Nigerian Presidential Election, February 25, 2023

[Agafin]

Looks like Tinubu will win Ekiti, a predominantly Yoruba Christian state with a nice overperformace over Buhari. Turnout is awful though.

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/584547-just-in-nigeriadecides2023-tinubu-wins-presidential-election-in-ekiti-state.html

[Keep Calm and ...]

Scenario maps with strongholds
https://twitter.com/adriaeln/status/1628179650458357761

Results
https://twitter.com/StearsInsights/status/1629810612409597954
https://www.stears.co/elections/2023/president/

[jaichind]

Eyeballing results https://www.stears.co/elections/2023/president/ so far it seems regional variations are even greater than in 2019

[jaichind]

The results so far do not look so good for Obi.  He is running about the same as Atiku in Igbo-heavy areas but far behind Atiku in the West and North.

[jaichind]

Watching the election commission press conference gave me the impression that they had never heard of something called excel.  There seem to be massive delays in results and the media roasts the election commission.

[Oryxslayer]

Watching the election commission press conference gave me the impression that they had never heard of something called excel.  There seem to be massive delays in results and the media roasts the election commission.

I warned you about expecting fast results. Lots of the rural area don't have reliable internet, so it may be a case of having to do things slow in those regions.

[jaichind]

Watching the election commission press conference gave me the impression that they had never heard of something called excel.  There seem to be massive delays in results and the media roasts the election commission.

I warned you about expecting fast results. Lots of the rural area don't have reliable internet, so it may be a case of having to do things slow in those regions.

Yes, but going by the media this year is way worse than previous elections.  It is sort of like the 2020 Dem Iowa Caucus.  It was always chaotic but this time it is several standard deviations worse when compared to previous elections.

[jaichind]

Obi's numbers in the few formal results in the North are disastrous.  Like <1% disastrous.   From an identity point of view, Tinubu is in a strong position as a Muslim Yoruba which means he can capture both West and North votes. Obi will sweep the East and other urban areas but it seems less and less likely he wins a plurality vs   Tinubu.

[Agafin]

Seems like INEC has adjourned vote collection to Monday 11am (Lagos time).

[jaichind]

LP already claims fraud and rigging.  This is the best sign that Obi has lost. 

[Agafin]

Obi's numbers in the few formal results in the North are disastrous.  Like <1% disastrous.   From an identity point of view, Tinubu is in a strong position as a Muslim Yoruba which means he can capture both West and North votes. Obi will sweep the East and other urban areas but it seems less and less likely he wins a plurality vs   Tinubu.

Especially in the North West. His results in the North East and North Central aren't so bad. He seems to have won  a LGA in Adamawa. I believe northern Christians are voting for him in the North East but there are few of them. His big problem right now is that he has no path to getting 25% in 24 states. At least 13 states in Northern Nigeria won't give him the required 25%.

On the other hand, if a runoff between Tinubu and Atiku were to happen, that'd be quite interesting. Tinubu seems to be much weaker than expected in his stronghold (the SouthWest). And Atiku is not going to win the South South and South East by the same margins as Obi for obvious reasons.

[Agafin]

LP already claims fraud and rigging.  This is the best sign that Obi has lost. 

Yep, I'm kind of sad though. Obi would've absolutely been a better president than the other two. Hopefully, Atiku pulls through.

[jaichind]

My understanding is the election central server went down in the middle of different counting centers trying to upload results.  This sounds like a rerun of the 1988 Mexico "the system went down."  Still, most things in this world are better explained by incompetence than conspiracy.   I am sure the election commission never did any stress test of their servers if many counter centers try to upload at the same time creating a de facto DOS attack for example.

[DavidB.]

What would be the difference between the three main candidates, in practice?

[jaichind]

LP already claims fraud and rigging.  This is the best sign that Obi has lost. 

Yep, I'm kind of sad though. Obi would've absolutely been a better president than the other two. Hopefully, Atiku pulls through.

Looking at the number so far I still think Obi beats Abubakar for second place.

