The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

Gallup is back to normal levels again:

63-29 (+4, -5)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

[Tender Branson]

Wisconsin (Public Policy Polling)

55% Approve
40% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 580 Wisconsin voters on June 9th and 10th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_616.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Georgia (Strategic Vision)

49% Approve
43% Disapprove

The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted June 12-14, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_061709.htm

[Tender Branson]

HUGE SurveyUSA release (polls conducted May 30 and June 15):

Alabama:

May: 47% Approve, 51% Disapprove (-4)
June: 46% Approve, 49% Disapprove (-3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=ec90f8c3-6922-453a-9548-142faea42807

California:

May: 65% Approve, 32% Disapprove (+33)
June: 64% Approve, 32% Disapprove (+32)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c717d146-99e7-4de8-8217-9fb792fc2fb8

Iowa:

May: 66% Approve, 31% Disapprove (+35)
June: 57% Approve, 39% Disapprove (+18)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=6408b81e-dd35-4b69-9ad6-d765376ae58b

Kansas:

May: 53% Approve, 44% Disapprove (+9)
June: 49% Approve, 49% Disapprove (-)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c9cb9d95-0451-467c-8613-efb0bf5d4a7e

Kentucky:

May: 51% Approve, 45% Disapprove (+6)
June: 47% Approve, 51% Disapprove (-4)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=7821d33a-39fb-4798-bbec-849448704b72

Minnesota:

May: 61% Approve, 36% Disapprove (+25)
June: 59% Approve, 36% Disapprove (+23)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=836b59e0-2aa3-472d-a03b-0c523b7edbc9

Missouri:

May: 52% Approve, 44% Disapprove (+8)
June: 51% Approve, 45% Disapprove (+6)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=df83ddf0-e81b-4665-8845-22c2259d620e

New Mexico:

May: 62% Approve, 35% Disapprove (+27)
June: 53% Approve, 44% Disapprove (+9)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=fedc4074-c638-4e1f-8071-439470cd78cb

New York:

May: 72% Approve, 26% Disapprove (+46)
June: 65% Approve, 30% Disapprove (+35)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=a5e2c33c-bec0-49e9-9f7a-41e6c61021ff

Oregon:

May: 56% Approve, 40% Disapprove (+16)
June: 56% Approve, 41% Disapprove (+15)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

Virginia:

May: 60% Approve, 36% Disapprove (+24)
June: 59% Approve, 36% Disapprove (+23)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=160c2abe-62b7-457a-85cd-dede0055e407

Washington:

May: 63% Approve, 33% Disapprove (+30)
June: 63% Approve, 33% Disapprove (+30)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c34262fe-7152-4e56-be8d-dd7e32b0f6dd

Wisconsin:

May: 57% Approve, 39% Disapprove (+18)
June: 59% Approve, 38% Disapprove (+21)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=4073822a-e65c-48e3-8d7f-7b02fc7d5456

[Tender Branson]

Approval Map (only 1 month old polls):

[Tender Branson]

New Mexico is really suprising. Wonder what the big drop there was for.

Could be a simple outlier.

Back to 60%+ next month ...

[Tender Branson]

Pennsylvania (Rasmussen)

60% Approve
39% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 800 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 16, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/pennsylvania/toplines_2010_pennsylvania_senate_election_june_16_2009

[Tender Branson]

Virginia (R2000/DailyKos)

56% Favorable
41% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Virginia Poll was conducted from June 15 through June 17, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/6/17/VA/310

[Tender Branson]

Hawaii (R2000/DailyKos)

68% Favorable
26% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Hawaii Poll was conducted from June 15 through June 17, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/6/17/HI/311

[Tender Branson]

Yawn! It's Hawaii. No big surprise there. Don't wake me up for Vermont, Maine, DC, or Maryland.

Actually I found a recent Maine poll by Critical Insights:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?

61% Favorable
25% Unfavorable

For the current wave of the study, Critical Insights completed a total of 601 random telephone interviews across the state between May 14, 2009 and May 20, 2009.

With a sample of 601 interviews, results presented here have an associated margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points at the 90% confidence level, or ±4.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

All interviews were conducted with self-reported registered voters; final data was statistically weighted according to relevant demographics to reflect the voter base in Maine.

http://www.criticalinsights.com/assets/CriticalInsightsTrackingSurveySpring2009.pdf

[Tender Branson]

You shouldn't include polls in your map that ask for favorability instead of approval. It is usually purposely done that way to make the numbers higher.

