Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Tender Branson]

New DEM Primary Poll by PPP:

Brian Moran: 22%
Terry McAuliffe: 18%
Creigh Deeds: 15%
Undecided: 45%

PPP surveyed 740 likely Virginia Democratic primary voters from March 27th through 29th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_331.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Daily Kos/Research 2000 Virginia Poll:

If the 2009 Democratic Primary for Governor were held today which of the following would you vote for ?

Moran: 24%
McAuliffe: 19%
Deeds: 16%

If the 2009 election for Governor were held today for whom would you vote for ?

McDonnell: 37%
Moran: 36%

McDonnell: 38%
Deeds: 31%

McDonnell: 40%
McAuliffe: 33%

Favorables:

Obama: 58% favorable, 37% unfavorable
McDonnell: 48% favorable, 31% unfavorable
Deeds: 34% favorable, 30% unfavorable
Moran: 36% favorable, 33% unfavorable
McAuliffe: 35% favorable, 36% unfavorable

The Research 2000 Virginia Poll was conducted from April 6 through April 8, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Democratic primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5%.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/4/8/VA/283

[Tender Branson]

McDonnell => next VA governor.

[Tender Branson]

Latest NoVA/SUSA poll (Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties):

Moran: 43%
McAuliffe: 27%
Deeds: 20%

2,000 adults from the 4 counties were interviewed 05/29/09 through 05/31/09. Of them, 1,743 were registered to vote. Of them, 570 told SurveyUSA they were likely to vote in next Tuesday's primary. In SurveyUSA's most recent statewide survey of Virginia, this region made up 28% of the state's likely voters.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=449f08ce-6258-4086-93e7-c34e580e5572

[Tender Branson]

Get ready for Ben peeing his pants.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/02/virginia_race_is_now_a_toss_up.html

The NoVa breakdown is comparable with SUSA's findings, allthough I think PPP is including more counties than SUSA.

"He has gone from 11% in northern Virginia to 23%. With 30% of the primary electorate coming from that region that alone accounts for more than half of his jump from 20 to 27%."

Should become interesting. Hopefully Terry implodes further ...

[Tender Branson]

Latest SurveyUSA poll:

Deeds: 42%
McAuliffe: 30%
Moran: 21%



McDonnell: 47%
Deeds: 43%

McDonnell: 48%
McAuliffe: 41%

McDonnell: 49%
Moran: 38%

Filtering: 2,000 Virginia adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 06/05/07 through 06/07/09. Of them, 1,685 were registered to vote. Of them, 535 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/09/09 Democratic Primary. The primary is "open." In SurveyUSA's final turnout model, 62% of primary voters are registered Democrats, 29% are Independent, 8% are Republican. All VA registered voters were asked the November general-election hypothetical match-ups.

Effect of weighting on these results: SurveyUSA's unweighted data for this final poll shows Deeds at 44%, McAuliffe at 28%, Moran at 20%. The customary weighing adjustment that SurveyUSA makes to all research, to ensure that data reflect the geography being surveyed, took away 2 points from Deeds, added 2 points to McAuliffe, and added 1 point to Moran. All 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls were conducted identically.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ed18269c-1bcf-4742-80c7-be56a1edd29d

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen:

Deeds leads !

Creigh Deeds (D): 47%
Robert McDonnell (R): 41%

Forty-two percent (42%) say Deeds, a state representative from Bath County, is also more likely to win in November, while 34% give the edge to McDonnell.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Virginia Democrats now favor Deeds over McDonnell while McDonnell has the support of 78% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McDonnell has a seven-point lead.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of state voters have at least a somewhat favorable view of Deeds, including 22% very favorable. Twenty-seven percent (27%) regard him unfavorably, with nine percent (9%) very unfavorable.

