Predict Iowa for the Democrats

[Eraserhead]

As of December 21st, 2007:

Obama 33%
Edwards 26%
Clinton 25%
Richardson 7%
Biden 6%
Dodd 2%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel 0%

[Eraserhead]

Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 20%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 8%
Dodd: 3%
Kucinich: 2%

God Tender, what an optimist you are!

[Eraserhead]

Very high turnout would probably favor Obama. Very low turnout would probably favor Edwards.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 20%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 8%
Dodd: 3%
Kucinich: 2%

God Tender, what an optimist you are!

Realist. I don´t trust the Iowa electorate. They´ll go for Hillary on Jan. 3, but I hope I´m terribly wrong ...

I know... you got scared by that phoney ARG poll...

[Eraserhead]

Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 20%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 8%
Dodd: 3%
Kucinich: 2%

God Tender, what an optimist you are!

Realist. I don´t trust the Iowa electorate. They´ll go for Hillary on Jan. 3, but I hope I´m terribly wrong ...

I know... you got scared by that phoney ARG poll...

It´s not the phoney ARG poll (which was really off) but the declining trend of Obama in the Strategic Vision polls, going from +8 a couple of weeks ago to +1 now, while the LA Times has him only 3rd among likely voters, about the result I predict above.

Yeah... I am becoming pretty concerned myself. I will probably put up a less optimistic prediction in a few days.

[Eraserhead]

The LA Times sucks almost as bad as ARG.

True and they picked an awful time to poll over but I am still getting pretty damn concerned. Fcking Edwards is going to end up giving us President Clinton for at least four years!

[Eraserhead]

I'll make my final prediction late tomorrow night.

People who make their final predictions after the enterance polls come out are lame.

[Eraserhead]

Edwards 33%
Obama 28%
Clinton 20%
Dodd 11%

Edwards campaign gets a shot in the arm.  Obama's keeps on trucking.  Clinton's is staggered a bit and Dodd lives to breathe another day and has a bit of a home field advantage in NH.  None of the others can be encouraged with the results.  First to drop out will be Richardson.

11% for Dodd? You have to be kidding me.

I'm grasping a bit, but there's always a surprise in Iowa - someone who connects better than expected.  I'm thinking this year it'll be Dodd.  Unfortunately for Dodd, he'll be no better than 4th place anyway, and a fairly distant 4th at that, so I'm not sure if it'll have any real meaning.  We'll see.  How was Edwards polling 4 years ago heading into Iowa?

He was in second place.... at least in the DMR polling.

[Eraserhead]

Final Prediction (1/2/08)

Obama 33%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 26%
Biden 6%
Richardson 5%
Dodd 1%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%