Nigerian Presidential Election, February 25, 2023

[Agafin]

So PDP has again nominated Atiku? If the APC nominates a Christian, wouldn't that pretty much seal the election for them?

[Agafin]

So PDP has again nominated Atiku? If the APC nominates a Christian, wouldn't that pretty much seal the election for them?

They nominated a Muslim.

Yup, but he's a southerner (southwesterner to be more precise) which spices things up a bit.

It's sad that elections in Nigeria (like in most of Africa) are essentially tribal affairs because if people actually voted based on issues, there's no way the APC should have had any chance after what happened during the EndSARS movement (especially the "Lekki gate" thing). If I were a Nigerian voter, I'd probably be an Obi supporter but would tactically vote for Atiku as the  "lesser of the two evils".

[Agafin]

I do wonder how the North will vote this time around. It's pretty obvious that the Southwest wil support Tinubu while the Southeast will largely support Atiku. But will the North choose  the Fulani Muslim who has a little too much affinity with Igbos for their taste, or the Yoruba Muslim who has the support of the outgoing northern  president.

[Agafin]

So PDP has again nominated Atiku? If the APC nominates a Christian, wouldn't that pretty much seal the election for them?

Well, the APC has pretty much done the opposite of this as their nominee (Tinubu) has just selected a northern Muslim to be his running mate. What a mess.

[Agafin]

I'm seeing a lot more tensions between PDP and Labour than between Labour and APC and that's really bad for PDP because they'd absolutely need the support of labour voters in a potential runoff against APC.

Edit:So it seems like there is a minor party NNPP with its candidate Kwankwaso who is chipping votes away from PDP in the North. And then you have the Labour party taking votes from PDP in the South. Is Atiku Abubacar so uncharismatic? He seems to be boxed out from everywhere by former party colleagues.

Edit2: Hmmm things are still very volatile.The North (the Northwest in particular ) seems to be a "swing region".

[Agafin]

Looks like Tinubu will win Ekiti, a predominantly Yoruba Christian state with a nice overperformace over Buhari. Turnout is awful though.

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/584547-just-in-nigeriadecides2023-tinubu-wins-presidential-election-in-ekiti-state.html

[Agafin]

Seems like INEC has adjourned vote collection to Monday 11am (Lagos time).

[Agafin]

Obi's numbers in the few formal results in the North are disastrous.  Like <1% disastrous.   From an identity point of view, Tinubu is in a strong position as a Muslim Yoruba which means he can capture both West and North votes. Obi will sweep the East and other urban areas but it seems less and less likely he wins a plurality vs   Tinubu.

Especially in the North West. His results in the North East and North Central aren't so bad. He seems to have won  a LGA in Adamawa. I believe northern Christians are voting for him in the North East but there are few of them. His big problem right now is that he has no path to getting 25% in 24 states. At least 13 states in Northern Nigeria won't give him the required 25%.

On the other hand, if a runoff between Tinubu and Atiku were to happen, that'd be quite interesting. Tinubu seems to be much weaker than expected in his stronghold (the SouthWest). And Atiku is not going to win the South South and South East by the same margins as Obi for obvious reasons.

[Agafin]

LP already claims fraud and rigging.  This is the best sign that Obi has lost. 

Yep, I'm kind of sad though. Obi would've absolutely been a better president than the other two. Hopefully, Atiku pulls through.

[Agafin]

Looking at outstanding votes I think Obi narrowly wins Lagos.  He was always going to do well in heavy urban areas even beyond his core region in the East.

So Tinubu might lose two Southwestern states (Osun and Lagos). Really bad for him.

[Agafin]

At this point, is it a foregone conclusion that no party will have a majority in the house or senate?

[Agafin]

Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), has won the presidential election in Lagos state.

He defeated Bola Tinubu, the All Progressives Congress (APC) standard bearer, after the votes were calculated from all the 20 LGAs in the state.

Tinubu is a former Lagos governor and the state is historically his stronghold.

APC: 572, 606

LP: 582, 354

NNPP: 8442

PDP: 75 750

SDP: 772

Accredited voters: 1,347152

Total Valid votes: 1271451

Rejected votes: 64278

Total votes cast: 1,335729

https://www.thecable.ng/breaking-peter-obi-beats-bola-tinubu-to-win-lagos/amp

Great for Obi, though as usual, turnout is awful. Not even 20%. This makes me wonder, were those elections from 1999-2015 mostly rigged? Because they had much higher turnout which might have been the result of ballot stuffing. Despite the lower turnout, the results so far actually seem completely fair.

[Agafin]

Looking at outstanding votes I think Obi narrowly wins Lagos.  He was always going to do well in heavy urban areas even beyond his core region in the East.

So Tinubu might lose two Southwestern states (Osun and Lagos). Really bad for him.

But is it not his job just to win a plurality and then get >25% in >24 states?  He seems to be in a good position to do both. And even if he does not he seems to be in a good position to win the runoff.

While he's hitting the 25% in 2/3 states, he might fail to reach the plurality. Tinubu doesn't seem to be benefitting from block voting anywhere. That's also why I'm looking at turnout just as much as actual margins. The NorthWest was typically where Buhari ran up the score and they are all down from 2019. We need to see some SS and especially SE results to see how high their turnout is. Obi is probably getting 90%+ in Anambra but it makes a huge difference if he does it with 20% turnout or 40%.

You are right though that in an eventual runoff, Tinubu starts as the favorite but you never know. Maybe Obi can make an alliance with Atiku?

[Agafin]

The first South Eastern state to fully report (Enugu) has Obi getting 94% of the vote (456k turnout).

[Agafin]

By my count, Obi has already failed to get 25% in 13 states so he can't win in a single round anymore.

[Agafin]

So who is the Condorcet winner in this election? We can safely say that it's not Obi. So the question might be simplified as, who would have won a potential Tinubu vs Atiku run-off? I think it's Atiku which means that the Obi defection will really stink for him.

Could this have an effect on the perception of Igbos by Hausa/fulanis?

[Agafin]

Seems like Jonathan has all but congratulated Tinubu already. Say what you want but that man is a true democrat.