My Final 2021 Gubernatorial Predictions (user search)
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  My Final 2021 Gubernatorial Predictions (search mode)
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Author Topic: My Final 2021 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 1630 times)
CookieDamage
cookiedamage
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« on: October 05, 2021, 07:12:33 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 04, 2021, 06:58:56 PM
NJ

Murphy +5.5

R's gain in legislature but don't come close to flipping anything

McAuliffe +2.5 (just like 2013!)
Sears +1
Herring +3.5

HoD: 51D/49R


Please.
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CookieDamage
cookiedamage
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Posts: 4,147
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2021, 07:32:57 PM »
NJ

Murphy +13
Murphy: 55
Ciatarelli: 42



I think Murphy loses significant ground in South Jersey compared to 2017, I still think he wins Cumberland, Gloucester, and Atlantic, but they look more like Biden's narrower wins in 2020 compared to Murphy's 2017 double digit wins.

Conversely, I expect suburban North Jersey to swing to the left compared to 2017. I think Murphy will win Somerset by anywhere from 5 to 10 points and turn a 2017 8 point loss in Morris to a 4-5 point loss.
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