2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

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Chris Smith is drawn out of his district.

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What’s the thinking behind the Union-Mercer district?

I had to keep Malinowski in the district

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Chris Smith is drawn out of his district.

Do you have 2016 data on this map? This seems like one of the more realistic 11-1 maps that I've seen, though it does some weird things with the Northeast NJ districts. The fact that politicians are on the NJ commission means that incumbent concerns will matter almost as much as a legislative map, so substantially changing the Northeast NJ seats like that probably won't fly, and also you probably want to get 2 out of 3 of the Northwest NJ seats to Clinton+10 or more, so that it would probably survive even a bad year, especially given Northern New Jersey isn't really known for being inelastic, if you're going to go for 10-2/11-1.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b843cff-03c1-4dec-a053-1abe8bf13f05

Here's the link, pls tell me if it doesnt work. It should be set to 2016

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Chris Smith is drawn out of his district.

Do you have 2016 data on this map? This seems like one of the more realistic 11-1 maps that I've seen, though it does some weird things with the Northeast NJ districts. The fact that politicians are on the NJ commission means that incumbent concerns will matter almost as much as a legislative map, so substantially changing the Northeast NJ seats like that probably won't fly, and also you probably want to get 2 out of 3 of the Northwest NJ seats to Clinton+10 or more, so that it would probably survive even a bad year, especially given Northern New Jersey isn't really known for being inelastic, if you're going to go for 10-2/11-1.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b843cff-03c1-4dec-a053-1abe8bf13f05

Here's the link, pls tell me if it doesnt work. It should be set to 2016

So, after a quick look, I see several issues here, the first is in that trying to configure the northern seats in such a way, where you can get three seats, Pallone's seat has moved from Clinton+16 to Clinton+9, definitely winnable in a good year for the GOP. Also, the northern NJ seat, which is I guess is Gottheimer, but incumbent succession gets weird on this map for reasons I'll mention later, is around Clinton+8.5, which while better than the current seat is not wave proof, this could also fall in a bad year for the Democrats. So in a bad year for the Democrats, this map could once again end up as 6-6. The elimination of the Hispanic access seat is something I don't really see happening, and especially not the way it is here. Sires is from Hudson County, what seems to be the successor to his seat has left Hudson County entirely and bizarrely grabs blue chunks of Middlesex and has an awkward arm into Somerset, which includes Malinowski's home in southern Somerset. Sires, on the other hand has been drawn into what seems to be the successor to Pascrell's seat, and Pascrell's home of Paterson has been thrown into what seems to be Sherrill's successor seat. There seems to be a lot of musical chairs in the north, that along with the fact that there are not at least 8 secure seats (every Dem seat except 3 and if you want to try to hold all three, then one of 5/7/11, can and should be made secure). I honestly think this map gets at the heart of the issue of preserving all three northern seats, the incumbents do not live in the most convenient of places and reshaping the map to try to shore up all three creates major issues elsewhere.

Yeah, the one thing I don't like is how I made once safe seats less safe. I might remake a NJ map but keep a North Jersey seat very very tilt R.

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Here's the link:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c2c3b23c-435c-4240-8811-26fa056fe0be

11-1 D-R set up.

South Jersey:

I've made Van Drew's district more Dem leaning, but it will still be a competitive seat and will drift R in the future. However, this plan will give Dems a shot at maintaining their majority at least for the next few years.

The Camden district extends into Ocean County and some GOP turf, but I believe it's still a solidly Dem and wave-proof district.

Kim's district eats into Mercer County Dem areas as well as southwestern Burlington areas that once belonged to NJ-1, thus it is a slightly Dem leaning district.

Central (yes it exists):

Smith is drawn out of his district but gets a much safer seat and represents the only safe GOP district.

BWC's district is largely unchanged and retains its solid D rating. The addition of New Brunswick makes this even safer.

Pallone loses New Brunswick but I made up for this by giving him places like Linden and Rahway. It remains a likely/safe D district almost exactly like the old district.

Suburban North:

I gave Malinowksi more of southern Middlesex and some of western Essex and it ended up making his district more Dem friendly.

I gave Sherrill all of Montclair, as well as more of northern Essex. She also received Dover. This, plus the fact that Morris is continuing to become more Dem means that this seat will remain lean/likely D.

Gottheimer's district is largely unchanged.

