The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

Reuters/Ipsos:

49% Approve
47% Disapprove

Gallup:

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

[Tender Branson]

Resurgent Republic/Ayres, McHenry & Associates:

47% Approve
49% Disapprove

49% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

[Tender Branson]

Bloomberg Poll:

51% Approve
43% Disapprove

Gallup:

47% Approve
45% Disapprove

[Tender Branson]

ABC News/Washington Post poll:

51% Approve
45% Disapprove

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 10-13, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,005 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y, with sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1121a2%202011%20Politics.pdf

[Tender Branson]

CNN:

50% Approve
47% Disapprove

Gallup:

45% Approve
46% Disapprove

[Tender Branson]

Today we have Gallup:

48% Approve (+3)
44% Disapprove (-2)

And 2 times PPP.

2012 PPP poll:

47% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0216424.pdf

DailyKos/PPP:

45% Approve
51% Disapprove

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/3/10

And YouGov (RV):

48% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/20110308trackingreport.pdf

Rasmussen looks like a weird outlier ...

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen: 44-55 (+2, -1)

Gallup: 50-43 (+2, -1)

Ohio (PPP): 47-46

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0317925.pdf

[Tender Branson]

PPP is very likely to poll Michigan next, thus making it likely that it will be "green" soon on the map.

[Tender Branson]

FOX News Poll:

49% Approve
44% Disapprove

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 913 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from March 14 to March 16. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/17/fox-news-poll-voters-obama-deficit

[Tender Branson]

A new Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll shows the following:

49% Approve
44% Disapprove

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/some-encouraging-signs-for-the-president-20110318

[Tender Branson]

Gallup is 51-42 today (+1, -1).

[Tender Branson]

Montana, Mason-Dixon, but only an Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor poll:

Those polled were asked to rate the job performance of top Montana politicians and President Barack Obama in one of four categories: "excellent," "pretty good," "only fair" or "poor." The "excellent" and "pretty good" scores generally are combined to provide a positive job performance rating.

Montanans gave President Barack Obama a 40 percent job approval rating.

He fared considerably better with women than men in positive job performance scores. Women gave him 48 percent to men's 31 percent. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats gave the president a positive job performance score, while only 4 percent of Republicans did, while 38 percent of independents did.

The poll was done for the Gazette State Bureau by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., from March 14-16. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_c37baa50-c4b2-555a-96ed-b7851b5d80ac.html

That probably means Obama has a 45% approval rating in Montana, because a lot of "fair"-people tend to "approve" ...

[Tender Branson]

3 more polls today:

PPP/DailyKos: 47-47

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/3/17

CNN: 51-47

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/03/21/rel5b.pdf

ARG: 48-47

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/21/usobama-approval-48-appro_10_n_838706.html

[Tender Branson]

CBS News Poll:

49% Approve
41% Disapprove

As they have been, views of President Obama are polarized by partisanship. 78% of Democrats approve of the job he is doing, but that drops to 18% among Republicans. Independents are more closely divided; 46% approve, and 39% disapprove.

Obama Handling Libya

50% Approve
29% Disapprove

Obama Handling US Response to Japan

73% Approve
14% Disapprove

This poll was conducted by telephone on March 18-21, 2011 among 1,022 adults nationwide. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_Libya_Japan_032211.pdf

[Tender Branson]

YESS ! Finally we got a DC poll ( I think this is the first DC poll ever):

District of Columbia/Clarus Poll:

88% Approve

The Clarus Poll was conducted March 21-22, 2011 with a sample of 500 registered voters. Margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent. Interviews were conducted by live telephone interviewing specialists. Clarus conducted this survey for its own use. No client, candidate, or political committee sponsored or paid for this survey.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/clarus-poll-of-dc-voters-mayor-gray-posts-negative-job-rating-118481494.html

[Tender Branson]

California (Field Poll):



Re-elect Obama as President?

In this survey, California voters were asked whether they were inclined or not inclined to re-elect Obama to another term. The results show that 49% of voters currently favor his re-election, while 40% do not.

Obama’s re-election percentages in California compare favorably to those of his two immediate predecessors in office.

In July 2003, during the third year of Republican President George W. Bush’s first term, a Field Poll showed that California voters were about evenly split about his re-election — 46% inclined and 44% disinclined.. While Bush narrowly won reelection nationally, he ended up losing California to Democrat Senator John Kerry by ten points.

In 1995, during the third year of Democratic President Bill Clinton’s first term, more Californians were disinclined (56%) than inclined (36%) to re-elect him to another term. National polls at the time were showing similar sentiments among U.S. voters. However, the mood of voters here and countrywide swung around and Clinton was re-elected in 1996. In that election he carried California by thirteen points over Republican Senator Bob Dole.

http://media.sacbee.com/smedia/2011/03/22/15/fieldpoll.source.prod_affiliate.4.pdf

[Tender Branson]

pbrower, you need to change your map for DC.

DC is still blue on it, it needs to be dark green.

[Tender Branson]

lol lol lol lol

I have a hard enough time buying Rasmussen's numbers, these are just silly.

It has to do with the fact that Hillary2012 not only posts an Internet poll by Harris, but the fact that it's also an "Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor" poll, which cannot be compared with "Approve/Disapprove" polls. A really good number of "Fair" voters would vote "Approve" in such a poll, therefore Harris' model underestimates Obama's support by at least 5%.

And pbrower, you need to change the code in your map for DC:

DC=2;C;9&FL=4;A;3&GA=4;S;5

to

DC=3;C;9&FL=4;A;3&GA=4;S;5

[Tender Branson]

CA (PPIC)

Adults: 56-38

Registered Voters: 54-42

Likely Voters: 52-44

Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,000 California adult residents interviewed on landlines and cell phones from March 8–15, 2011. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish according to respondents’ preferences. The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±2.8 percent for all adults, ±3.7 percent for the 1,328 registered voters, and ±4.2 percent for the 935 likely voters.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0311.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen is 48-52 today.

Ohio (Quinnipiac):

President Obama has a split 47 - 48 percent job approval rating, compared to 49 - 46 percent in a January 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Ohio voters are split 45 - 46 percent on whether President Barack Obama deserves a second term, but they favor him over an unnamed Republican 2012 challenger 41 - 34 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1571

[Tender Branson]

PPP/DailyKos:

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 1002 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, Mar 25, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/3/25

[Tender Branson]

NC (Civitas):

47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Perdue-Obama-Job-Approval-March-11-PR-CTs.pdf

Note for Pbrower:

Please do not change the map, the PPP North Carolina poll is the newer one.

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac:

42% Approve
48% Disapprove

In a hypothetical 2012 matchup, President Obama gets 36 percent of the vote to 37 percent for an unnamed Republican challenger.

...

From March 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,069 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1575

[Tender Branson]

Hawaii (PPP):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 898 Registered Voters, MoE 3.3%, Mar 24, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/3/24/HI/30/eQhgB

[Tender Branson]

Hawaii (PPP):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 898 Registered Voters, MoE 3.3%, Mar 24, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/3/24/HI/30/eQhgB

Libya bump.

No.

His approvals in Hawaii are always in the 60-70% range, that's nothing new.

He won there with more than 70% after all.