Most Vulnerable House Incumbents?

[CookieDamage]

Pretty hard to answer considering we haven't seen what redistricting looks like... I'll name one of the vulnerable house incumbents who comes to mind. There are vulnerable people in both parties.

Ron Kind (D-WI-3): His district went from like D+4/D+5 in the 2000s/early 2010s to R+4 now. Biden lost his district and Kind himself only won 51-49. I think the only thing that saves him in 2022 is if WI Republicans draw new districts with incumbent protection in mind.

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On the GOP side, I think Kim, Steel, Garcia, and Malliotakis are the most vulnerable

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On the GOP side, I think Kim, Steel, Garcia, and Malliotakis are the most vulnerable

NY-11 is rated by the CPVI as R+7; the only reason Max Rose won in 2018 is because it was a Democratic wave year. However, I do see your point - with a trifecta in New York and the fact that Democrats haven't ceded over redistricting to an independent redistricting commission, the Democrats may strategize to gerrymander Malliotakis out of her seat; outside of Long Island, she's the only NYC area based Republican representative. However this will likely have limits since her district in Staten Island is actually disconnected from the rest of NY. Still, Democrats should give gerrymandering her out of office a try. And I think Kim, Steel and Garcia are safe despite all coming from decisively Biden districts (particularly Kim) - the CA Democrats ceded over their redistricting power over 52 districts to an independent redistricting commission, which likely won't significantly alter any of their three districts. While conventional knowledge says they should lose reelection in such pro-Biden districts (as they currently stand), I think voters in Southern CA may have habit of splitting their votes - Democrats on the northern region of the ballot and Republicans on the southern region of the ballot.

I think NY Democrats are pretty likely to put Staten Island with much bluer parts of Brooklyn, rendering it a pretty likely DEM pickup.

As for the three Cali Republicans, even with similar districts, I can see Garcia falling as he is so far acting like a Trumpy republican in a Biden district. I think Kim is vulnerable too considering how much Biden won her district. Steel is different considering Biden only won it by one iirc.

What powers do Cali Dems have over redistricting? I know they don't draw the districts but do they have veto power or anything like that?

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Ron Kind is DOA unless he runs statewide (I think he could beat Ron Johnson easily, and he'd be favored in an open seat race too).

So Kind could "easily" beat Ron Johnson, but is DOA if he runs for re-election? How does that make sense?

Because his district is more republican than Wisconsin in general? Not that hard to guess what NYE meant!

[CookieDamage]

Unrelated note, welcome back!

Thanks, just dropping by once every few weeks like I said I might, nothing special. A more extended break was/is easier than I thought it would be, but in any case, hope you’re doing well.

Yeah taking breaks from Atlas is easy tbh and beneficial to mental health