The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics:

53% Approve
40% Disapprove

Polling was conducted by telephone August 11-12, 2009, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/081309_poll.pdf

The Economist/YouGov (Internet Poll)

49% Approve
43% Disapprove

1000 Adults, August 9-11

http://media.economist.com/media/pdf/Toplines20090813.pdf

[Tender Branson]

NY (Quinnipiac University)

60% Approve
35% Disapprove

In today's survey, Obama wins 92 - 7 percent approval from Democrats and 50 - 42 percent support from independent voters, while Republicans turn thumbs down 73 - 20 percent.

From August 10 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,667 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1364

[Tender Branson]

Illinois (Rasmussen)

56% Approve
42% Disapprove

(Pat Quinn)

47% Approve
49% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 12, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/illinois/toplines_illinois_senate_august_12_2009

[Tender Branson]

Having Illinois 7 points more Democratic than his national numbers are actually pretty damn consistent.

Yeah, in Rasmussen-World. The poll was conducted Aug. 12, when Obama was at 47/48 nationally. 9% higher approval in IL is exactly where he was on election day, relative to the national result.

[Tender Branson]

Virginia (Washington Post)

57% Approve
41% Disapprove

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone August 11-14, 2009, among a random sample of 1,002 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_081609.html

[Tender Branson]

Funny that you then post the Washington Post.

OK, then Pennsylvania (R2000/DailyKos):

55% Favorable
40% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Pennsylvania Poll was conducted from August 10 through August 12, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/8/12/PA/345

[Tender Branson]

Virginia (Washington Post)

57% Approve
41% Disapprove

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone August 11-14, 2009, among a random sample of 1,002 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_081609.html

And yet it has McDonnell leading Deeds by 7-15 points. 

The Obama approval is among "adults", the governor race is about "registered and likely voters".

If you scroll down to the bottom, you'll notice the completely different makeup of these groups:

ADULTS: 37% IND, 31% DEM, 28% REP (IND lean 16-15 for the REPs)

RV: 35% IND, 31% DEM, 29% REP (IND lean 17-13 for the REPs)

LV: 34% IND, 27% DEM, 34% REP (IND lean 20-11 for the REPs)

So, there's a 46-44 DEM advantage among Adults, a 46-44 REP advantage among RV and a 54-38 REP advantage among LV ...

[Tender Branson]

Virginia (Washington Post)

57% Approve
41% Disapprove

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone August 11-14, 2009, among a random sample of 1,002 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_081609.html

Probably too good to be true.

Gallup's adult model had it 55-37 during the same time the WaPo adult VA poll was conducted.

The approval for VA might be on the upper hand of the 3%-MoE though, the disapproval in the state seems to be right relative to Gallup.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen to overtake Gallup in 3, 2, 1 ...

51% Approve (+2)
49% Disapprove (-1)

[Tender Branson]

Gallup:

51% Approve
41% Disapprove

PPP:

52% Approve
42% Disapprove

PPP conducted a national survey of 909 voters from August 14th to 17th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_819513.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Pew Research:

51% Approve
37% Disapprove

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a nationwide sample of 2,010 adults, 18 years of age or older, from August 11-17, 2009.

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/536.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Colorado (PPP)

49% Approve
47% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 969 Colorado voters from August 14th to 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_819.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Alabama (Capital Survey Research Center)

50% Very/somewhat satisfied with Obama's job performance
46% Very/somewhat dissatisfied with Obama's job performance

The CSRC poll indicates 47 percent of likely voters statewide are opposed to President Obama's efforts to reform the nation's health care system while 43 percent support the proposed measure. The remaining 10 percent of those surveyed don't know where they stand.

Answers to the CSRC questions were divided along party and racial lines. Approximately 97 percent of black voters and 88 percent of Democrats support Obama's efforts to reform health care. Only 34 percent of white voters and 19 percent of Republicans support the proposal.

