Who will receive more votes (nationwide)?

[Eraserhead]

The people voting for McMullin are really confused. If Stein gets 3% in California, 2.5% in New York, 1% in Florida (where you can't even write in McMullin), etc. do you realize what a big hole that puts him in?

You have to take into account that having write-in access isn't worth jack sh*t in most cases and in many states he doesn't even have that.

He might win Utah with like 30% of the vote and grab like 10% in Idaho. They're both small states though. Where else is he going to make up the votes that Stein grabs in the big states? The math just doesn't add up.

[Eraserhead]

Voter participation was low enough in the Deep South in '48 that total votes in SC+MS+AL were about equal to UT+ID that year in spite of having 3.5x the EVs.

Yeah, but Thurmond won them overwhelmingly. He got over 70% in all of them.

If McMullin wins Utah, and I hope he does, it will be by the skin of his teeth in a multi-candidate race.
He's not going to even come close to winning Idaho, there aren't enough Mormons/Trump haters there for it to happen.

[Eraserhead]

The people voting for McMullin are really confused. If Stein gets 3% in California, 2.5% in New York, 1% in Florida (where you can't even write in McMullin), etc. do you realize what a big hole that puts him in?

I mean, if those numbers are right, sure, she'll top McMullin, but in 2012 Stein got 0.66% in CA, 0.56% in NY, and 0.11% in FL. What basis do you have to think she'll improve that dramatically on her numbers? Remember that in 2012 she wasn't widely known to be a batsh**t anti-vaccine, anti-wifi (wtf?), #LockHerUp conspiracy theorist. Oh, and let's not forget the loony anti-semite she chose for a running mate this time around.

In 2012, she wasn't widely known at all. She's a much more significant factor this year for obvious reasons. That said, she could do a lot worse than I have her doing in those states and still beat McMullin easily because he's not on the ballot in any of them (meaning almost nobody is going to vote for him in the most highly populated states in the country).

If McMullin can even match Stein's 2012 nationwide total, that'd be pretty impressive.