Urban North:

Pascrell's district incorporates more GOP suburbs/exurbs west of Paterson as well as losing Clifton. However, it retains Dem areas in Passaic as well as places like Fort Lee in Bergen. All in all it becomes a few points more GOP but I don't see this seat as ever falling to the GOP.

Payne's district is the most Dem district in the state (something like ~85% DEM) as well as being a majority Black district.

Sires' district is also extremely Dem and diverse. While the voting population is plurality white, the entire population is plurality Hispanic.


Great year for Dems

11-1 Dem wave, with Van Drew going down by 1-2%.

Good year for Dems

10-2, with Van Drew holding on.

A wash

10-2 or 9-3 Dem, with Van Drew holding on and maybe Sherrill or Kim barely losing.

Decent year for GOP

9-3 or 8-4 Dem, with Van Drew holding on and the GOP beating Sherrill, Kim, and/or Gottheimer.

Good year for GOP

7-5 Dem, with Van Drew holding on and the GOP beating all of Sherrill, Kim, and Gottheimer.

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Did a state level redistricting



https://davesredistricting.org/join/29954438-a93a-49a6-9bed-7665bc2caa95

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I wonder if this spooks Dems into really gerrymandering the assembly map

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Might there be merit to going for a 10-2/9-2-1 by cutting Malinowski but giving Van Drew a Biden district, at least? It's fairly easy to make a good sink in the Northwest which shores up everyone else in the north, but a South Jersey sink is not as effective because it is going to have Atlantic City. The obvious answer, it seems to me, is to crack rather than pack, but I confess I don't know much about New Jersey redistricting, so it might be infeasible.

A south Jersey Dem district is possible but it won't be anything more than like D+3 or so, unless you really hack up the Camden district and shift it northwards, which might be possible. Even then, there's no way to draw a south jersey Dem +10 or whatever district without giving Norcross significantly more republican territory.



Something like this could work in South Jersey. NJ-1 goes from a roughly 60-40 to a 58-42 seat. NJ-2 goes from a Trump-Trump seat to one Clinton won 52-44. NJ-3 is shored up for Kim, making it a 55-40 Dem seat as well as making it an Asian opportunity district. NJ-4 is of course made to be even more of a pack.

NJ-2, however, still might not be Dem enough to survive a bad midterm in 2022, and will probably be out of reach for Dems for the time being by the end of the decade.

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Possible 10-2 map with two GOP vote sinks. There are two hispanic opportunity districts (Paterson-Hackensack; Union City-Newark-WNY) and one black near-majority district (Newark-Jersey City).

There is a Northwest GOP vote sink. Gottheimer is technically in this district but could run in the Morris-centered district, but will likely face a primary with Mikie Sherrill.

Bonnie Watson Coleman and Tom Malinowksi have been put in a single district. I think BWC would actually win this primary and easily the general.

I gave Andy Kim Trenton and Edison.

The Camden district now includes lots of red turf (Cape May) but I made up for it by giving Norcross Willingboro and Atlantic City.

The South Jersey district now has a lot more blue turf and less red turf. I gave Van Drew Sicklerville, Haddon, Collingswood, and parts of Cherry Hill.  It'll be a 55-42 district, which may flip Dem even in a bad year for Dems.

There's a district that includes inland Monmouth county as well as Plainfield, Hillside, and Union making it a 55-41 Clinton district. I don't think there's anyone who lives in this district, so either a new Dem runs or Malinowski or someone else runs here.

I gave Pallone Elizabeth, Rahway, and Roselle, shoring him up and making it less likely this district flips in 2022.

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Getting rid of JVD and Malinowski simultaneously seems to be the play for a 10-2. Creative way of accomplishing that. Is there a way of shoring up that lean D seat?

I feel like that North Jersey Lean D seat was close to a Biden +15 seat. But if you wanted to shore it up regardless, you can take bits and pieces of remaining Newark suburbs.

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It won't be 10-2 in a year like 2021 but that isn't the point. Dems need as many winnable seats as possible in a D+0 type of election.

NJ-7 also barely swung at all from 2017-21 while the rest of the state swung sharply right. Not sure Malinowski is the one to throw under.

There are a lot of factors working against Malinowski. He was the worst performing of the four swing district Dems in the state, even though his district was Biden’s best of the four. His opponent is the outgoing Senate Minority Leader who’s a household name in his state and sits in a very Democratic State Senate district. He lives in a very Republican part of his district, which is not the case for the other Democrats in the delegation. And, he is being investigated for ethic issues.

