The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

Arizona (Rasmussen)

46% Approve
53% Disapprove

(Gov. Jan Brewer)

48% Approve
48% Disapprove

Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?

45% Favor
52% Oppose

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 21, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_july_21_2009

[Tender Branson]

Battleground Poll (The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners)

53% Approve (40% Strongly, DEM: 90-6, REP: 18-78, IND: 42-50)
42% Disapprove (37% Strongly)

Whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, what is your impression of Barack Obama as a person? Do you approve or disapprove of him?

72% Approve
20% Disapprove

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 61% Favorable, 36% Unfavorable
Biden: 49% Favorable, 38% Unfavorable
Palin: 42% Favorable, 47% Unfavorable

Composition of sample: 42% DEM, 37% REP, 19% IND, 1% OTHER, 1% REFUSED

1000 Registered "Likely" Voters, July 19-23, 2009

The George Washington University Battleground Poll is a collaborative bi-partisan survey produced by Republican strategist Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democrat Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.

http://www.tarrance.com/BG-37-questionnaire.pdf

http://www.tarrance.com/Battleground37GOPAnalysisCharts.pdf

[Tender Branson]

It's interesting that the Battleground Poll and the NPR Survey (both conducted by bipartisan institutes) have the same approval numbers. Both use Likely Voter Models. I guess both of them have live callers. So is it really the computer that makes up the 10%-difference from Rasmussen ?

Last time I checked Rasmussen, they had just 80% of Democrats approving, while this poll has 90% approving. Why this difference ? Rasmussen also says Independents are split, while this poll shows a leaning towards disapproval. Probably Republicans at Rasmussen disapprove by a bigger margin as well.

If you look at page 2 of the Battleground release

http://www.tarrance.com/Battleground37GOPAnalysisCharts.pdf

you will notice why Adult polls differ by about 5% from LV polls. Minority voters and therefore Democrats are far less likely to state that they "are likely to vote".

[Tender Branson]

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Um... what?

That is if Americans approve of him "as a person".

Don't ask me what the difference between this and the 61% favorable rating is though ...

[Tender Branson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Um... what?

That is if Americans approve of him "as a person".

Don't ask me what the difference between this and the 61% favorable rating is though ...

Aren't favourable/unfavourable polls asking whether you like him "as a person"?

Yeah of course, that's why I said "Don't ask me what the difference is" ...

Maybe people are more inclined to think about the job he's doing when asked about favorability, rather than just the black/white definition if Obama's a good or bad person ...

So, "Favorability" could be a mixture of his personality and job approval.

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (PPP)

53% Approve
39% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 552 New Jersey voters from July 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_729.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Plus: A new WSJ/NBC poll will be released at 6:30 pm Eastern.

[Tender Branson]

California (PPIC)

Adults:

65% Approve
27% Disapprove

Registered Voters:

62% Approve
31% Disapprove

Likely Voters:

58% Approve
35% Disapprove

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment, July 2009. Includes 2,501 adults, 2,019 registered voters, and 1,457 likely voters. Interviews took place July 7–21, 2009. Numbers in above table are for all adults. Margin of error ±2%.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0709.pdf

Very much in line with SUSA's latest CA numbers (Adults) and Rasmussen's (Likely Voters).

[Tender Branson]

Gallup down a bit further today ...

52% Approve (-1)
41% Disapprove (+2)

[Tender Branson]

Pleasantly surprised Arkansas approve of him, considering it's Arkansas.

This poll is ages old ...

[Tender Branson]

Gallup:

54-40 (+2, -1)

[Tender Branson]

Gallup today:

56-38 (+2, -2)

[Tender Branson]

Gallup today:

56-38 (+2, -2)

the bounce ...

Beer Summit Bounce or GDP Bounce?

Haven't you heard ? Obama chose the wrong beer and is therefore a unpatriotic traitor.

Therefore GDP-bounce.

[Tender Branson]

Ipsos/McClatchy (1005 Adults)

58% Approve
37% Disapprove

Quinnipiac (2409 RV)

50% Approve
42% Disapprove

New Jersey (Rasmussen, 500 LV)

56% Approve
43% Disapprove

New Jersey (R2000/DailyKos, 600 LV)

62% Favorable
31% Unfavorable

Virginia (R2000/DailyKos, 600 LV)

51% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

[Tender Branson]

Gallup new numbers

Approve 58%
Disapprove 36%

Wow...Gallup has been all over the place lately.

"Bill Clinton: Korean Saviour" bounce.

Yes, that, the economy, Sotomayor, and the liquidation of the Taleban Terrorist probably, diverting attention from domestic agendas like health care.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen today:

50% Approve
50% Disapprove

[Tender Branson]

Portland Region, Oregon (SurveyUSA, 500 adults, August 10)

56% Approve
40% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=116e21d5-bb00-4e86-9311-c5abaa0af93b

This is what SurveyUSA defines as "Portland Region":



http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_081029_files/sheet042.htm

[Tender Branson]

Virginia (Rasmussen)

48% Approve
51% Disapprove

(Tim Kaine)

56% Approve
43% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 10, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_august_10_2009

[Tender Branson]

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

54% Yes, 26% No

That's pretty embarassing considering the "Yes" is only a few points higher than the percentage that voted for him.

Actually not. Only the electorate of the Republican Party is embarrassing.

[Tender Branson]

Marist Poll:

55% Approve
35% Disapprove

This survey of 938 United States residents was conducted on August 3rd through August 6th, 2009. There are 845 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant at ±3.5%.  The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us090803/Obama_Eco%20Release/Obama%20Approval%20Rating.htm

[Tender Branson]

This poll is even more exaggerated than Gallup, which is a little exaggerated as it is.

You forget that Gallup was at 58-36 between August 3-6, when this Marist poll was conducted.

RV about 3% lower than adults is ok, disapproval higher could be MoE movement.

[Tender Branson]

Arkansas - Wilson Research Strategies (R)

42% Approve
54% Disapprove

(Mike Beebe)

78% Approve
15% Disapprove

(Blanche Lincoln)

49% Approve
40% Disapprove

The poll was commissioned by Talk Business Quarterly, a magazine headed by Stephens Media columnist Roby Brock. Washington-based Wilson Research Strategies (R) surveyed 600 likely Arkansas voters by phone July 13-15.

http://arkansasnews.com/2009/08/12/poll-beebe-has-78-percent-approval-rating-lincoln-49-percent/

[Tender Branson]

Here's the complete breakdown of this Arkansas poll:

http://www.talkbusiness.net/assets/documents/TBQ309poll.pdf

Obama Favorables:

44% Favorable
51% Unfavorable

[Tender Branson]

The Rasmussen poll of Virginia is on the heel of another poll, so I call the state a tie. Arkansas? A matter of time.

Obama must in Pennsylvania about 53-47 to have a reasonable chance to win in view of the state being about D+3.

Obama is in negative territory in VA (2 polls by Rasmussen and PPP) and in NC (PPP).

The poll by R2000 for DailyKos is using "Favorables", which are normally higher and shouldn't be included in your maps ...

[Tender Branson]

Ah, but pbrower2 uses the polls that make the map look most favorable to Obama. Texas and Utah will be competitive, you see.

The UT poll is about 5 months old or so and the TX poll was a useless University poll (also months old) ...

Probably maps should only include polls that were posted here or anywhere else and which are just up to 1 month old.