McDonnell is also viewed at least somewhat favorably by a majority of voters (52%), with 19% who have a very favorable opinion of him. Twenty-eight percent see the Republican unfavorably, including eight percent (8%) very unfavorable.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election

[Tender Branson]

New R2000 poll for DailyKos:

McDonnell (R): 45%
Deeds (D): 44%

The Research 2000 Virginia Poll was conducted from June 15 through June 17, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/6/17/VA/310

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen to be out with a new VA poll @ 5pm ...

[Tender Branson]

New Washington Post (Aug. 11-14) poll out today:

Registered Voters:

McDonnell: 47%
Deeds: 40%

Likely Voters:

McDonnell: 54%
Deeds: 39%

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_081609.html

[Tender Branson]

PPP is in the field in VA right now and says that Deeds is polling a bit better so far compared with their poll last month, but is still down by a considerable margin.

FYI: Their last poll was Deeds-14.

[Tender Branson]

Clarus Research Group:

McDonnell: 42%
Deeds: 37%

10-14 September 2009, 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/va_mcdonnell_42_deeds_37_claru.php

[Tender Branson]

Washington Post:

McDonnell: 51%
Deeds: 47%

"In Northern Virginia, where statewide Democrats have been successful but Deeds was slow to win support, he now leads McDonnell, 57 to 40 percent, among likely voters. In the innermost Washington suburbs, Deeds leads 63 to 34 percent. A month ago, the two men were running about even in Northern Virginia."

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as governor?

59% Approve
38% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

53% Approve
47% Disapprove

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone September 14-17, 2009, among a random sample of 1,003 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Sample:

32% DEM
29% REP
34% IND
5% Others

39% IND/Others (19% REP, 12% DEM, 8% No Lean)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/19/AR2009091902552.html

[Tender Branson]

New InsiderAdvantage poll:

McDonnell: 48%
Deeds: 44%

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27543.html

[Tender Branson]

New PPP poll:

McDonnell: 48%
Deeds: 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_929717.pdf

And Sen. Mark Warner with a spot for Deeds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Qm42PeCJ4o

Former Gov. Linwood Holton (R) also endorsed Deeds.

[Tender Branson]

New WaPo poll:

McDonnell: 53%
Deeds: 44%

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 4-7, 2009, among a random sample of 1,001 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_100709.html

[Tender Branson]

Latest Mason-Dixon poll:

McDonnell: 48%
Deeds: 40%

The Mason-Dixon findings are based on telephone interviews conducted Tuesday through Thursday with 625 likely voters. The partisan split in the poll is 32 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican and 30 percent independent.

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/10/mcdonnell-8-points-new-masondixon-poll

[Tender Branson]

Washington Post endorses Creigh Deeds.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/17/AR2009101701477.html

[Tender Branson]

PPP is polling Virginia again this weekend and so far they say it looks like last week (R+12).

[Tender Branson]

New Washington Post poll to be released later today.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah that's true.  You spend your days furiously reloading Atlas instead.

I'm sorry but that excuse isn't going to fly.  Tender Branson or persons xyz are always over here right away if the result is favorable to Democrats.

Man, I´m from Europe. When that poll came out I was sleeping ...

[Tender Branson]

3 new polls out today:

Research 2000

McDonnell: 54%
Deeds: 44%

Suffolk University (Oct. 26-28)

McDonnell: 52%
Deeds: 40%

Roanoke College (Oct. 21-27)

McDonnell: 53%
Deeds: 36%

[Tender Branson]

New Mason-Dixon stuff for Governor out (probably) tomorrow.

Lieutenant Governor: Bill Bolling (R) 47%, Jody Wagner (D) 34%

Attorney General: Ken Cuccinelli (R) 46%, Steve Shannon (D) 32%

http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/POLL31_20091030-223207/302801/

[Tender Branson]

Mason Dixon:

McDonnell: 53%
Deeds: 41%

http://static.mgnetwork.com/rtd/pdfs/20091101_poll.pdf

[Tender Branson]

YouGov/Polimetrix (internet poll):

McDonnell: 53%
Deeds: 40%

http://twitter.com/MysteryPollster