Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Former Kentuckian]

Early voting begins in Illinois on the 27th, but some counties are saying they won't be ready by then: https://www.cookcountyclerk.com/agency/early-voting

[Former Kentuckian]

Literally just voted early in-person in Illinois (the 13th Congressional district, specifically). Gladly voted for Betsy Dirksen Londrigan for Congress; held my nose and voted for JB Pritzker for Governor. There were three machines to submit paper ballots into and mine said I was the 84th person to submit a ballot in it (early voting has been going on here since September 27th)

[Former Kentuckian]

In Illinois:

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Source: https://www.politico.com/amp/newsletters/illinois-playbook/2018/10/11/big-surge-in-mail-in-ballot-requests-bost-v-kelly-race-tightens-lightfoot-swipes-at-preckwinkle-324854

[Former Kentuckian]

There have been questions on here about early turnout by region in North Dakota, so I decided to break down the early vote returns by each region myself. To determine what county goes into what region, I used the North Dakota state government's tourism site rather than just looking at the map and guessing. The North Dakota tourism page breaks the state into six regions: Northeast, Southeast, North Central, South Central, Northwest, and Southwest. I collapsed the regions into three for convenience (West, Central, and East). Here's the tourism page: https://www.ndtourism.com/all-cities I've also included the population for each region by counting the population of each region's counties based on the 2017 info from census.gov: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

North Dakota's population as of 2017: 755,393
Note on voting in North Dakota: North Dakota does NOT have voter registration.
Total number of ballots mailed: 78,643
Total number of ballots returned: 35,319
Total number of early in-person voters: 2
Source on voting numbers: https://vip.sos.nd.gov/ABEV.aspx?eid=303
Percentage of 2014 advance: 39% (http://www.electproject.org/early_2018)

Eastern North Dakota
Counties: Barnes, Cass, Cavalier, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Pembina, Richland, Ransom, Sargent, Steele, Traill, Walsh
Population : 321,536
Total ballots mailed: 28,477
Total ballots returned: 13,588

Central North Dakota
Counties: Benson, Bottineau, Burleigh, Dickey, Eddy, Emmons, Foster, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McHenry, McIntosh, McLean, Pierce, Ramsey, Rolette, Sheridan, Stutsman, Towner, Ward, Wells
Population : 276,719
Total ballots mailed: 32,900
Total ballots returned: 15,451
Total in-person: 2

Western North Dakota
Counties: Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley, Grant, Hettinger, McKenzie, Mercer, Morton, Mountrail, Oliver, Renville, Sioux, Slope, Stark, Williams
Population : 157,138
Total ballots mailed: 17,263
Total ballots returned: 6,269

Disclaimer: The number for the ballots sent by region when combined don't match up to what the ND SOS says have been mailed (it's off by 3 votes); likewise, the number for the ballots returned is off by 11 votes compared to what the ND SOS says. Though I was careful, I'm willing to admit this could be an error on my part. I'm not sure if I somehow messed up or the ND SOS site is off by a few votes (it's probably me). Regardless, I'm too lazy to go back through the numbers and check, and it doesn't affect giving an idea of overall turnout by region.

[Former Kentuckian]

Atlas' obsession with diminishing Rosen has been one of the most amusing parts of this cycle for me. Gonna be fun watching the same people deal with her as a senator post-election.

I've been critical of her campaign, but Rosen herself is not an issue and she'll be a fine Senator. Even though I've been critical of her campaign, she doesn't need to run a perfect campaign and she's not uninspiring or weak or whatever. My issues have been more with her campaign staff and handlers, but that's really insignificant in this race and more just petty complaints on my part (which I'm more than ready to admit).

Rosen will make a really nice, and refreshing, contrast to Heller. He's such a wishy-washy coward.

[Former Kentuckian]

The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

What Beet isn't telling you is that the edge in terms of percentage was larger for the Republicans (it was about 14%) a few days ago, and now it's 12.3% (44.7-32.4). Republicans have a big registration advantage in Arizona, this is to be expected.

Haven't polls also shown some registered Republican support for Sinema?

[Former Kentuckian]

How accurate has TargetSmart been in the past? I've never watched their numbers until this year.

[Former Kentuckian]

Highly doubtful they will do that in a high stakes Senate Election.

I think it was highly doubtful they would do that for a House election, but they did, and we can't wave away the fact they did or that the polls show Sinema leading. It's possible that Republican defections the last two years all reverse themselves for the general election... if so Dems are in a world of hurt nationally, though.

We've seen revolt in the Republican suburbs during the Trump era, so it's not unlikely registered Republicans in such areas could defect to Moderate Hero Sinema regardless of whether it's high stakes or not.

[Former Kentuckian]

Minnesota, Delaware, and Tennessee have surpassed their 2014 early vote numbers.

[Former Kentuckian]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at the early voting data and not freak out trying to read tea leaves or argue? That would be nice.

[Former Kentuckian]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at the early voting data and not freak out trying to read tea leaves or argue? That would be nice.

It would be nice, but it wouldn't be Atlas.

😹😹😹 I think I need to take a break from reading Atlas until election night.