconfidence of democrats, who have been losing elections left and right since the 2010 midterms.

[King Lear]

You guys have a point, I'm under the assumption Democrats will gain the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California because I believe republicans are going to be locked out of the Senate and Governor races their, but if I'm wrong and a republican makes one of those runoffs then the republicans could hold 4 of those districts, I'm also under the assumption that democrats put up strong candidates in the two south Florida districts if they don't republicans could hold those as well because of ballot-splitting Cubans, theirs also two Trump-democratic districts in Nevada and New Hampshire democrats could potentially lose, and they may fail to pickup the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona. If all these thing go wrong then my House results projection could drop from D+10 to Even. This would mean the House is Safe R instead of Lean R.

You and LimoLiberal realize I was joking right? Oh wait, you guys don't care because you're a sock of LimoLiberal and LimoLiberal is a troll.

If you're going to troll, at least be like ahugecat and be an obvious republican hack.

There's healthy skepticism (IceSpear and PNM before Alabama), and then there is blatant concern trolling like you two.

I'm not a damn sock, I'm just skeptical of this "Blue wave" after watching democrats on CNN all last year talking about how "Clintons going to win in a Landslide" only to watch her get slaughtered on Election Day. After that I have no faith in the overconfidence of democrats, who have been losing elections left and right since the 2010 midterms.

Hillary was never doing very well in the polls. Her polling average was 3% over Donald Trump... what an amazing polling average. NH, Florida, PA polls all showed a close race. It's not my fault CNN doesn't know how to read goddamn polls.

It's really funny how biased news is these days, I like to sometimes flip between the various cable news networks and it's so ing predictable, you go on CNN and MSNBC and it's always "Russia, Russia, Russia, the Democrats are going to flip the house, Trumps going to get impeached", then you turn to "Fox News" and it's always "Clinton scandal, Clinton scandal, Clinton scandal, Republicans are going to gain seats in the midterms, Trumps going to be the greatest president ever", this partisan bullsh**t is repeated constantly 24/7 by these so-called "News networks" to the point you really can't tell what's real and fake anymore. This is exactly what the Republicans and their corporate supporters want, and unfortunately democrats are falling for it by retreating into their own echo-chambers (most of them believe a blue waves coming and Trumps not going to finish his term) instead of seeing how ed up the country is with republicans shoving through Tax Reform, on the verge of shredding the Saftey-net, starting a massive war
With Iran or North Korea, and if trump gets reelected (spoiler alert; he probably will) they will most likely get a 7-2 majority on the Supreme Court which will transform America into a Corporate Theocratic Dictatorship, while this is all going on Democrats will be listening to Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer tell us about a "Blue wave".

[King Lear]

My IQ is 138, how high is yours?

[King Lear]

Just to clarify, my current house forecast still is D+10, with the caveat that under the right circumstances democrats still have a pathway to a house majority. The main reason I have my forecast at D+10 is because I firmly believe democrats will flip the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California due to republicans getting locked out of the senate and governor runoffs, I also firmly believe democrats are the favorites in the two south Florida Clinton-Republican districts, the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona, along with in Comsocks, Coffmans, and Hurds districts. Meanwhile Republicans are the favorites to flip the three double-digit Trump-Democratic districts in Minnesota and the double-digit Trump-Democratic district in Pennsylvania. For democrats to actually flip the house their going to have to win even more Clinton-Republican districts plus a few Trump-Republican districts, preferably some of those in New York and New Jersey that will be feeling some negative effects of the tax bill, this is by no means easy but is definitely not impossible, however I'm not willing to go around and claim the house is already won because doing so will help lead things down the same road they went last year.

[King Lear]

Just to clarify, my current house forecast still is D+10, with the caveat that under the right circumstances democrats still have a pathway to a house majority. The main reason I have my forecast at D+10 is because I firmly believe democrats will flip the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California due to republicans getting locked out of the senate and governor runoffs, I also firmly believe democrats are the favorites in the two south Florida Clinton-Republican districts, the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona, along with in Comsocks, Coffmans, and Hurds districts. Meanwhile Republicans are the favorites to flip the three double-digit Trump-Democratic districts in Minnesota and the double-digit Trump-Democratic district in Pennsylvania. For democrats to actually flip the house their going to have to win even more Clinton-Republican districts plus a few Trump-Republican districts, preferably some of those in New York and New Jersey that will be feeling some negative effects of the tax bill, this is by no means easy but is definitely not impossible, however I'm not willing to go around and claim the house is already won because doing so will help lead things down the same road they went last year.

But like I have been saying, it will be very hard to justify going forward with an "almost victory.

I'm impressed that someone realizes that the only way next year can be a wave for democrats is if they gain control of one or both chambers. This "moral victory" crap is not going to work in the long run if democrats plan on remaining a viable political party.

[King Lear]

Safe D; net pickup anywhere from 30-80 seats

How on earth can any serious person believe the house is "Safe D" when Trump won 230 congressional districts to Clintons 205 congressional districts, meaning for democrats to flip the house they need to sweep as many of the 23 Clinton-Republican districts as possible, hold all the 12 Trump-Democratic districts, and win a few marginal Trump-Republican districts. This means that if democrats win the house majority it will be a narrow majority of 220 seats or so not some massive 80 seat gain that involves democrats flipping seats trump won by double-digits which will never happen in this polarized climate.

[King Lear]

Safe D; net pickup anywhere from 30-80 seats

How on earth can any serious person believe the house is "Safe D" when Trump won 230 congressional districts to Clintons 205 congressional districts, meaning for democrats to flip the house they need to sweep as many of the 23 Clinton-Republican districts as possible, hold all the 12 Trump-Democratic districts, and win a few marginal Trump-Republican districts. This means that if democrats win the house majority it will be a narrow majority of 220 seats or so not some massive 80 seat gain that involves democrats flipping seats trump won by double-digits which will never happen in this polarized climate.

In 2008,  John McCain won 178 districts.

That was a fluke election that occurred with an economic crash and the first black presidential nominee running and getting historic black turnout that will probably never be seen again.

[King Lear]

IIRC, George W. Bush won ~230 Districts in '04.

That was in a era of significantly less polarization down the ballot, remember back then democrats still held most of the congressional districts in Appalachia, and held many white districts in the Deep South that are simply unwinnable today.

[King Lear]

That was a fluke election that occurred with an economic crash and the first black presidential nominee running and getting historic black turnout that will probably never be seen again.

Well, God knows there's nothing flukish around Donald Trump defeating Hillary Clinton when losing the popular vote by 3 million votes.

The 2016 election results were just a continuation of the trends that started in the 2000 and 2004 elections which were Appalachia, the rust belt, and the south getting more Republican, while the west coast, the northeast, and places like Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico getting more Democratic. For example 2000 was the first election since Reagen where republicans swept the south (they would do the same in 2016 with the exception of Virginia), and the first election since Reagan were Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin trended sharply to the republicans (they would go on to win all those states in 2016), while the 2004 election showed the first warning signs that Virginia was about to go Democratic (republicans losing Fairfax county) and it showed the strengthening of republican margins in white working class county's across America (these margins would get out of control in 2016) and it was the election where republicans would come closest to flipping the three rust belt states until they won all three in the 2016 election. This shows that the 2000 and 2004 elections showed most of the trends that would lead to the shocking map of 2016 instead of the 2008 and 2012 elections that were extremely flukish due to the presence of the first black president on the ballot.