[jaichind]

What would be the difference between the three main candidates, in practice?

I think Obi of LP is more left-wing while the other candidates are from the Right.  Of course, ideology does not matter.  Identity does.  The way the Northwest voted (Obi <1%) says exactly what they think of Igos.

[Peeperkorn]

Se cayó el sistema....

[Oryxslayer]

What would be the difference between the three main candidates, in practice?

I think Obi of LP is more left-wing while the other candidates are from the Right.  Of course, ideology does not matter.  Identity does.  The way the Northwest voted (Obi <1%) says exactly what they think of Igos.

Yeah, you have two main divides here: Mainstream religious denomination  - Christian v Islam with syncretic and local faiths in the mix,  and main ethnic group - Hausa Fulani, Kanuri, Yoruba, and the multitude of Igbo groups, as well as many smaller groups.

There are two traditional parties, APC and PDP. PDP services the Christians and southern groups more, APC the Muslims and the northern Groups. However, there usually has been a rotation in religion and regionality of the candidates between cycles so the bases don't solely produce the candidates. APC this time has a Yoruba SW Muslim as their presidential candidate with a North Muslim as VP, PDP has a Central Muslim with a Southern Chrirstian as VP. Obi is a former PDP'er but broke with them complaining of internal corruption and has coopted the LP ticket. He is a SE Igbo Christian with a Northern Muslim partner for VP.

So one way to look at it is that the unpopular APC government is turning so many people off right now that there is space for two PDP candidates. While runoff transfers may not be 1 to 1, especially if Abubakar and the PDP make the runoff in regards to SW turnout, both would probably win such a contest.

[Biden 2024]

[Philly D.]

If you thought turnout in Ekiti was awful, just have a look at Katsina State. In 2019, there were 1,232,133 votes for Buhari, compared to 1,058,673 total this year, which is a reduction of ~500K!

Only two of the six states to report so far have an increase in absolute numbers, and only by 7K (Osun, a state Tinubu shouldn't have lost) and 16K (Ogun). If this does not occur in Obi areas the latter might still get the most votes when all is said and done, especially as he seems to be very competitive in Kaduna and Lagos (or Tinubu automatically wins -- he's above 25% in 25 states).

[jaichind]

Looking at outstanding votes I think Obi narrowly wins Lagos.  He was always going to do well in heavy urban areas even beyond his core region in the East.

[Agafin]

Looking at outstanding votes I think Obi narrowly wins Lagos.  He was always going to do well in heavy urban areas even beyond his core region in the East.

So Tinubu might lose two Southwestern states (Osun and Lagos). Really bad for him.

[Agafin]

At this point, is it a foregone conclusion that no party will have a majority in the house or senate?

[jaichind]

Looking at outstanding votes I think Obi narrowly wins Lagos.  He was always going to do well in heavy urban areas even beyond his core region in the East.

So Tinubu might lose two Southwestern states (Osun and Lagos). Really bad for him.

But is it not his job just to win a plurality and then get >25% in >24 states?  He seems to be in a good position to do both. And even if he does not he seems to be in a good position to win the runoff.

[Agafin]

Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), has won the presidential election in Lagos state.

He defeated Bola Tinubu, the All Progressives Congress (APC) standard bearer, after the votes were calculated from all the 20 LGAs in the state.

Tinubu is a former Lagos governor and the state is historically his stronghold.

APC: 572, 606

LP: 582, 354

NNPP: 8442

PDP: 75 750

SDP: 772

Accredited voters: 1,347152

Total Valid votes: 1271451

Rejected votes: 64278

Total votes cast: 1,335729

https://www.thecable.ng/breaking-peter-obi-beats-bola-tinubu-to-win-lagos/amp

Great for Obi, though as usual, turnout is awful. Not even 20%. This makes me wonder, were those elections from 1999-2015 mostly rigged? Because they had much higher turnout which might have been the result of ballot stuffing. Despite the lower turnout, the results so far actually seem completely fair.