Bingo, Malinowski is easily the most toxic out of Sherrill, Kim, and even Gottheimer. Although Gottheimer may be the slimiest.

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Tried to keep incumbent homes in their districts. I've created, again, two GOP vote sinks, one on the shore and the other in the NW.

Pascrell and Sires are grouped together. Since Pascrell is 84, I can't imagine this being too much of an issue.

JVD's district is roughly Clinton +11.

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11-1 DEM gerrymander. Every blue seat is at least Clinton +12. I did not pay attention to incumbent home locations

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11-1 DEM gerrymander. Every blue seat is at least Clinton +12. I did not pay attention to incumbent home locations

Who would be NJ's lone Republican? Smith? Or would Chris Smith retire and one of the Ocean County legislators run for that seat?

Would Sweeney return to politics by running for Congress or maybe some other South Jersey Democrat?

Jeff Van Drew lives in the Republican district so he could move there and run. Unless he switches back to the Dems lol cuz the new SJ district is so much bluer and he votes more like a Dem than a Trumpy GOPer

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Also did a GOP dummymander. 7-5 GOP that probably became 9-3 DEM by 2018.

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Hmm it looks like results by municipality and not precinct

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Also did a GOP dummymander. 7-5 GOP that probably became 9-3 DEM by 2018.

Actually 12-0 DEM in 2020 lol.

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Ok yeah there's definitely an issue with the 2020 results, might be because of how NJ conducted the election??

In 2016, here's Lakewood. One of the reddest precincts (yellow circle) voted Trump 98-1, while the bluest precinct (green circle) voted Clinton like 56-40.



Contrast to 2020, where the whole township is the same shade of red and every precinct voted Trump 82-17 (mirroring the township as a whole), with some very minor variations. In the reddest precinct, that's a significant swing from 98-1, and in the bluest district, a monumental swing from 40-56.




And then we have Monroe township (in Middlesex County), which is rather divided between a democratic western half closer to the turnpike, and a more republican eastern half closer to Monmouth county.

In 2016 you can see the divide clearly. One of the more Democratic precincts (green circle) voted Clinton 66-32. The large precinct immediately to its east (yellow) was the opposite, being a Trump 62-34 precinct.



However, in 2020, both of these precincts, along with the whole township, voted Biden 54-45, with very little variation among precincts.



My hypothesis is that this municipality uniformity has something to do with how these municipalities reported their total vote, and because of the pandemic and predominantly mail in voting there was no precinct reporting.

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Omg the 2021 GOV precincts are gonna look brutal for Dems I can see it just now guys i'm shaking

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https://twitter.com/davesredist/status/1464650589162323969?s=20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UzVB1Lj7do

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Omg the 2021 GOV precincts are gonna look brutal for Dems I can see it just now guys i'm shaking

Do you think it's possible to draw 7 Ciaterelli districts?

I'm guessing 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 11 went for the GOP. That leaves 6. I think it's possible that Ciatarelli won it but it includes New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Piscataway etc so it might be hard for him to crack it.

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In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

NJ-10 is not good. Putting Mount Laurel and other parts of western Burlington with Lakewood is a bad idea. It wastes Dem votes on a district that will never go blue. Would be much better in NJ-9. NJ-9 should take Moorestown, Mt Laurel etc and shed some of those Monmouth areas.

EDIT: made those changes and NJ-9 goes from like Biden +7 to Biden +16

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My map has held up surprisingly well. 2016 is on the left, 2020 on the right. You can see the Hispanic slippage in the Paterson district. None of the blue seats fall under Biden +14. I think this is a GOP wave proof gerrymander.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7724638b-2c68-4500-93cc-6ac40a35297a

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2020 results by leg district

As of 2022 there will be 5 Biden seats held by a GOP state senator

Districts 2, 8, 21, 25, and 39.

District 16 was like Biden 60-38 and it flipped to the Dems this year.

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2020 results by leg district

As of 2022 there will be 5 Biden seats held by a GOP state senator

Districts 2, 8, 21, 25, and 39.

All of those districts also have all-Republican assembly delegations. LD-11 was also won by Biden and will have two Republican assemblywomen, though its Senator is a Democrat. It’ll also be the only district with split representation.

I feel like NJ Republicans really do punch above their weight in terms of winning territory that should be unfavorable.

Yes, Vin Gopal hung on. LD-11 was like Biden +11.3, which isn't a massive landslide but Murphy/Gopal's underperformance was very significant.