Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Agafin]

Can we expect >90% of the vote in before dawn? Or is this another Cali situation where mail-in ballots take ages to count?

[Agafin]

Can we expect >90% of the vote in before dawn? Or is this another Cali situation where mail-in ballots take ages to count?

The early votes are already being counted as we speak.

Ok this is cool, so it'll be more like Florida where results are known extremely fast (less than 2 hours)?

And will there be a counting bias?

[Agafin]

Can anyone else see Frederick County outside of Wshington Post and Politico. Do those results look right to you? I just checked both and they have it heavy for McAuliffe 69-30%. I think there is something wrong with Frederick County's numbers.

The Frederick result is an obvious mistake by nyt/wapo/politico. They have swapped the Youngkin/T-Mac votes. CNN and NBC have the correct vote tallies (69-30 for Youngkin). Which is also why the margin in the later two is almost 3 but below 2 points in the first three.

[Agafin]

Why is this thread so much longer than other state threads here? Is Virginia that important of a state, lol.

[Agafin]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

That's a federal race. A lot different ballgame.

Sure, but there were tons of takes in 2021 that the bad results for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia were signs of an environment that would be brutal for Democrats and subsist through 2022. There were even near-identical swings from 2020 to 2021. Evidently, they didn't mean much, and that could remain true for this year's elections going into next year.

You are forgetting one little event in 2022 that changed the calculus nationwide.

[Agafin]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

That's a federal race. A lot different ballgame.

Sure, but there were tons of takes in 2021 that the bad results for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia were signs of an environment that would be brutal for Democrats and subsist through 2022. There were even near-identical swings from 2020 to 2021. Evidently, they didn't mean much, and that could remain true for this year's elections going into next year.

You are forgetting one little event in 2022 that changed the calculus nationwide.

And Youngkin himself wants you to remember it.

The effects of the Roe repeal are already baked in. So there'd need to be an equally impactful event in 2024 to make the 2021-2022 trends comparable to 2023-2024.

[Agafin]

I'm properly starved for an election night right now, November 7 can't come soon enough.

[Agafin]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1720003941654483014

Wow, Obama's getting old (at least on that pic). I still picture him as the young charismatic presidential candidate from 2008.

[Agafin]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1721675111621603686?s=46

Can someone explain to me why this is a bad thing? Wouldn't regular voters (like old people) be the ones most likely to vote early in any case?