May 2024: Predict the popular vote

[Agafin]

Using the same style as you:


Donald Trump (R) ... 75.1 million votes | 47,8%
Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 71.9 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 5.0 million votes | 3.2%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.6 million votes | 1.0%
Cornel West (I) ... 1.1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 0.9 million votes | 0.6%
Other ... 1.4 million votes | 0,9%

Total votes cast: ~157,0 million votes

[Agafin]

As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 74.9 million votes | 48.6%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.5 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 3.2 million votes | 2.1%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.7 million votes | 1.1%
Cornel West (I) ... 1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1 million votes | 0.7%
Other ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes


Subject the change over the next months. I hope Biden can reach 50%+ again.

from 81 million in 2020 to 74 million in 2024. would that be the most raw votes an incumbent lost on record?

Bush Sr. lost almost 10 million votes...

[Agafin]

As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 74.9 million votes | 48.6%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.5 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 3.2 million votes | 2.1%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.7 million votes | 1.1%
Cornel West (I) ... 1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1 million votes | 0.7%
Other ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes


Subject the change over the next months. I hope Biden can reach 50%+ again.

from 81 million in 2020 to 74 million in 2024. would that be the most raw votes an incumbent lost on record?

Bush Sr. lost almost 10 million votes...

But Bush Sr. lost, You have Biden winning but still manage to lose 7 million voters.

I mean, that wasn't the question.