Which state is more likely to vote Republican in 2024?

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Trends favor Dems in both, but they favor Dems a heck of a lot more in Georgia.

Trends favoring Dems are mostly population growth in Lansing and Ann Arbor, but the growth is slow and can easily be counteracted by population loss and further right-wing trend of the rest of the state + loss of Detroit's population. Georgia is much better equipped to give Dems a win in a narrow victory (as we have already seen).

I'd say Georgia - Lean D. Michigan - Lean/Tilt D.