Yeah, favourability implies that pollsters are asking about how the responsdants like Obama personally, not job wise.

Job approvals are just 2-3% lower than favorability ratings. So, in the case of Maine, where job approval was not asked and favorabilty is in the 60s, we can assume that approval is also above 50%. So we can include this as an exception.

[Tender Branson]

Michigan (Rasmussen, June 15)

59% Approve
39% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/michigan/toplines/toplines_michigan_june_15_2009

[Tender Branson]

This is interesting:

Editorial note: Gallup will not publish new Gallup Poll Daily tracking results Saturday, June 20. The next update will be Sunday, June 21.

I bet they got a word from Dear Leader. He didn’t like their results.

Or Omaha was hit by a tornado once again ...

[Tender Branson]

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html

[Tender Branson]

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html

It looks like the Mountain West states are now 50\50 on Obama, after voting for him decisively in the election. I saw a poll from New Mexico where his numbers were barely 50\50. Colorado approves of him, but not very strongly.

Can anyone explain this? My guess is that the libertarians in these states may have supported Obama on election day, but they don't support him anymore.

I think that when a lot of people voted for Obama, they were giving him a chance. They didn't agree with his views as much as they did McCain, but they wanted to see what he could do. He hasn't done a lot, and our economy is still failing, so of course they are going to go against him. Far left people are annoyed that Obama is governing to the center, and centrists think Obama is governing to the left. If this continues, I think he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2012.

It's also Mason-Dixon. They blew Nevada by almost 10% last year.

Also, the "excellent/good/fair/poor" questioning is something different to "Approve/Disapprove" ...

[Tender Branson]

Idaho (Greg Smith & Associates)

45% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

400 adult Idahoans, March 15-18

http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/boise/2009/jun/23/smith-poll-idahoans-unexcited-about-obama/

[Tender Branson]

Ohio (PPP)

51% Approve
40% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 619 Ohio voters from June 17th to 19th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Ohio_624.pdf

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (Strategic Vision)

56% Approve
38% Disapprove

The results of a three-day poll in the state of New Jersey. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in New Jersey, aged 18+, and conducted June 19-21, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_062409.htm

[Tender Branson]

New York (Quinnipiac)

67% Approve
26% Disapprove

From June 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,477 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points. The survey includes 1,048 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1341

[Tender Branson]

Texas (Texas Lyceum)

68% Approve
29% Disapprove

We interviewed Texas adults during the June 5-12 period, talking to 860 adults, 51% female, and 49% male. Three out of four said they are registered voters.

About a third of the respondents (32%) are identified as Hispanic, 11% as African American, and 54% as White.

More respondents (46%) identified themselves as Independents than as Republicans (25%) or Democrats (28%). More of those who don't identify with a party said they lean Republican (29%) than lean Democrat (22%).

Asked about their political outlook, more consider themselves Conservative (46%) than as Moderate (35%) or Liberal (19%).

http://www.texaslyceum.org/media/staticContent/PubCon_Journals/2009/TexasLyceum2009Poll_ExecutiveSummary_2010RacesAndApprovalRatings.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Texas (Texas Lyceum)

68% Approve
29% Disapprove

How the hell is that possible?

They only polled hippies ...

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina (InsiderAdvantage)

50% "favorable opinion of his job performance"
37% "unfavorable opinion of his job performance"

The InsiderAdvantage poll of 894 registered voters in North Carolina, weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation, was conducted Monday night, June 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_624_916.aspx

[Tender Branson]

Florida(Rasmussen)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 50%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/florida/toplines_election_2010_florida_senate_june_22_2009

No

Indeed.

Obama does 9% worse compared with the US (55%), but got only 2% less in the election ?

Unlikely ...

[Tender Branson]

Good news on the national front today:

Rasmussen:

56% Approve (+1)
44% Disapprove (nc)

Gallup:

61% Approve (+1)
32% Disapprove (-2)

[Tender Branson]

Pennsylvania (F&M)

55% Excellent/Good
44% Fair/Poor

56% Favorable
27% Unfavorable

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted June 16-21, 2009. The data included in this release represent the responses of 580 adult residents of Pennsylvania. The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.1 percent.

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/June%202009%20Franklin%20and%20Marshall%20College%20Poll%20Release.pdf