The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina (PPP)

49% Approve
44% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 767 North Carolina voters from July 10th to 12th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_715.pdf

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New York (Rasmussen)

63% Approve
37% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 800 Likely Voters in New York was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 14, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/new_york/toplines_2010_new_york_governor_race_july_14_2009

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New Jersey (Monmouth University)

Registered Voters (792 RV)

59% Approve
29% Disapprove

Likely Voters (527 LV)

56% Approve
34% Disapprove

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll was conducted and analyzed by the Monmouth University Polling Institute research staff. The telephone interviews were collected by Braun Research on July 9-14, 2009 with a statewide random sample of 792 registered voters. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP26_1.pdf

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New Hampshire (R2000/DailyKos)

62% Favorable
30% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 New Hampshire Poll was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland from July 13 through July 15, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/7/15/NH/319

[Tender Branson]

Isn't Diageo a joke polling firm?

No. Their final poll on Nov. 3 had it 50-45 for Obama and they got the Congress about right.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen today:

51% Approve
49% Disapprove

Gallup yesterday:

60% Approve
33% Disapprove

[Tender Branson]

Plus: A new Mason-Dickson Nevada poll of 400 RV will be out in the next few days ...

[Tender Branson]

Washington Post/ABC News Poll:

59% Approve (D: 90, I: 58, R: 20)
37% Disapprove

And views of Obama as a “tax-and-spend Democrat” – the perception that dogged Bill Clinton in his early days – have gained 11 points since March.

More than Clinton, though, Obama is following the early course charted by Ronald Reagan, the last president to take office in the teeth of a recession. Reagan’s job approval rating fell to 57 percent near his six-month mark; Obama’s is nearly the same, 59 percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, down 10 points from his springtime peak.

The bigger concern for Obama is what came next: Reagan weakened further as the economy struggled, bottoming out at 48 percent approval after his first year in office and 42 percent at the end of his second year, shortly after unemployment hit 10.8 percent, its highest since the 1940s. It’s 9.5 percent now.

...

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 15-18, 2009, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results for the full sample have a 3.5-point error margin.

http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1092a1ObamaatSixMonths.pdf

[Tender Branson]

SurveyUSA's monthly "adult" state polls will be released in the coming days, because they are usually conducted in the middle of each month.

It's very good that we have 2 "adult" national polls out (WaPo and Gallup), which show similar results (average of 59-35 between July 15-18), giving us a good baseline to compare the SUSA state polls with the national results.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen today

gets even lower:

50% Approve
49% Disapprove

"The President earns approval from 41% of white voters, 97% of black voters, and 58% of all other voters."

[Tender Branson]

Gallup tracking: 61% approve

USA Today/Gallup poll: 55% approve

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-07-20-obama-poll-economy_N.htm

Silly question, but how can a poll show two different results from the same company...?

That has been the case before. The difference is probably due to different sample size and something that is called the Margin of Error.

The Tracking Poll has roughly 520 interviews each day.

This USAToday poll has roughly 340 interviews each day.

[Tender Branson]

Texas (Rasmussen)

47% Approve
51% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters in Texas was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 15, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_july_15_2009

[Tender Branson]

That's rather good for Obama in Texas, because Rasmussen had Obama at 51/52% approval nationally on July 15. Only 4-5% less compared with the nation is a nice showing.

[Tender Branson]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_july_15_2009
Obama:
F-47
U-46

The actual (partial) approval ratings for Obama in MN are:

38% Strongly Approve
35% Strongly Disapprove

http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/dpp/news/politics/Rasmussen_Poll_Shows_Party_Polarization_Over_Elected_Officials_july_20_2009

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New Jersey (Strategic Vision)

50% Approve
40% Disapprove

(official numbers will be released later)

[Tender Branson]

More bad polls for Obama:

ARG National Survey

Adults

52% Approve
44% Disapprove

Registered Voters

51% Approve
46% Disapprove

The results presented here are based on 1,100 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of adults 18 years and older. The interviews were completed July 17 through 20, 2009. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy

Georgia (Strategic Vision)

40% Approve
52% Disapprove

The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted July 17-19, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_072209.htm

[Tender Branson]

Associated Press/GfK (1006 adults, July 16-20)

55% Approve
42% Disapprove

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP_GfK_Poll_Politics_Economy_Topline.pdf

[Tender Branson]

From the LA poll by PPP:

Whites Approval: 25%, Obama gets 19% against Jindal and 23% against Palin

Blacks Approval: 91%, Obama gets 91% against Jindal and 92% against Palin

He got 14% against McCain, but regularly polled 20% or more among Whites before the 2008 election (Rasmussen 23%, ARG 21% and Southeastern Louisiana University 17%).

[Tender Branson]

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac University)

56% Approve
37% Disapprove

From July 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,173 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 511 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points and 512 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1351

[Tender Branson]

The first 2 states from SurveyUSA's monthly tracking have been released:

Missouri

55% Approve (+4)
42% Disapprove (-3)

Kansas

41% Approve (-8)
53% Disapprove (+4)

http://www.kctv5.com/news/20146837/detail.html

[Tender Branson]

Connecticut (Quinnipiac University)

63% Approve
32% Disapprove

Obama gets a 93 - 6 percent approval from Democrats and a 61 - 31 percent thumbs up from independent voters. Republicans disapprove 75 - 19 percent.

From July 16 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,499 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 612 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points and 384 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1353

[Tender Branson]

The new SurveyUSA polls (all conducted on July 20 among 600 state adults):

Alabama:

42% Approve (-4)
56% Disapprove (+7)

California:

66% Approve (+2)
30% Disapprove (-2)

Iowa:

56% Approve (-1)
40% Disapprove (+1)

Kansas:

41% Approve (-8)
53% Disapprove (+4)

Kentucky:

41% Approve (-6)
55% Disapprove (+4)

Minnesota:

51% Approve (-8)
46% Disapprove (+10)

Missouri:

55% Approve (+4)
42% Disapprove (-3)

New Mexico:

61% Approve (+8)
37% Disapprove (-7)

New York:

63% Approve (-2)
34% Disapprove (+4)

Oregon:

54% Approve (-2)
42% Disapprove (+1)

Virginia:

44% Approve (-15)
49% Disapprove (+13)

Washington:

56% Approve (-7)
41% Disapprove (+8)

Wisconsin:

50% Approve (-9)
45% Disapprove (+7)

[Tender Branson]

ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL HEARTLAND MONITOR NATIONAL SURVEY Conducted by FD:

56% Approve
36% Disapprove

National Sample of 1202 Adults Age 18+ (Margin of Error = +/ 2.8% in 95 out of 100 cases)
July 5-12 2009

http://www.nationaljournal.com/img/news/090723heartland2topline.pdf

[Tender Branson]

One way to explain the Virginia numbers is the drastically different composition between the June and July polls as well as the downward spiral in Obama's approval in these groups:

June:

42% Democrats (93-6 approve)
29% Republicans (27-68 disapprove)
22% Independents (44-49 disapprove)

July:

33% Democrats (83-16 approve)
32% Republicans (19-76 disapprove)
27% Independents (34-51 disapprove)

[Tender Branson]

Zogby

48% Approve
49% Disapprove

47% Excellent/Good
53% Fair/Poor

“What is troubling for the President is not only his slide with voters but that they are re-polarized. He is strong with Democrats but only has 6% approval from Republicans and 40% from Independents. Support from young voters is high (59%) but he is down several points from the margin they gave him in November 2008. His support wanes as voters get older.”

The Zogby Interactive survey of 4,470 likely voters nationwide was conducted July 21-24, 2009 and carries a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1726