California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Agafin]

What would a Lee vs Porter map look like?

Dems would probably split north-south, and Republicans would favour Lee.

No. Just no.

Over Schiff, I think this is possible because he is so toxic to a lot of Rs.

From a numbers perspective I think the African American vote is going to be less important in California than it is in other states primaries simply due to how democratic the rest of the state is. AA communites punch above their weight in democratic primaries due to their extreme democratic registration edge. This advantage is lessend in California both because the top-two system functions as an open primary, and the broad democratic lean of other racial groups.

The black community still punches high above their proportion of them population, and I wouldn’t discount the fact that a lot latinas and other women of color will vote for Lee for similar reasons to black women, e.g. identification, relatability, etc.

In California, that has not been very much true, historically. Looking at the exit polls from the 2008 and 2020 democratic primaries (I can't find anything on 2016 anymore), black voters accounted for 7% of the electorate in both, which is not far from the CVAP share of black voters in California. Like someone else said, the fact that California white voters are so democratic reduces the impact of black voters here. In a Southern state with 5-6% black share like Cali has, you'd have expected at least 10% of the democratic primary being black.

Another thing I've seen in the exits is that black voters in California tend to "block vote" less than elsewhere, even if one of the candidate is black or popular with the broader black community. Obama "only" won black Californians by 78-18 over Clinton, less than his 82-15 nationwide win over her in 2008 with black voters. Biden also only  won them 42-18 over Sanders in 2020 while he was crushing Sanders everywhere else by 40 to 80 points among black voters. Also, although I can't find the poll anymore, I seem to remember Harris winning  in the vicinity of 70-75% of black voters in the 2016 general (which was D vs D). Basically, all of this is to say that, there is no precedence for Lee winning 90%+ of the black vote nor is there for the black share  being especially higher than the CVAP value. I don't think Black voters have ever been the decisive group in any California statewide election so if Lee is to win, she would have to be stronger elsewhere.

[Agafin]

sucks that Lee entered the race...I was hoping Porter could win and have the seat for next 30+ years

Is that now impossible?

[Agafin]

Would Porter do well with OC Democrats?

Yes but that’s not a v significant slice of the primary electorate

sucks that Lee entered the race...I was hoping Porter could win and have the seat for next 30+ years

Is that now impossible?

I would put money on a Lee v Schiff top 2.

Interesting that so many here are expecting a D vs D race. I wouldn't be so sure.

[Agafin]

Lee would probably have voted against the war on Japan in WWII, or against the civil war for that matter. It's one thing being a pacifist, it's another one entirely to be a dumb borderline security threat. People like Lee and Massie are the latter.

[Agafin]

Barbara Lee was such an anti-war icon and it's a sad way to end an amazing career.

I'll forever argue that voting against the War in Afghanistan was dumb (just like it would be dumb for Israel to ignore the October 7 attacks). So I'm happy that she has been embarassed.

[Agafin]

Can someone tell me what is the difference between the special blanket primary and the regular blanket primary? I'm seeing different sets of results depending on the website and it's confusing the hell out of me. I thought there was only one senate election?

Edit: nvm, I should've read the comments above.

[Agafin]

Western US states just can't count huh, I mean  what the hell? Florida has better turnout than CA but processes 95%+ of its votes within 2 to 3 hours.

[Agafin]

I do think Schiff played dirty in the primary but I don't see the point of Porter going all scorched earth now. She's young and if things pan out right she should have an opening to come back to the House soon enough, but antagonizing the Dem establishment so directly could make things harder for her going forward. And yeah, at the end of the day Schiff will probably be a fine Senator and a clear improvement over Feinstein.

How so? By running a better campaign than Porter?

Porter and Schiff started out basically neck and neck, the fact that Porter collapsed so badly is a sign of how weak her campaign is. That's her fault, not her opponents'.

This is kind of like saying that it's the Chiefs' "fault" that the 49ers lost the Super Bowl, the Chiefs won because they just played a better game.

By boosting Garvey's profile, obviously. Helping a Republican get on the ballot because he'll be easier to beat than a fellow Democrat is a dirty move, even if it makes perfect sense strategically.

That's the fault of the stupid California voting system. As long as that's in place candidates need to do what's best strategically under that system.

If some football coach doesn't like an NFL rule, that doesn't mean he can just have his team ignore it and instead play how he'd prefer the rules be until that rule is changed.

I don't give a sh*t about the NFL and I don't think anyone else in this thread does.

Of course the rules are the rules and I never said Schiff broke them. It's still playing dirty. If you don't see it you're just being obtuse.

I'm sorry but given that Porter essentially tried to use the same strategy (boosting the republican Eric Early), she and and her supporters (of which I assume you are or used to be one) have no leg to stand on. It's not dirty, it's campaigning and she just so happens to be bad at it. She lost fair and square.

[Agafin]

We're about half way counted in CA and the makeup of the Senate race is

D 57.3%
R 41.0%
Other 1.7%

From what I remember, I think it will oscillate a bit between a blue mirage and red mirage at this point after the in-persons were redder, but I feel like the last few cycles have been a bit confusing and all over the place in their trajectory compared to long ago, so who knows.

Just an awful performance by Porter and Lee though.

~53% in now, I think yesterday morning it was at like 47 or 48%. Slight inch up for Ds:

57.5% D
40.8% R
1.7% Other

~58% in now; so far a mini-blue shift. We've gone from D+16.3 to D+17.5 so far

D 57.9%
R 40.4%
Other 1.7%

It'll go from 16.3 to 21 or so back to 19, if it follows the same pattern as last year.

Counties completely in so far are Kings and El Dorado, according to NYT. Kings is Valadao's home turf.

Kings:

2020 Pres: Trump +12.3
2022 Gov: Dahle +30.2
2024 Sen: GOP +32.7
2022 House Primary (CD 13): GOP +26
2022 House General (CD13): Valadao +12
2024 House Primary (CD13): GOP +24

El Dorado:

2020 Pres: Trump +8.8
2022 Gov: Dahle +22.1
2024 Sen: GOP +16.4

From this, ballpark is D +19/20 in the end. Valadao might be a little weaker, given the primary margin slippage. El Dorado doesn't look that great for the GOP either.

Hmm so Dahle actually had a pretty great performance.

[Agafin]

So what's up with Santa Clara county? Why would Schiff's vote share be 60% lower in the Special compared to the Full term? That seems like a pretty drastic difference.

[Agafin]

So what's up with Santa Clara county? Why would Schiff's vote share be 60% lower in the Special compared to the Full term? That seems like a pretty drastic difference.

Probably a tabulation error.

A pretty blatant tabulation error going on for days without being corrected would be quite embarassing.

[Agafin]

Per CA SoS Website Schiffs' lead for the Full Term has been cut to about 29,000

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-senate

Unless L.A. County has some giant basket of Schiff Vote out there is a reasonable chance Garvey not only beats Schiff in the Special Primary but also in the Regular Open Primary.

Hmmm this is interesting, so the late vote is bluer but more anti-Schiff?