The poll of 887 registered voters, which was taken on Aug. 12, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.

http://www.thedailysentinel.com/story.lasso?ewcd=846fb6ea77aa49e8

[Tender Branson]

ARG seems to have copied PPP's numbers:

Adults:

52% Approve
42% Disapprove

Registered Voters:

52% Approve
42% Disapprove

Among Republicans (26% of adults registered to vote in the survey and 23% of all adults in the survey), 6% approve of the way Obama is handling his job and 94% disapprove. Among Democrats (44% of adults registered to vote in the survey and 40% of all adults in the survey), 86% approve and 8% disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. Among independents (30% of adults registered to vote in the survey and 27% of all adults in the survey), 41% approve and 48% disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as president.

The results presented here are based on 1,100 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of adults 18 years and older. The interviews were completed August 16 through 19, 2009. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy

[Tender Branson]

Georgia (Rasmussen)

45% Approve
54% Disapprove

This state telephone survey of 1,200 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 18, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_georgia_healthcare_august_18_2009

[Tender Branson]

Zogby (INTERNET POLL)

45% Approve
51% Disapprove

43% Excellent/Good
56% Fair/Poor

While this latest poll shows Democrats continue to overwhelmingly approve of Obama's job performance (84%), just 6% of Republicans say the same. Most independents (59%) now disapprove of the job the President is doing.

The Zogby Interactive survey of 2,530 likely voters nationwide was conducted Aug. 18-20, 2009, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1734

[Tender Branson]

A reminder: interactive polls of any kind are unreliable.

Except if it is called "Harris" ...

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=970

[Tender Branson]

Twitters about the PPP Arkansas poll, currently in the field:

"Ark. poll is looking brutal for Democrats, but Mike Beebe still looks to have the highest approval of anyone we've polled on nationally this year.

Arkansas is definitely the birtherest state to date...it's been fun but I think we'll stop asking about it after this poll

Public Policy Polling (D) is currently in the field in the state that gave us Bill Clinton, and their survey includes this question: "Between Rush Limbaugh and Barack Obama, who do you think has the better vision for America?"

So far, PPP communications director Tom Jensen tells me, Limbaugh is winning by about ten points. The numbers could potentially narrow between now and when the survey is finished over the weekend, but Jensen is sure that Limbaugh will end up winning."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/08/early-poll-data-arkansas-likes-limbaugh-more-than-obama.php

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

[Tender Branson]

Nevada (Mason Dixon)

44% Favorable
43% Unfavorable
13% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from August 17 through August 18, 2009. A total of 400 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/august_2009_4_polls.html

[Tender Branson]

Didn't see this posted here, so

PPP
Colorado: 49% approve, 47% disapprove

Page 132 ...

[Tender Branson]

Massachusetts (Rasmussen)

59% Approve
41% Disapprove

This state telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in the state of Massachusettes was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on August 20, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/massachusetts/toplines_election_2010_massachusettes_governor_august_10_2009

Michigan (Rasmussen)

52% Approve
48% Disapprove

This state telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Michigan was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 19, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/michigan/toplines/toplines_michigan_august_19_2009

[Tender Branson]

New York (Siena Research Institute)

70% Favorable
23% Unfavorable

This SRI survey was conducted August 17-20, 2009 by telephone calls to 621 New York State registered voters. It has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party and geography to ensure representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing weighted to reflect known population patterns.

http://sienaresearchinstitute.pbworks.com/f/09+August+SNY+Poll+Release+--+FINAL.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Georgia (Strategic Vision)

37% Approve
56% Disapprove

The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted August 21-23, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_082609.htm

To East Coast Republican: Look, I´m posting a biased poll in favor of Obama ... !

[Tender Branson]

US - Public Opinion Strategies (R)

54% Approve
43% Disapprove

August 11-13 poll of 800 registered voters (MoE +/- 3.5%)

http://pos.org/inthenews/heathcare_interviewschedule.pdf

Florida - Public Opinion Strategies (R)

45% Approve
50% Disapprove

August 4-5 poll of 600 likely Florida voters (MoE +/- 4%)

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/08/gop-poll-bill-mccollum-47-alex-sink-38.html

[Tender Branson]

"Overall, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That’s the lowest level of total approval yet measured for Obama. 53% now disapprove.

81% of Democrats approve while 83% of Republicans disapprove. As for those not affiliated with either major party, 66% disapprove."